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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Feels like May outside......
  2. Carvers Gap
    I'll drop this in here as well.. .
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, those are significant burdens just by themselves....and all at once, that takes some strength to carry(strength which you have). If there is anything that we can do to help, please let us know. I am the worst at having the right thing to say, but just know that you have been missed.
  4. Carvers Gap
    78F in the afternoon of August 8th. Can you believe that? Is the worst of summer behind us? Might be. I can see one last push of heat to end the month and maybe begin Sept, but after that...average highs begin to drop quickly. So, even AN temps by mid-Sept are tolerable. Clock is ticking.
  5. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, paging the rambler. Anyone talked to Holston lately? Just checking on you, man.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Tornado warning to the southwest of Johnson City.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Meaning the winter MJO would be firing in regions 7, 8, and 1? Maybe less rotation into the warm phases?
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think you all might have a nice winter coming up, met. No promises of course, but the new Euro seasonals look very good for you all and much of NC.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kind of looking into September (might be time to start a fall thread as well), jury is out on September. Some modeling has the heat pushing eastward for a week or two. The Euro Weeklies control shuts down summer in about two weeks. Mixed signals. So, I would go with a blend....some heat pushes eastward but we see the current pattern hold....trough re-establishes. I tend to roll with John on this one, the worst of summer is likely behind us. I doubt TRI is done with 90s, but this is a pretty established pattern now -> warm pushes eastward...trough kicks it out after 7-10 days. Definitely much more precip IMBY during the past couple of weeks. I am not a huge fan of MCS complexes though - damage city.
  10. Carvers Gap
    E TN would have slightly AN precip. Middle and West TN show BN precip as the winter progresses. Very typical Nino look.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up. Trough east of Hawaii. Ridge out West. AN heights over Greenland. That equals EC storm track. Cold air supply TBD at a later date. I am sure there are flaws in this pattern below, but that is a very textbook winter wx pattern for E TN. Probably would have to go back to mid 2010s to find a pattern that showed up like this. Mountain West would see a decent start to winter followed by AN temps for Jan and Feb and BN precip - these types of setups could portend a very dry summer out there next year. The Sierra Nevada in California could see another great winter. I almost think they had such a great winter this winter is that they benefited from the Nino transitioning early for their region.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Probably time to fire-up the winter discussion thread(the pre-thread anyway). Who has the mojo? The new Euro Seasonals look really good, and follows a typical Nino 500 heights progression for DJF.
  13. Carvers Gap
    LR forecast in the 3-5 week range have backed-off the warm-up some. Dare I say they look like fall?
  14. Carvers Gap
    The new CANSIPS shows(unfortunately) endless summer through September at least with summer backing off by October. DJF, just eyeballing, looks below normal for temps. Typical Nino progression on the CANSIPs re: winter. The August to early Sept heatwave is typical for Nino years. Let’s hope the model is missing the sharp switch to fall which should occur mid-late Sept....and smoothing likely may not allow for that type of specificity.
  15. Carvers Gap
    My neighbor has a tree through the side of his house. My parents are without power until Tuesday.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Some really bad storms in Kingsport tonight. Just checking w/ the TRI crew after that MCS moved through. Lots of trees down and many, many without power.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Some hints at an early start to winter in the Mountain West...or at least a very cold fall. Lots of variability on September modeling. The great thing about September is that average highs begin to drop quickly. I still think we see a sharp switch to fall by mid-late September. I could easily be wrong. I like looking at the MW region as it can sometimes give a hint to that first truly chill fall air mass. When the cold builds in MT, it will often slide this way(modified of course).
  18. Carvers Gap
    I am gonna start heading to the Plateau for the summer! LOL. Looks like the earlier (cooler) wx pattern from earlier this summer is about to return after a scorching hot week in NE TN. I am just glad that we are counting these hot days in terms of days and not weeks!
  19. Carvers Gap
    I think Kingsport might be one of the hottest place in E TN today. We have to be catching some downslope somewhere. Temps in town are ranging from 90-95F on wxunderground. Real feel right now at my place is 97F. Easily the hottest day of the summer here w/ worse to come later this week. On a positive note, we got a popcorn storm that parked right over western Sullivan/eastern Hawkins yesterday. Amounts ranged from 0.75-1.30" of much needed rainfall. We prob got about an inch of rain IMBY. Two blocks away - zip. That kind of rain storm. I was no fan of the marble size hail. Holston will know this....not sure it even rained at the bridge into our hood.
  20. Carvers Gap
    John, you have been living large this summer. TRI hasn't been too bad either... Mid 90s at TRi for much of the rest of the week according to point-and-click. We have hit 90(and only 90) 6x so far this month. This "should" be the worst week of summer, but LR modeling at the end of August is showing some potential for heat spreading eastward from the Plains. That is not unexpected. My guess is that we see a sharp cold front at some point during the last third of September which just ends summer on the spot. That is not exactly "going out on a limb" as that is seasonal climatology. But after multiple Nina summers lasting well into October, that would be a welcome change.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Ocean temps(lakes as well) can fickle fickle fickle. Wind could have turned the ocean over and created upwelling of colder water. It could just be an oddity within ocean currents. Fishermen will often look for the seam where colder water meets warmer water...even if that seam is a vertical one and not striated horizontally. Water temps are DEFINITELY cool in that area. Interesting share. 81F water is not warm in the summer given how shallow the water is there. https://coastalwatertemperatureguide-noaa.hub.arcgis.com
  22. Carvers Gap
    I came here debating whether to post this. Ha! Ha! Glad you posted it, Jax.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Interesting updates from NOAA today re: winter. Man, if I didn't know better, I would think they are banking on a front loaded winter which is exactly opposite of my own thinking. Interesting. Precip AN for each. Please be award these will change w/ each month, so I will try to delete the post later next month. Here is the link:
  24. Carvers Gap
    I taught his brother. Great family. Awesome song.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Easily the hottest day IMBY. Not sure if we are catching downsloping or what....but it is a furnace out there right now with the wind blowing at 90F. Feels like a hair dryer. Yard is fried. Looking forward to the rain during the next few days. We need it. Thankful for the few days of this that we have had all season.
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