Carvers Gap

Pretty chilly 12z suite incoming so far. Triptofan shut me down last night…so I missed the torch! LOL

The 12z Euro trended south and eastward. Overall, was a nice run as was its ensemble.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!! The 12z CMC looks close to something good late in the run.

The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

We all are guilty of HOT takes. I will be more than happy for this to happen every time I predict warm weather to occur. I have had some good ones, but this might be a winner from last Friday. The pivot away from BN heights over Tenn Valley has voluminous support both in width and depth in the model world. From ensembles to Weeklies....the trend is towards a standing wave SER over the SE. It can be beaten down, but it immediately returns. Maybe I should have clarified. A standing ridge over...Cuba. ->

Ah, and one last ironic thing which I am noticing(and mentioned yesterday)....I think there is the danger of suppressed systems due to the strength of these air masses. But the souther stream looks active regardless. If we can get 1-2 systems to connect with the cold, we would be in business.

The biggest things I am noticing at 12z are the potential for slp to form as cold front drags its feet across the souther Gulf states. I am also seen very cold air masses that seem to have little difficulty making it to our latitude. The cold air supply in Canada appears ample.

The 12z Euro is definitely in the CMC camp w/ a flatter wave.

Surprised we haven't had more discussion. The 12z GFS and CMC look great in the medium and long range - several good windows. The CMC actually looks good for E TN. Good 12z run so far. Euro is inbound currently.

This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting....

Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well?

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to have something similar. The 0z CMC wasn't bad either.

Overnight modeling definitely interesting.

@nrgjeff, basketball season is here! Vols get a big one against Houston. I like how they played down the stretch in that game. How are the Jayhawks this year?

It is pretty wild to see the 12z Euro as it does not get stuck loading endless troughs into the Southwest. It looks reasonable.