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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Definitely. It is the model which identified this upcoming cold shot first. It has been really good as a long wave model in LR. It has scored better than the GFS at this range almost all winter as well as the Euro. The GFS does get much better inside of 5 days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And that isn't even mentioning a likely third system(maybe 4), before we lose the pattern.
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z scorecard. System one is the 22nd/23rd and system two is the 26th-ish storm. Storm 1 / Storm 2 CMC: Inland Runner Miller A...Ice NE TN / Cut...Ice NE TN GFS: Cut / Cut Euro: Apps Runner...snow upper middle TN / Coastal Miller A...big city blizzard
  4. Carvers Gap
    All areas are in play at this point w/ model tracks being all over the place. The 12z Euro has a coastal Miller A for the second storm. The GFS has a cutter into the Plains. That is a big probability cone.
  5. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z Euro has an Apps runner for the 22/23 system and a very, very suppressed look for the one on the 25th.
  6. Carvers Gap
    To have a decent shot at a big storm, we want to sit right on the boundary between cold and warm air masses at this time of year. Sometimes that is a plus and sometimes not - meaning sometimes we will be north of that line and sometimes south. But we have to be on the edge to score snow. This window of Jan22 to roughly Feb5th is actually a better window IMHO than December as the STJ is actually active. No STJ, and it can be really tough to get snow into the forum area, especially the eastern valley.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Nina climatology to a tee. We will see where it goes w/ the Euro. Right now the least accurate model has the cutters. I suspect we see at least one cut thought. That said, I think the greater risk is for suppression once modeling figures out the cold boundary. I actually feel like this is the best pattern we have seen for winter weather this winter - on paper.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has yet a third system around the 30th which is a really good look as the boundary shout be set on both the GFS and CMC at 12z..
  9. Carvers Gap
    Let's see where the Euro goes. There is a growing possibility for a weak Mller A w/ system one and WAA w/ the second system if the Candadian at noon and overnight run of the Euro are correct.
  10. Carvers Gap
    You can definitely tell the CMC is feeling the cold air mess pressing southward. The first system takes the low road as the 0z Euro did and the second system tries to cut but ends up sliding across KY and traps cold air over E TN in the valleys.
  11. Carvers Gap
    While the 12z GFS is still cutter city, it is worth noting that the 12z CMC has not one(but two) ice events for E TN north of I-40. There is wrap around snow with each system.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And I think the next couple of systems after that will also need to be watched as we head into the first week of Feb. Then we have possibly a two week warmup and more cold to end Feb and begin March. This is a similar cold/warm pattern to the past three months in terms of frequency although the setup is much different. With Nino starting to potentially flex and shortening wavelengths, there is a lot of flux in trying to find winter window during the next 6-8 weeks. Modeling is all over the place after the first week of Feb. I will say LR modeling has been decent for this current pattern shakeup.
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that the 6z GFS was quite cold for that run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 6zGFS has another system late in its run as well. So, modeling is beginning to "see" the potential for winter weather.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro have good passes for the system on the 25th/26th - Miller A. The 0z Euro actually takes the low road for the system on the 22nd/23rd. Not sure that will verify, but that system is still on the table as well.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Sum of the 46d run of the Euro Weeklies....temps seasonal to BN(BN after the 23rd) and precip AN. We take that combo and run with it if it verifies.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Man, the Euro Weeklies control -NAO...wow.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are pretty awesome.
  19. Carvers Gap
    These are the 12z d10-15 global ensemble temp anomaly maps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    By mechanism, to clarify, I mean a -EPO. Also, there are echoes of a -NAO on many runs and ensemble runs from time to time. It is on the EPS control big time. If we manage a -EPO and -NAO, that is a nice winter couplet. Honestly, that is the kind of couplet where we would be ready for spring after that matures.
  21. Carvers Gap
    There is a fine line between cutters to St Louis, and cold that strong going all the way to Cuba. Those are cold ensembles. The mechanism is there to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the pattern is honking for that kind of setup.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And that isn't the colder model in that timeframe..............
  24. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above. It is colder here prior to this snapshot. I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run. Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is really a great run. This is my favorite.
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