Carvers Gap

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove. This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

Definitely don't want to lose power with a potential Arctic front barreling down the Plains a few days later. I am sure the NWS will give this about 48 hours for modeling to get this into focus...and then put out the word. Still a lot of uncertainty right now.

I think initially, we want it suppressed at this range. The cold which pushes after this could be strong. I want to get this within about four days. I could still see this really surging warmth into the TN Valley if something cuts. I can definitely see a scenario where something cuts, draws cold down, and the second wave is snow/ice. But the slider scenario is plausible. For whatever reason, modeling this winter has found a way to be universally wrong from suite to suite. So, I expect a jog north...well north of the GFS as nearly all of the GEFS members are north of the deterministic. But the 12z GFS deterministic is almost to a range it can be trusted, but not quite yet. Fun discussion, but those tracks are gonna move some at this range for sure. I don't want ice either. Ensemble packages look good though at 12z.

My only caveat would be that modeling has struggled this winter. Right now though, this is at day 4-5 for far western areas of this forum. By tomorrow evening or Tuesday morning, short range models should begin to have this for portions of Arkansas.

If this actually occurs, the EURO AIFS and its ensembles had this days before other modeling did......

The 12z EPS has temps thirty degrees BN (over TRI and E TN...cold over the entire forum area and EC) from ten days out which is almost unheard of from that model. Again, I have my doubts, but just reporting what I see. The winter which shall not be named as an analog....is trying to sneak into the photo.

The 12z Euro ensemble individuals show strong support for the deterministic run.

It is again worth noting that wx models have done a much better job of identifying cold fronts during the last few weeks, but they have been over-doing cold almost across the board.

Just grabbing some maps. The temps are also a big story. Modeling is still picking up a sharp cold shot right around 300 which is after the rain/snow/ice/sleet we are looking at. Some of the seven day temp departures, undoubtedly enhanced by potential snow cover, are impressive. I also added the accumulation maps for the Euro run.

Yeah, man. We want none of that. The cold air looks vey likely. The wild card is whether the STJ gets its act together. We have seen "false positives" this winter with it. Like I said above though, this event is within five days for folks in Arkansas...and almost four.

The concern, and we have talked about this for at least a week...is that this potential cold air mass will form a gradient boundary which presses west to east. The cold air will submarine under warm air, and that creates the conditions needed for ice. We dodged one window this past week as the STJ didn't attack the base of the trough. The STJ looks to show some life right now at the worst possible time - and you all know I like winter, but not ice. Again, a lot will change and that should be noted in all caps. But it sure looks increasingly likely that somewhere between Birmingham and Lexington is gonna see a winter storm and maybe a bad one.

The 12z GEFS has at the first round of light mix into west TN by early Friday....and waves of rain, sleet, snow, and ice persist until the following Sunday - like ten days of waves along the gradient. No idea if it is right. I am just the messenger on this.

The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering. I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero. Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend. Things are going to change with this almost assuredly. Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now. Also, the frames below are only snapshots. The GEM frame is the second wave. Most models had a couple of waves.

Honestly, the cold following that type of event on the 12z Euro would be rough, rough.

The 12z Euro is going for a glacier in North Carolina. I have seen this before in the early 2000-2010. Monster run.