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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    This was a textbook over-running event in west TN. When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all. Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area. Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM. The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was. Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary. The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That sound about right. I am watching the timeframe of Feb11-14 as a cold front(timing TBD) is rolling under that big ridge. It would be thread the needle, but is the only game in town after the ice storm.
  3. Carvers Gap
    So, January(after crazy warmth) would close with an ice storm in middle and west TN. West TN, Arkansas, northern MS....those regions appear to have had it the worst. The ice storm would roll into February as it has one foot in one month and one in another. There is a thread dedicated to this event.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that snow storm in the LR is hurting my warm-up.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It is going to likely get warm - almost a certainty. The trick is can we score a snowfall during a warm-up. February is the kind of month where that can happen. Absolutely no promises on my part...this is a stretch, but still interesting.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba.
  7. Carvers Gap
    JB mentioned it yesterday. He said it reminded him of 2018. Man, nothing like a good strat split to end the month and extend winter into April. LOL. I am going to put up my hoop house this week just so I can hear the strat crackle.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS shows the trough amplification. The EPS shows a weakness. In the force that slips beneath our latitude on the 11th.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I mean it is going to very likely get warm. But a cold front is pretty much our best shot during a warm pattern. I suspect it will be marginal at best, but you never know.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I am mildly interested in the timeframe around Feb 11th. That is a possible seasonal cold front. Most runs have been not had much cyclogenesis along the front...but never know.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It is early in west TN! I did see a post on FB that Rutherford Co bridges and overpasses are very slick and should be avoided. Interstate interchange there is a sheet of ice.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Gopher wood supply chain issues. Better stock up now! And that is great to hear! Hey, if Alabama wants to pay the bills, I think that is great! My former grocery bagger was telling me that his wife used to have a little heater they took to practices and games for early season baseball. They set their blanket on fire! LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Textbook La Nina 90d temp anomaly signature. The Mountain West temps are well below normal.
  14. Carvers Gap
    They hit -44F south of Cokeville, WY, this morning and -35F in Afton, WY.
  15. Carvers Gap
  16. Carvers Gap
    I think spring will be ok. Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring. The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those). About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down! LOL. Hope the soccer is going well!
  17. Carvers Gap
    I would give it about a 75% of doing a full rotation through the warm phases at relatively low amplitude and be back in the cold phases by the last week of the month. Some plots take it into 4 and then it goes into the COD. But given the actual precip plumes in Indonesia....the warm phase rotation looks likely. Feb10-24 for that roughly.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at weather underground obs for Smyrna, looks like freezing temps are right at the I-65 corridor. You all have an ESE wind. Theirs is from the northwest. If your wind switches and comes out of the west or north....that might be telling.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Icicles add effect, eh? And no, I didn't add those. LOL. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/memphis-tn-38111
  20. Carvers Gap
    So, just for folks working back though these threads during later years(me included), ice storm warnings envelope west TN and WAAs extend to the eastern Plateau, Arkansas, northern MS, KY, and SW VA. Models are trending colder with the storm. The cold air is pressing vs getting warmer. There is a separate thread regarding this winter weather event.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Radar is lit.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I noticed how cold it was in Memphis...much colder than modeled for today. They aren't even sniffing 32F during the middle of the day there. So, that tells me that air mass is very cold and very low to the ground likely. I also noticed WWAs were extended to the very eastern edge of the Plateau and just to my north. So, I decided to read the afternoon discos...and low and behold, modeling has trended much colder for the northern valley. The big show is stilll west and middle TN. What is coming in right now is moderate to heavy ZR there. I hope for their sake it is sleet. For our region, we are the very last wave regarding the snow. Though, tonight it could flirt light wintry precip(nuisance stuff here). That last wave is pressing east and south with each passing run.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12k NAM is picking up on frozen precip on Thursday. It has 3-4" of snow in TRI for that timeframe. And that has been on that model for several runs. I just never went to the middle of the run. Sorry to the middle and west folks for posting meager amounts here. I won't hijack the thread w/ E TN stuff. If it gets more realistic, I will just build another thread. This is Thursday night. Incoming RGEM has frozen precip as well...
  24. Carvers Gap
    It looks NASTY! Keep us updated.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Even MBY is now getting a mention for some freezing precip tonight and tomorrow. Man, it is straight nasty out there right now. From MRX and pay special attention to that big middle paragraph if you live in E TN: National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Key Message: Light wintry precipitation, especially in the form of freezing rain, is becoming more likely for the northern Plateau and portions of southwest Virginia. Light ice accumulation expected in these areas. Discussion: Currently the gloomy weather is continuing across the area, even though most of the precipitation has diminished or moved east of the Appalachian Mountains. We`ll have a break in precipitation this afternoon before more isentropic rain begins to move in from the west/southwest this evening. With this next round of precipitation coming overnight the temperatures will drop to near or below freezing along the Cumberland Plateau, and parts of NE Tennessee, and SW Virginia. Atmospheric soundings continue to show a moderate warm nose overnight leading to somewhat favorable conditions for light freezing rain in parts of the area. Have remained close to NBM/WPC/HRRR/HREF forecasts with regards to total ice accumulations. Most favorable areas for ice to accumulate will be in the northern Cumberland Plateau over into SW Virginia where the shallow layer of cold air will penetrate the most. Some models and guidance have the cold air making into the eastern TN valley, but local research and historical trends indicate that this shallow layer or near surface cold air really struggles to make it up and over the plateau and local mountains/ridgetops. Forecast soundings seem to indicate this shallow layer of sub-freezing air stops less than 2,000 above the valley surface. Traditionally we need sub freezing temperatures in place already to see decent freezing rain accumulations on the ground. With temperatures currently in the 50/40`s this seems unlikely at this time, but can`t rule out some very light isolated icing on trees and other elevated surfaces in the northern Valley. With that being said, places along and west of the plateau have a much better chance to see accumulations, but based on QPF amounts it it looks likely that amounts hopefully remain less than 0.10" with isolated higher amounts. With that being said, will go with a Winter Weather Advisory for several counties on the Plateau, up into SW Virginia where there is the highest chance to see ice on the ground.
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