Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I will have to go look in the SE forum. I have an old friend who works for ESPN, and we had been discussing the big storm for Charlotte. It definitely looked like model feedback, but if I remember correctly, most modeling had crazy amounts. He was HOT when that one busted. -
Yeah, at this range deterministic runs will have a lot of variation. But the signal is what I am looking for. I am just looking for some consistency across modeling that we are in the game, and we are at this point. I also know, that can change in a heartbeat. I once watched 2-4'(feet is right!) modeled for Upstate South Carolina, and it busted badly even during the storm. So, we know the drill. LOL. On a serious note, that amount of freezing rain could be a huge problem, especially w/ the cold which follows on the CMC. Not quite sure I want to reel that one in......
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Indeed, I have doing this a long time, and have seen many do exactly that(bust at this range). Busts at this latitude are plentiful regarding frozen precip. And the -30F wind chill event was modeled well at 7-8 days out. I have said this many times, if you want to be right 95% of the time during winter....call for rain at this latitude. Chasing snow is risky.
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And ALL of it could go to the Ohio River valley. That is plausible. However, December is a great example of how it can go the other way - cold and dry. I like the active STJ and cold. That is a good combination for frozen precip in the Upper South, and even Mid-South. Plenty can and will change, but it is worth tracking.
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The GFS and CMC diverge drastically after d7. The 12z GFS sends the boundary to the Ohio River Valley after plentiful snow and ice across the mid and upper south. The CMC actually depresses the boundary further and ends w/ ice in Atlanta. Very cold air is incredibly difficult for modeling to account for. Often it sits below 500mb, and creeps further than modeling depicts, and the CMC is a good example of that scenario. The SER is also a wild card and the GFS is a good example of that.
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The 12z CMC has nearly an identical setup. Again, we all know this is seven days out on the CMC(not eight), and it is the only game in town. Most of us are here during winter to track winter storms. It sure beats tracking mid 70s(and that is on the horizon BTW). This signal has shown up repeatedly on modeling for days to various extents. Does it verify? Who knows, but that is as good a signal as we have had this winter. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But we can certainly enjoy tracking a potential weather event without the caveats. We all should know them by now. It is rare that we all get winter at the same time. So, if this goes to middle and west TN, I celebrate for them(though I definitely pull for snow IMBY).
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That would be a terrible ice storm for SW TN, northern MS, NE Arkansas, etc.
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Yeah, that looks like big winter storm on that run - ice, snow, sleet, overrunning.
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Indeed, at 189 light wintry precip is breaking out across the forum area. Let's see where this goes.
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Looks like an incoming storm at 186.
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Not sure where the 12z GFS goes after 180, but a HP in the Plains/Midwest which is sitting over the top of a low in TX is not a bad setup.
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Gusts here have been 30+mph which is the forecast by MRX for MBY.- 923 replies
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Just looking at ensembles. This is just a blend......Cold arrives in the northwest corner of the forum area around Jan 31st and gets to NE TN on Feb 2nd or 3rd. We are looking at a very strong cold front taking ~72 hours to traverse the forum area. Think about how quickly the December front moved across the state - FAST! This front is going to be crawling if modeling is anywhere close to being correct. That gives ample time for short waves to run that front. A slow crawling, strong cold front is part of the recipe for over-running. The way we don't see wintry precip, and it is certainly plausible, is the over-running heads to the Ohio River Valley as that fits climatology and the Nina induced SER flexes. The way we get wintry precip is for the front to at least get past the MS before stalling or slowing down, and Nino induced BN heights win the day in the Upper South. The way we get snow/ice for the entire state is for the system to move slowly and not stall. My guess is this stalls on the Plateau, and then pushes across as cold air builds. For E TN, we need a system to run that front right as the cold air press past. One last note, the MJO during January is warm for phase 3. However, it correlates to cold during February. As we have one foot in January and one foot in February, it is possible that aspect of climatology might be causing some variation as well. IDK. But as we traverse phase 3 during that time, and it possibly stalling there, the Jan result and Feb result of that phase of the MJO are way different. The ECM BC(Euro ensemble bias corrected) never leaves phase 3 for the entirety of its run. It spends 360 hours in a phase that has two different results depending on whether it is Jan or Feb. BTW, I am not sure I am buying what the Euro BC is celling. Throw in the transition ENSO state and MJO in a phase with two different results depending on the month, I think this is likely why we are seeing some wild swings in modeling.
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Overnight modeling looks quite similar to the thread assessment that CPC released yesterday - the area of low probability for wintry precip. That is the line on deterministic modeling from overnight.
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My guess is that when any model says that the MJO is heading for the warm phases...it is probably headed there. The GFS had it first. The Euro EMON takes it in the week phases. The GFS, as fallible as it has become, has been able to sniff out warm spells as it may be modeling the area around Indonesia and the IO better. IDK. The MJO signal has also been weak for about a month which makes it tougher. I do think it will take a tour through the warm phases. Amplitude is the question for me at this point. The Euro yesterday gives us some hope that it won't, but it is on an island at this point. I think, as noted to start this thread, we will see a big warm-up mid month, and then it rotates into 8 for late Feb and early March.
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This will take some time to sort out.........................
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I was expecting to see no wintry precip on modeling at all this AM after reading all of the overnight comments. LOL. The 0z Euro, 0z CMC, and 6z GFS all have a winter storm signal between Jan31-Feb4 for at least middle and west TN. The Euro has it for the entire region. Long way to go as CMC, which is the earliest, is still 6 days away. Ensembles at this range are the key. Operationals are pretty much just one member of the ensemble. We have said this many times, but the setup with this reminds me of the west TN snow and ice storm from a couple of years ago. Right now, it is timing of the front and short waves along that front which is no easy task. It is worth noting that modeling at this range can and does change at the drop of a hat. That we are still in it at this range is a good thing.
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I read over in the MA forum that they have had internet issues and then also supercomputer issues w/ the Euro. Not holding my breath this go around with the Euro. At this rate, its 18z run might be running at the same time. LOL. Not a fun day in the Euro met offices!!!!
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This is a 10day temp map. Cold temps are modeled to surge past the cold air boundary shown. This is just a map in order to talk potential storm track IF the cold and STJ verify. Again, this is at range, so please be aware of that. Maybe I should write "experimental map." LOL.
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MJO progression is up for some debate. American modeling takes the tour. The Euro has been stubbornly refusing to take the tour. Most modeling stalls for a short time in phase 3 which is cold NW but cold temps surging into the SE. Pretty good correlation! I think we see a tour of debatable amplitude into the warm phases, but it looks relatively quick. It will be interesting to see it the cold overcomes the MJO in the Upper South. That is rare, but it can happen. I suspect it may have happened during one of those analog years above(but I need to check that). Anyway, this looks like a good blend of the Euro deterministic and American modeling. This is the Weeklies progression. If it gets back to 8, that to me is a very Nino signal.
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The 12z Euro is rolling....we don't get to say that every day at 4:05PM. If it is a crap bucket full of warm temps, I am calling this an off run.
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Some good nuggets from the CPC this afternoon. Take a look at those analogs. You can see the storm track on their d8-14 forecasts.... temp, precip, and risk of heavy snow maps.
