Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The NAM at range has a biased of being amped. Word of caution there, and I know you all know that. That is for new folks. That could easily trend SE if it sobers up. But again, this is more of closing off vs just synoptically riding an inbound front. So, the NAM "could" be correct as the closing off point is not at 84, but earlier in the run. -
That is an exceptionally great set-up if legit...at range gives me pause. That is how you get a big winter storm. The likelihood of somebody in the SE getting hammered is growing.
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Man, IDK. Old model biases are out the window this winter. I tend to think we want it just to our southwest given the trend all winter of storms coming back west(some bigly so). That said, Fountain makes a great point about when it closes off being key. By tomorrow at this time, we need to be right in the middle of that cone, and not the westward edge of guidance. Two things have helped me this winter. Don't trust the GFS d10+ w/ cold. Trust it more than the Euro inside of d5. If this event gets more extreme(higher totals), the GFS is probably more likely to get this right(John's rule). The GFS actually caught the southeast trend first, and was an extreme outlier....until it was likely right. So, I lean GFS right now...but I do take notice when the Euro backs west like it did at 6z. It is often adjusts first to that westward trend. Used to one could just say the GFS is too progressive, and it is coming northwest. One could also say the Euro is wound up to much and will jog southeast....Those old rules don't apply as much. For now, I would just blend the ensembles. That gives us I-81/I-75 as the western edge of guidance....for now. Downsloping would eat a bunch of that up on the western slopes of the Apps. Western NC looks prime w/ E TN the big question mark.
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The 6z GEFS and EPS individuals. FTR, the GEPS(Canadian) is mostly nothing, and a few hits to the Carolinas.
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The 6z Euro control(and I checked) picks up almost exactly where the operational stops. For those new to the Euro off-run, it doesn't go out as far. So, you have to look at the control run of the ensemble to see where it would have gone. It is waaaay west from 0z.
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The 6z Euro ensemble ups totals for E TN and the Plateau. The control is big. The GFS, if it is right, is a NC special. The Euro is not there yet, but it had trouble w/ the last storm. It was far, far too far to the northwest. OTH, the GFS was to far to the SE and blew thermal profiles until the last minute.
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The 18z GEFS individual members are clustered around North Carolina...very few for E TN. But if this thing keeps jogging eastward, we may need some room. Wishing 24-36 hours, this thing is likely to lock in though. The EPS at 18z is a nice uptick.
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That is awesome VolMan! Great photos! As for the 18z GFS, is it going to flirt with a Miller A?
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On the super long range front, I have been trying to find a model by week 4 which doesn't have a strong -NAO. That is likely the strat warm stuff kicking in. Still a long way out there, and modeling has missed on this during Jan...but there it is. I said this yesterday, I still don't see Spring on modeling yet.
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I think there is a very real chance that MBY may get more snow after Feb18th than it did prior to that.
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We may be stealing some Nino climatology here at the end of winter. When I look at modeling, there is a tendency for weakness in heights over the SE. It takes a couple of systems cutting to our west, but the boundary (at times in the LR) presses Southeast of us. Fountain has some great posts above. That set-up is likely due in part to Nino climatology.
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LOL. So my youngest daughter was born in Jan of 2013. We took her home from the hospital and just about couldn't get into the neighborhood as rain changed to snow. It was about a seven mile drive. We left the hospital while it as raining and spitting snow. As we got her to the door, the sky flashed and it began to thunder as the snow just poured down. I had left sub plans left at school, but didn't put the early dismissal procedures in the folder as I did not expect this! I quickly called school to make sure the sub had some guidance. Busses were stuck on Skyland Drive here in town. It was a glorious mess.
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Yep....modeling is hinting at phase 8 again(w/ a loop in that phase to boot). It looks like this initiates sometime between Feb 17-21. I would think that is a window(or beginning of a window) for yet another round of wintry temps/precip for our forum area.
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Probably 2013 for rate driven snow IMBY. It caught our schools system by surprise. We had busses stuck everywhere. Yes, crazy run of the 6z GFS. It looked a bit wonky at the surface as it tried to recurve near Hatteras. At 500, it looks clean but is a big break from continuity.
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El Nino winters = winter begins about the time we are ready for spring............just a preview of next winter.
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In the same way that Nina winters find ways not to snow during Jan/Feb....Nino springs find ways not be warm until mid-late May.
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Yeah, that guy runs a great page. He runs StarValleyWx in western WY. It is just a small webpage outfit. I believe he used to work at the Sever Wx Storm Center in Oklahoma. He runs a great website. His webcams are awesome. I am definitely a winter wx junkie! I loosely track winter storms out there just for fun(and I don't post about those).
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And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty.
