Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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We need one of those @Stovepipe "The Euro is Rolling" trucks in a moment.
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Yeah, it is worth post if nothing more for posterity. 57" in West Virginia on that run. Not sure I have seen that in the East for a run.
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Somewhere in West Virginia had 57" of snow modeled on that run(Kuchera). Our mountains only had like 33-36."
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The snow map for the 12z GFS run is going be pretty stout.
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I agree. Used to, it was pretty much the second best model for tracking storms. Hopefully it is playing catch-up. It has struggled this winter though. Not sure why.
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What we want to see is DC involved. Seems like when they are involved, we see part of those storms. That said, this storm basically cuts due north from Savannah. Going to be a powerhouse IF that is correct. Lots of momentum being created/expended with a turn that sharp.
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Seems like the UK whiffed on the last storm erroneously.
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Hot off the press. 12z GEFS on left. 6z GEFS on right.
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Little trick on the TT website, just switch it over to the MSLP/precip. Nice pass on that run as well.
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There is very little room left for this to trend north or we will switch from priming snow shovels to liquid snow. That would be the word of caution. What will be interesting to see is if this is just a trend west or a trend to a MUCH larger storm. If that track is legit, have to think that sharp of a turn would result in a more snow/precip than modeled on the western fringe after the turn is made.
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Just post the one with the most. Weather hobby unspoken rule right there. LOL.
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GFS out to 128 says, "Hammer time!"
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Some are really going to like this run.
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Looks at 90 to be slightly (very slightly) north and east of 6z...could just be a precip shield difference vs change in the vort.
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12z ICON has changed to a southern pass and slightly inland runner.
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Out to 69, the 500 vort maps seem to have the storm digging slightly more to the west. We will see where this goes. If true, might give it slightly more room to come inland.
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12z GFS is rolling.
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We need this to really dig or this is going to easily be a Carolina special. I remember some storms like this back in either the late 90s or early 2000s where the snow line stopped right at the top of the Apps. I had to go to Carvers Gap to see snow!!! LOL.
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I just don't see an inland runner that gets inside of Hatteras, maybe e26 is closest which looks similar to the one off Hatteras by WxBell. The operational "I think" is on the far western side of its own suite. But again, the operational could be catching the trend first, and that wouldn't surprise me.
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So the real question is whether the 6z GFS, which is on the far west side of its own suite, is on to something in terms of a trend? I definitely like where the Euro was heading at 6z. All eyes to 12z. It is quite plausible that the operationals are leading the way on this. My only concern with the GFS is that it got a bit too "wound up" during the last two systems. It overdid precip badly in NE TN. The one positive is that it was about 2-3 runs ahead of the Euro in identifying trends 2-3 days out even if it was too wound up.
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No Miller As on the 6z GEFS that I can see. Unfortunately, the SLP placement inside Hatteras is not there nor is the timing. I can't find a single MSLP member that tracks inland or moves as slow as the operational. Now that said, when the 6z Euro ended its run at 90 on WxBell, it was digging out West in the same way the GFS did at 6z. Second image is the slp placement on the GFS. The first image is the GEFS hour which has the closes cluster to the coast. The rest are pretty far away from the coast. Now, E TN can still get snow without the 6z GFS low placement. That particular solution doesn't have support yet. We really need this to dig to the west if we want a Miller A. That said, a system dropping through TN and building a slp along the coast would give SE areas an opportunity as well.
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While the 6z GFS is a great run, it has absolutely zero support from GEFS mslp low placement. Let's see if it is on to a trend. I would think if it was trending NW, that at least a few members would represent that operational run. Fun run though!
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Now, take the northwest jog of the last storm and apply it to this one. IF(and it is a big IF) the 6z GFS is correct, a 987mb slp west of Hatteras is going to throw back more moisture than was presented.
