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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy, Kingsport got almost nothing - maybe an 1" or 2". I got into work the next morning, and a friend of mine called in sick(pre mass cell phone ownership) who lived in JC. He said he wasn't coming into work in Kingsport for 4-5 days, because of the damage done to his house. By the time I heard this, the ground was bare in Kingsport. We thought he was pulling our legs until news footage game out of Johnson City. They got smashed. I am not sure Sullivan got too much snow from that one. Although, we had another similar event maybe the year prior or year after where we got slammed and JC did not. JC got the change over due to rates, and we had a lot of mix. In just this one case, that might be a legit observation from TRI. But as you and I have noted and documented, the snow record during the 90s has been tampered with - no other nice way to say it. For either Jan or Feb 96, they had(hope that is fixed now) missing data for a major storm. I actually found their map that they had made, and they wouldn't use it to update the missing data. That conversation occurred many years ago. What happened served to depress our snowfall totals during the 90s. @Holston_River_Rambler, awesome radar!
  2. Carvers Gap
    I had a couple, but I don't think they fit they answer. It's complicated.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 is now honking that this pattern will not reset after the potential big storm. The heat will rebound, but the heights are shown to be ejected out of HB. That opens the door for the trough to slide eastward and the much talked about PNA ridge goes nuts later this month. Some pretty major changes today by that model. Is it right and will the trends hold on a highly variable model? We will see. The 12z EPS is seeing something as it likely has members which are moving the cold eastward. Its ensemble also pushed the HB block out. It is difficult to tell if it resets or goes to something new. Judging by this look, there are a couple of possibilities. A faint phase 8-1-2 there? Maybe. Is it right? We will see.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro indeed has a storm just after 200. For southwest VA, that run was decent...It is worth mention as this is ten days out and other modeling has it. IMHO, the floor for this window is obviously nada. There is a pretty high ceiling. They system cuts southeast from St Louis, through middle/west TN towards the SC Piedmont, and off shore of Savanah in almost a straight line. Welcome to funky blocking tracks. Long way to go. Here are the slides just because there is no other game in town. One key component of several of the runs at 12z is HP over the top. This is a great example of how a pattern can have AN heights, but the details are missed by the long wave looks at long range. The mean ridge is in the East, but weakness is over coastal SE.
  5. Carvers Gap
    This is the GFS 500mb vorticity gif for the entire run.(It is the GFS at range...tread lightly). Notice the vortices rotating under the HB block. The track slowly shifts southward and forces storms to dig. AAgain, it is apparent that with so many moving pieces....it is highly likely any one solution is correct at this point. I am just pointing out that the trend is to dig a system over the SE or the SE coast. I am also attaching the 12z CMC run which shows similar tendencies. You can actually see the vortices rotating around the HB block. That is a more traditional HB look than we have seen on modeling recently.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I highly doubt modeling has this nailed down yet(oldy but goody phrase). Seems like we are seeing northern stream energy cut under the HB block. Some solutions phase east of us. Some are completely northern stream driven which drop to our west and cut under us. The big storm confluence is to our east, though the GFS does have a big system in la la land which is more of a Miller A. I will check the run-to-run differences in terms of temps. What I am interested in seeing is whether modeling is cooling off in the medium range. It looks like it just glancing, but can't be sure until I pull that map up.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Takeaway so far from the 12z suite(Euro on deck): There are systems to track, and plenty of them. Most are sitting d7+ so plenty of time to iron out details. Modeling does seem to be catching-up to the MJO phase now - very loosely. @tnweathernut, remind me how the big snow in JC occurred. I always forget. It seems like that was a marginal event as well.
  8. Carvers Gap
    CMC. Correction, around 192. That is a good look w/ HP sitting over the top.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC w/ a nice look just around 200 for the middle and western areas of the forum. The 12z GFS has a lot of looks as well including a Nor'Easter for the cities of the Northeast. Good suite so far.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And I sort of get the frustration with having a great start to winter only to see AN heights quickly supplant those cold temps. Just be glad you all don’t live in some areas of the coastal MA and Northeast. It snowed in Alabama before it snowed there. Time will tell if the winter goes full fizzle. One can make the case either way. We just don’t know in early January. Ya’ll might not want to look at my seasonal forecast from June re: February. I actually think I will possibly bust for Feb. Nina winters are often front loaded, but some really good ones came back. I think there is a decent chance this one does. However, as Jeff noted, sometimes cold sources have issues w reloading w such a severe and early cold snap. Thanks, Flash. All of you all make the site a great place. I say this often, but it is a huge deal to have our own forum - all of TN, southern KY, northern MS, northern AL, eastern Arkansas, SW VA, and also the mountain communities of western NC who participate. There is a lot of knowledge here. The microclimate discussions are exceptional. It is a great wx community.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 0z CFSv2 progression this morning which is a break from recent runs. It flips around a lot, so beware! That said, both the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 (for now!) reasonably reflect their own MJO projections. But is it right? We will find out I guess.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Now, to the matters at hand...January weather. The 6z GFS(who knows if it is right), continues to show potential for snow east of the MS and even to the EC itself. The 0z CMC and the Euro(to some extent) reflect this in the d7-10 range. They are thread-the-needle looks, but do reflect the influence of the HB block. Hey, if we are going to have a block which is bottling up the cold...maybe we can at least benefit from the suppressed tracks which are plentiful on today's runs so far.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Here are the last three winters including this one.....Not sure about your location(these maps always have discrepancies and there are definitely some areas which do better than others which smoothing covers), but many(lower elevation middle and west TN) were close to or above their seasonal norms for the two snow seasons prior to this one. North of I-40, they should be near seasonal norms in the same areas (up to this point in the season). And that snow didn't just fall around Christmas. So, I disagree in general. I am sure there are exceptions, and maybe your local was one of those. E TN, especially SE E TN, would reflect that comment more than middle and western areas.
  14. Carvers Gap
    16- run to start the game! I completely forgot about it. I got caught up watching a guy restore an old barn in Montana, and just missed it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It may and it may not. That is always one of the plausible outcomes at any point during winter. Fortunately, none of us know the future which is why we try our hand at this. We will continue to look for potential cold and storms regardless....
  16. Carvers Gap
    I thought you were gonna show me how much better that +PNA was gonna be after the -NAO. Or is that a different consensus?
  17. Carvers Gap
    And it could be that the trough sticks and holds out west. Climatology absolutely supports it - at least one cluster does anyway. However, we just saw erroneous feedback in modeling which tried to extend the recent cold spell to the horizon. I do wonder if we are seeing modeling not recognizing the MJO phase change and it is simply perpetuation the current phase. JB mentioned that this evening and Cosgrove seemed to imply it. JB, also to his credit, did find four times that MJO rotated through 8 and it stayed warm. It is rare, but not without minor precedent. We are all getting a good lesson on why the NAO(or absence of...) is important. What we see currently and on modeling is what all of December would have likely looked like w/out AN heights over Greenland. Time will tell. I have a feeling that we will see changes in LR modeling soon. D10+ forecasts can flip on a dime. That said, if we don't switch back...enjoy the nice weather. It sure beats mid 90s and 75% humidity! I definitely thought of January 1990 today as we hit the low 70s in TRI. I suspect we see winter roll back through from the last week of Jan through February. But I am not writing off Jan 5-25th either. As long as that HB block is in place, there is a thread-the-needle chance for a storm as it will suppress systems from time-to-time.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Here is what Cosgrove said: While I have emphasized the importance of model convergence on the sudden stratospheric warming event (combined with severe stretching of the circumpolar vortex), I must also stress that the interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies is a key element in getting the USA back into winter weather. There is no linkage between these two features, but as an MJO pulse builds near the International Dateline in about 240 hours, that set-up is likely to change. Contact between tropical forcing and the higher latitude flow will amplify the 500MB flow, pushing out the West Coast disturbance in favor of ridging. Which, in turn, will enhance cold air drainage from Siberia and northern Canada. Here is a link for anyone wanting to read the full comments: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7016045623946723328
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am definitely interested in the 9th-13th range. I think we possibly may see at least one storm along the eastern seaboard. Temps are marginal. That said, both the Euro, CMC, and GFS are hinting at possible storminess then. The 18z GFS does actually show an acceptable MJO progression. Let's hope we see more of that.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS/GEFS are very quick to remove the HB block after d12 or so. Looks like a reset of sorts will be underway shortly after that. Will it result in a western trough? Maybe. Will that western trough roll eastward and result in another cold shot(s)? Maybe. Indeed, the answer might be both.
  21. Carvers Gap
    As we see the strat warm, the response to the troposphere might look a lot like that east base -NAO. Good trends, albeit very far out there trends.....
  22. Carvers Gap
    I often try to do a run-to-run change to catch trends on modeling. The 12z GFS, huge grains.....has a massive -NAO developing after 300+. IF that is real, and it may not be, that is going to completely disrupt LR modeling.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z ICON has a similar look, but is more westerly. If in doubt, cutter is the default.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the 12z GFS has a trackable system next Sunday. Temps are marginal in the valley, but the track is sound. At min, that is threat for the mountains if the GFS is right - big IF!
  25. Carvers Gap
    This is from the Weeklies last evening(which I think was a a bit quick w/ eroding this pattern). However, this is a rough timeline I am following. I think we see a cool down between the 5th and 10th. Then, we see another warm-up. Then, if the MJO is correct(and the timeline below seems consistent between modeling), we start working back towards seasonal by the 20th. This seems eerily similar to the timelines of the past two cold snaps - lots of can kicking and then cold. Jeff. 2-3 more weeks after MKL day or starting from today?
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