Carvers Gap

I had been hearing about some of the heavy snows to hit Japan during the past few days. Here is a YouTube video of some of that snow. It was just posted two days, so I assume it is recent. Pretty amazing amounts.

I thought wx models did well at range w/ yesterday's NW flow potential. They kind of hiccuped within 72 hours, but eventually reality would match those prolonged upslope runs from a week ago.

Nice way to cap the season here. We had light snow falling for almost 24 hours. The snow didn't accumulate much as John noted. Last evening about 8:30, it did pick up and coat everything w/ 0.25-0.4" of powder. Schools were on delay or closed today in much of NE TN. I suspect we get 1-2 more cold shots, but for now....the rain/snow line looks like it is over the Ohio River Valley. But this is the time of year where wx models can change wildly at times. Anything is possible.

Nice little dusting IMBY which occurred over the past couple of hours. Chalk up a "trace" at my house.

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.

I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March. As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy. I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10. I don't think that entire time frame will be cold. I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there. If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN. The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th. I do think we may well track one last storm. For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention. I don't do severe.

18z GFS still has some snow for the Plateau, NE TN region, and Apps. It is more aggressive than other models. I don't trust it at this point. So, instead of a thread that is flatlined....just talking Mammoth.

This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both.

The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.

12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.

Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.

The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.