Carvers Gap

Man, the GEFS ensemble and deterministic after d8 are waaaaay out there on an island. The 18z GEFS going the deterministic run. The 18z GEFS ensemble has no support from any other ensemble run. The 18z AIGFS(which JB hates) is truly an awesome pattern by the end of its run. edit: Some halfway support from the 18z AIFS Euro. But the AIFS Euro looks pretty good. I think the cold will be centered back a bit further west than early December which is probably not a bad thing.

I also think the 8th is starting to be a trackable window. No guarantees, but it is showing up across modeling and at 500 on ensembles. With the NAO block likely in place, it is certainly a realistic option.

Kind of a minor event possible on NYD from the Plateau into SE KY, SW VA, and border areas of NE TN. Maybe we can cook something up per the 18z RGEM. I don't think anything more than a dusting or snow showers, but we have seen these trend south at the very last minute - as in the radar is the only thing that verified this far south.

The 18z GFS definitely trying to get in on the action. It has a storm which cuts into the forum area, but still manages to stay south. The good thing? It is the GFS at 10 days. The great thing? Good storm track.

I think the dry conditions(outright drought) in some areas of the forum is worth a continuing discussion. The southern edge of our forum is really dry as is west Tenn/eastern Arkansas. The southern Apps, as is typical w/ La Nina, are BN for rainfall. MBY is normal which has not been a usual occurrence of late. Thankfully, I think as we trend towards El Nino this summer....we will see a normal summer for temps, rain, and a reduced risk for endless summer next fall. If El Nino takes hold early enough, we could see cooler than normal temps later in spring.

That is a really good run of the Euro Weeklies(which are now dailies!). Ridge out west w/ it bridging across to Greenland. This is generally supported by some of the colder analogs. This pretty much holds throughout the run. Now, I have been doing this for a while....it likely won't hold for 6 weeks. The weeklies kind of just roll with week one and don't really move from that pattern sometimes. As @John1122notes, that storm track is a good one if it verifies. A word of caution: There has been no more fickle beast in wx modeling than LR modeling this winter. I wouldn't develop a long term attachment!!! I have 2x30day chunks at 500 posted. I mainly have done that, because each kind of tells a different story - both good for winter in the Tennessee Valley. I add two control images - you know I like the control. The temps map I think is a little bit less washed out, and it gets cold on that control run! The snow map is very similar to the ensemble, and that is likely a good sign. It is basically snow climatology, but I will take average vs none. But it gives us a good idea of the storm tracks possible - sliders, cutters, and inland runners. And if you need something to be concerned about if you like snow...I have that for you as well. Now, the good thing is that BN precip prob means it has been cold. I definitely am in the school of thought that we do a lot better when cold is in place. So, there is good and bad with this map. I don't have to explain the bad.

I use photobucket. @John1122mentioned a service he uses as well. I use photo bucket. I just upload the photo, and then grab a hosting link for it. Some hosting sites are free and some are maybe five bucks a month.

Also, ensembles are starting to honk that an Alaskan block is setting up. Now that....that would deliver cold.

The 12z AIFS Euro has three storms back-to-back-to-back. Easily the best suite of the year in terms of just synoptical setup.

5 day mean for the deterministic 12z Euro...~d6-11.

It is quiet in here to have such a good 12z suite. The 12z Euro looked loaded. Very nice run with plenty of chances and actual snow embedded in the run.

Winch chills here in Bristol are in the teens. Flurries are in the air. What a reversal in temps.

The 12z CMC has the EPO in place by Jan 6 with a nice pattern in place by the 8th - eastern trough.

I thought the 12z GFS was close with two storms on Jan 7 and Jan 11. Sure enough, the 12z CMC which doesn’t have a progressive bias…brought it. Good look. Big storm.

Really good example of a NA ridge retrograding at mid latitude w/ the HL ridge also doing the same. If that is stable, that is game on and very tough to break down. If it traps a piece of the TPV, even better for winter weather. Bottom up strat splits....do they affect the troposphere immediately? Good overall trends continuing on modeling overnight.