Carvers Gap

Snow fell in Mammoth Lakes today. That is even early by their standards.

OTH, you get to experience the heartbreaks of winter again with us. I am thankful for that(to have you back! to clarify!) Haha!!!!

I kind of suspected this might not be temporary. LR ensembles are showing the ridge parking itself out West.

For future reference when we come back to this historic warm period, the feature which broke its back is a Nor'easter.

The 6z GFS is looking like it may bring the first frosts to higher elevations in the longer range - d10-15

Welcome heat relief has arrived!!!!

Big changes still on tap for next week. Most modeling and ensembles support that continuing for at least a couple of weeks.

Guidance today is moving to the quicker transition and breakdown of the heat ridge. Ensembles and deterministic models generally have a pretty big change coming. Even the Apple app has me in the 70s next week for highs. The real feels will be almost 25 degrees cooler than this week’s

Jeff, I am gonna need you to calculate the area under each of those curves so that we can better analyze the true capacity of oceanic heat. Energy potential is to be calculated in gigawatts. I got to know if this can power my Delorean back to cooler temps.

That is insane.

It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.

Jax, you beat me to it. The 12z EPS is depicting a strong EPO/PNA ridge hybrid. That "should" could things off drastically here. Is it temporary? IDK. But we are on schedule for a pattern change right about then. That would open the door for frosts in the valleys and possibly the first flakes above 4k'. Very rough time estimate is Sept 15-17th for the flip. It could be delayed to ~Sept 20th. This could feel sharply different after what we have seen lately.

Looks similar to the CANSIPS IMHO.

Even TRI has been scorching hot. Our real feels have only been 3-4 degrees cooler than you all at times. Boiling hot. Jeff, let's hope the Weeklies today were dealing with feedback. Super torch and prolonged.

Yeah, it has been a furnace. I don't remember September being hot during Nino climatology. I do remember Octobers being cold. We need some cool air. These fall athletes are living in heat purgatory right now. They need a break! Reminds me of La Nina falls. Maybe the atmosphere is just repeating the pattern regardless of ENSO? Warm fall - endless summer. Flip to winter temps, 2-4 week lull, more winter, and short spring? At some point, fall "should" be cloudy and cool if Nino has anything to say about it - minus the flip.