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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Afternoon disco from the NWS Memphis: By Wednesday Night into Thursday, the cold front will begin to sink into the Mid-South as a SFC low pressure develops across Texas and tracks northeastward. A second wave of precipitation is expected to occur as the SFC low moves northeastward and an upper trough moves into the region. Arctic air will also be plunging into the region behind the front. The big question remains on how far south the front will be as the SFC low tracks northeastward along the front into the Mid-South. The 12Z GFS is much further north with the front than the previous run. However, looking at the GFS ensembles 19 of the 30 members show arctic air impinging through at least Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by 12Z Thursday. The Canadian is further south with the frontal position by 12Z Thursday. The 12Z ECMWF is somewhere between. Behind the front, there may remain a warm layer just above the surface to produce a freezing rain scenario across this region. If the front is further south or the arctic air is much deeper, freezing rain may turn over to sleet. These transition zones will likely move from west to east on Thursday as the front sags southeast. Still too early to pinpoint exact precip types and amounts until there is more confidence in where the front will be exactly located. However, do think there is a potential for ice and sleet accumulations to occur somewhere in the CWA. Precipitation may change to snow briefly before precipitation cuts off. Arctic high pressure will build into the region behind the system. Locations that receive winter accumulations will likely see temperatures struggle to get above freezing at least on Friday. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has picked up on the weekend system. It is nuisance variety stuff. It also kind of doubled down on the potential icing situation in the western forum area for mid/late week. Comparison slides...18z vs 12z GFS. Midweek system: Next weekend:
  3. Carvers Gap
    Modeling still appears to be on track for a reloading of the cold pattern(it is actually still cold...just referring to the brief warm-up to begin Feb). The first week of Feb has generally been a non-starter for me. The fact that we are potentially looking at another winter storm for west TN during that time frame is a bonus(if one actually wants to call ice a bonus!). The second and third weeks of February is the bonus window in my book. No way to really talk about details this far out, but the pattern looks like a potential producer. That could change as we are still 7-8 days from that reload of the cold/stormy pattern. Without getting into a ton of detail, I will just say that time frame (maybe even extending to the end of Feb) looks good. What is being depicted is a continuation of a base cold pattern. TRI will almost certainly end up BN for January, and that will likely include four straight weeks of BN temps from Jan 4th-31st. That warm December was distant memory yesterday morning when I took a run at Sequoyah Hills Park in Knoxville with wind chills hovering around 12 degrees as a brisk breeze hustled off the Tennessee River. While the snow originally modeled for the Jan20-30th timeframe certainly didn't deliver for many in the E TN valleys...the cold certainly did. February is starting to have that look as well, BUT while January can often have dry spells...February is almost the opposite.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I remember that. You have been on your game!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Impressive totals.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The system I am watching is the one after the cutter. On both the GFS and EPS, a system takes the low road next weekend. It would be a minor/moderate event if it holds... That time frame is next Sunday into Monday. It is not a slam dunk. As we have seen on modeling, those bone dry patterns at LR have been shown to have systems embedded like yesterday. The CFS Feb look (see temps above) has AN precip for Feb. The week after this upcoming one has potential. The good thing about the Euro folding to the GFS....seems like the GFS has been able to handle storms on medium/LR modeling better than the Euro.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is less enthused about colder temps, but the 500 pattern looks really good. The CFS seasonal is now cold for February. Usually the last runs of the previous month carry significant weight. I think the pattern after the cutter through maybe even the end of the month looks very good.
  8. Carvers Gap
    This is a look which is found on the GEPS and also to some extent on the EPS. This is very similar to the look which signaled the blizzard that just took place along the eastern seaboard. Talked to my sister-in-law in NE Maine. They had gusts to 77mph and 18" of snow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I concur with Robert's remarks from WxSouth. We had begun that conversation at the end of the old January thread. The pattern will very likely be active, and it looks very cold after this brief warm-up. Huge bonus considering what modeling had shown originally which was a warm pattern and a break to spring. Now, it looks like a legit winter wx pattern.
  10. Carvers Gap
    We were in Knoxville yesterday for a band event at UT. That NE streak on I81 laid down a lot of snow on the interstate. We went rom nothing to lots of snow(snow had fallen the night before...we saw the aftermath) to a winter wonderland in about one mile. Then, the interstate went down to one line. There were a couple of tractor/trailers jackknifed. By the time we hit the Jeff City exit on I-40 it was pretty much gone. I had to put the vehicle in 4WD on the interstate. Super sketch conditions.
  11. Carvers Gap
    From WxSouth on FB: The period I'm particularly watching is about February 10th on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high. The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts. It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South.
  12. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, we have a new weather teleconnection/model. It is called the HHIW(Hoop House in Winter) model. It seems to be more effective than the TIMS. We built the garden hoop house yesterday. About 26 hours later, I had to go shake it in order to get the snow off of it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Heavy dusting here. It is often difficult to tell what is going to make it over the mountains between KY/VA. Bands can be pretty random at times.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Really what I look for is energy in the jet and whether it passes to our south. If that is the case, we have a shot at wintry precip. Looks like a couple of chances between now and Feb 7th. Next weekend is a timeframe to watch. I tend to think middle and west TN would have a really good chance with this. Some runs send it to your west. Some press the boundary very quietly southeastward. Just watch where the cold air sets up and that is where the energy is going to slide along. System after that is the one that has potential though if it doesn't get overly suppressed. As I noted earlier, February systems tend to be under modeled. They often will gain strength over time on modeling. Also, clippers can pack a punch during February for the same reason.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yes. Out that far, I don't really do details unless just bored. It is almost a continual stream of moisture. It is basically the same set-up (just a different variation) of what has been shown for days. For me the question (as it was with the blizzard this weekend) is where it will occur. I won't say it is a given, but modeling has that look on almost every run.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS sure likes like a multi-day over-running event. It looks like a more traditional event than last year. The front pushes and the firehose is pointed at the boundary as it presses(vs stalls like last year).
  17. Carvers Gap
    Snow shower here on reasonably strong winds. Won't last long, but fun to watch.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Awesome info. And yes, the Ms are suspicious. I am fine taking a swing at that type of pattern, even if we miss. Honestly, after looking at the 12z GFS....I will be ready for spring if that is even close to correct. For everyone else, you can thank me...I went out and set up my hoop house for the garden and got the cold frames out yesterday. I turned the garden over with the tiller. I am going to try to get some cold crop stuff in the ground early - or not. The thought crossed my mind that snow could be a problem for the hoop house, but I forged ahead anyway. LOL. Honestly, I try to get those out about 2 weeks prior to planting cold crops. They warm the ground up. The BIG problem...if the GFS/CMC are right, it will be tough to do much in the way of gardening. I am good with snow...just no ice on the hoop house, which means ice is coming. LOL. My hoop house and cold frames are out early, but the reality is that it may not matter. Fun story, I told you all about fingers getting cold from working in the frozen raised beds. My wedding ring fell off, and I didn't notice it. I used a metal detector to find it. You might ask why I have a metal detector around the house. I have had to find it before in the garden. This marks 3 times finding it in the garden. Once, I lost it for a year and a half...it was in the garage under a shelf. We moved some stuff, and there it was. Tolkien would be proud.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Strong cold signal on both the 12 CMC and GFS. CMC is very dry which is similar to the Jan '84 analog. The GFS is storm. However, BOTH have mechanisms in place to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies eastward. If modeling handles this like they did the Jan 20-30th, the cold is over-done but the storm track remains active. Just because we didn't get hammered between the 20-30th, doesn't mean it wasn't stormy. We just missed on a couple which happens during the winter more often than not. If those models are correct and if snow precedes the cold shot...record lows are on the table.
  20. Carvers Gap
    ...and to further add. We take cold in February and roll the dice. The storm pattern looks reasonably active, and confluence appears over this region for this go around. That is still in the 7-10 day range, so it could change. However, when the GFS begins to show multiple storms in the LR(on the same run...run after run), there is a good chance someone connects.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The really strong cold has been a mirage on recent modeling - meaning it hasn't verified. That said, we are looking at a gradient pattern where the cold runs west-> east in a horizontal line. It does this repeatedly. All we need is one system to ride that gradient, and we get a potent system. No idea if that verifies, but anything close would result in multiple storms to track I would think.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is loaded for bear yet again.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yes. Good call. I remember that now. I remember riding in the backseat of my parents car, and the inside of the windows were frozen. LOL. Yeah, those late 90s dates I stay away from. You may already have seen this...those late 90s dates have been in their analog packages for much of the month of January. I think they must be using them to buffer the extreme cold runs which are not verifying often.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Re: 6z GEFS snow totals....I count ~14/30 members with 6" or more for NE TN w/ plenty of big dogs. That was a good run.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Pacific dominated ridging without Atlantic blocking is cutter city. It is why folks in middle and west TN like the PNA/EPO ridges. We(in E TN) really need Atlantic blocking to accentuate the pattern here. That said a combo of a cutter and a caboose system following will suffice or a 50/50 low. Also, if we get a ridge out west which isn't too tall, we can get clippers or northern stream systems. In E TN it is more of a nickel and dime your way to average approach. ...All of that said, the 6s GEFS has really beefed up its snow mean. I suspect (certainly don't guarantee) that February could be a good month. February of 14-15 was really good. CPC has flipped us cold for the second week of January. Here are the analogs for the d8-14. I accidentally found this analog a couple of days ago when I entered in January 85 as January 84. January 84 is nearly a perfect analog. @John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84? I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong. It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.
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