Carvers Gap

Just looking at the short range models...there looks like some light snow showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. With these temps...very little precip can go a long way.

That....was an east trending run for sure. I am kind of with @tnweathernut on this one...just looks like a storm which will hit eastern NC right to the coast. I do think we see some light snow or snow showers w/ the energy that dives into it.

Ensembles ticked east…deterministic models did not at 12z. 12z models were generally west or the same with slp placement including Google(?). The precip shield was less - reference previous page. Do I think it will trend eastward?….ensembles say yes and I tend to agree. Deterministic runs at 12z and individual ensemble members were generally best of mslp.

If AI asked the Euro Weeklies(today) how long until spring arrives. It's answer would have been, "Long time."

That map is accurate for MBY. An inch of snow prior to the ice, and about 0.5" of snow last night. The roads were TREACHEROUS this morning in Kingsport. Solid sheet of ice w/ snow on top. Wind chills were around 6F when I got up. They have hovered there all day w/ the current gusts.

The 12z GEPS is further back w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 12z. The 12z Euro is further east w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 6z. That seems to be a pretty significant difference. The amount of hp over the top in New England is also important. The 12z Euro had more there than compared to 6z...and that may well have shunted the moisture to the coast.

The following evolution looks reasonable to be. Both the 12z GEPS-par and 12z Euro are very similar. The Euro was missing some juice. The 12z GFS, Euro, and GEPS-para are slightly west of their previous positions with the slp. Below is a 12z comparison (not comparing to 6z runs) of the GEPS-para and Euro. Left is GEFS-para and right is Euro. Generally, that is pretty good agreement for low placement. Per the GEPS-para, I tend to think the northern stream system will be stronger over the eastern Tenn Valley than the Euro has. The Euro tends to be a little biased towards drier systems. The GEPS-para was the first to nail mixing issues over NE TN with this last system. Can it trend west to northwest? Sure, but that is a tighter window with each passing run. Hour 114 Hour 128

I think when we see partial phases...they just don't get worked out really well until inside of 3-4 days. I do think this looks more like a Carolina special. My investment level is low, but think light snow is possible with this for NE TN and SW VA. I am not even sure the northern stream energy is even being modeled correctly. Preferably, we would like that negative tilt maybe 150 miles further west in Georgia. But that phase is so finesse...just tough to know. I would feel good if I lived in the Piedmont, and keep an eye on it if in NE TN. NE TN may well score w/ the northern stream energy before it phases, catch a little bit of backing, and see some light snow as a result. But as we have seen this winter...these things do change quickly from time to time. Of note, there are a lot of small pieces of energy directly behind this. JB noted last night, and I tend to agree, this looks like a lot of lighter events until after Feb 10, and then the STJ fires again w/ cold in place.

The 12z Euro slp is further west w/ a negative tilt trough. For whatever reason, the surface doesn't respond as strongly. They synoptics are better w/ 12z. I don't think that means much for the western 2/3 of the forum area. This is probably something the eastern 1/3 of the valley maybe has a 30-40% chance of sneaking into the game - if that. 12z left. 6z right.

It might be a whiff on the surface...it is not a whiff on the vort maps. Looks similar to 6z.

Negative tilt vort over South Carolina at 141.

12z Euro might be interesting per 500 vort maps.

And the CMC synoptics make a lot of sense w/ the cold air diving into energy in the STJ. Big cold fronts can go boom at this time of year.

12z CMC is a classic EC blizzard.

I may have to break down and look at Google AI. FTR, it is freaking cold outside. Roads here this morning were a solid sheet of ice w/ about a 1/2" of new snow overnight. You could barely stand up on some streets - yes, I went running in this mess(if you can call it running when on ice). Snow flurries are rolling through currently. We put covers on outdoors spigots yesterday evening. I think this type of light snow shower activity may continue on and off throughout the cold snap....14-15' type of stuff but lighter.