Carvers Gap

The bad thing about the CMC is it follows that ice w/ near record cold.

19 degrees colder in Chattanooga at 132 compared to 6z for the AIGFS and 15 degrees colder at TRI.

Oh dang. The 12z AIGFS did correct southward by quite a bit.

The snow map or the 12z CMC is very similar to the 6z AIFS. We had better hope the ice map trends that way as well! If the AIFS holds at 12z, I would say that is a somewhat of a cave by the Canadian model. One more run, and that slp likely cuts w/ that trend.

What we are seeing on the CMC is severe cold crashing into and undercutting an over-running event which doesn't get out of the way.

On the 12z CMC, we see a slight weakening of the hp to the NW of the storm by 3-4mbs. Maybe that is a trend towards the AIFS???

Haha. Same. I just don't even bother to strike it out anymore. I just assume folks see the error in my ways and politely move along!!!

This thought crossed my mind as I looked at the CMC this morning at 0z. That looks like an anafront hybrid(w/ over-running). This run wasn't necessarily more amped....it was surprisingly flatter.

Upwards of 3" of ZR in E TN on that CMC run per pivotalwx.

12z GEM definitely not suppressed. Big winter storm on that map at 126 on Pivotal - usually earlier than wxbell and I often forget that!

Don't want' to be bullseye w/ an over-running system at this range. Need some modeling south of us in my experience.

Of note the 12z ICON is a bit north of its 6z run but no significant change in its hp(mid 1040s). The 12z GEM and GFS are not budging w/ that hp.

Just watching the GEM roll. At 72 hours, its Yukon high is smidge stronger at 1050 when compared to 0z. I noticed the same minor change in increasing expansiveness of that hp early in the ongoing GFS run. At 81, the hp is at 1053. I have to think another suppressed solution is incoming. I don't know for sure, but I would guess that.

Chattanooga w/ 7" of snow on that run.

Man, that is a LONG fetch of frozen precip on the 12z GFS. At 129, snow stretches from southwest New Mexico to Wilmington, NC. Ice sits directly south of that line. Textbook over-running setup.