Carvers Gap

For those willing to do some digging, the Euro control run at 0z....that was interesting.

If you are here looking for a professional forecast, I suggest you have come to the wrong place. If you are not laying out your own ideas and just going, “I told you so,” you have definitely come to the wrong place. But if you are here to learn, to take risks, have fun , and enjoy weather...you have come to the right place. This is a place where we risk being wrong in order to get better - that is the only way to get better. The “I told you so” stuff needs to go in banter. Otherwise, we are going to have unreadable threads - go look at the MA. As for the cold, still looks highly likely as the long wave pattern which will deliver it looks reasonably locked in. The question is which storm brings it? At 18z, the GFS cut the storm on the 10th too far to the West. It jumped on the next system. IMO, this is just a matter of “when” and not “if.” You won’t hear me say that often. The December cold had the same issue. And that can all change as we don’t control any aspect of the weather. We can only predict. Shoulder seasons are easily the most difficult times for modeling. I won’t be posting a ton today as Saturday has its own responsibilities for me. So, don’t mistake my absence for a change in tune.

The wind 100% met MRX forecasts in western Sullivan County. The worst of the wind came after the storms.

TRI has recorded a gust of 49mph there. We have easily hit that here. I wouldn't be surprised if we aren't sustained at 35-40mph.

Remind me what happened during that March?

Sounds like a freight train driving by outside. Wind is howling.

Assuming that person is ok, that power line likely saved their life. Unbelievable to see it holding up that tree.

Van Gough had a time when he painted only in blue. In honor of @tnweathernut, I call this "Spring Before Winter."

I want to open what is behind door #25. Door #3 is my backup.

The above probably encompasses two storm windows March 1-13 and after March 15th. Decent signal for the SE.

12z GEFS ensembles.

A second tornado warning has been posted w the same cell as above. This one tracks just south of the TN/AL line.

Just released on FB....source MRX.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 TNC051-031830- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230303T1830Z/ Franklin TN- 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY... At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Huntland, or 10 miles southwest of Winchester, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Cowan around 1215 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beans Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3500 8625 3506 8626 3523 8598 3499 8595 TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 52KT 3505 8618 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Tornado warning posted for NE Alabama and SE middle TN .... west of Chatt.

This March has a lot of elements for a really crazy month - meaning extreme pockets of cold and warm air masses. When those clash...

MRX is banging the drum on social media. They want everyone to be award of the impending line of storms. TRI folks, looks like 5:00-7:00ish.

Thunder in the mountains today?....If we can simply say that modeling is going to be all over the place and ignore details, we might be able to find some storm tracks. The Euro takes the system around the 10th and cuts through middl TN. No surprise given the seasonal tracks. It has wrap around snow and is cold. Cold is pretty much on the table as a very highly likely scenario. Here are the last two GFS operational runs. I have no idea which we will see, but that is a pretty interesting couple of model runs for middle to late March. In Strava, they have local legends for running segments. @Holston_River_Rambleris in the running for the local legend if we get snow during March.

Yeah, overnight runs across modeling continued the trend of a very active STJ and HL blocking. If this was January, those storms might get sent to Cuba. Because of it being March, we will have a tough time keeping them South of us....but for now, that is what modeling is depicting in general.

Things that make you go hmmmm. Look closely at the dates. Hot off the press. I am tired of tracking stuff in the d10-15 range. Let's real this in folks. Just 400 more runs of the operational before we hit pay dirt. Remember w/ El Nino patterns: Jan/Feb are the months...and sometimes only Feb. Usually a delayed start to winter, everybody gets frustrated, and then winter hits. With this run...December was warm. Jan - cool. Feb - cold. On this run, Kingsport got 75" of snow. TYS only got 5" for the season.

The 18z GFS looks like the middle of winter....FWIW.

The 18z GFS is loaded.....

The interior NE could possible rival what the West has just experienced.

Sure. Here is the mean. This is probably more realistic. And I am pretty sure the 12z run was colder...these Weeklies were derived from 0z. Crazy map for 30d.