Carvers Gap

Update.....

The 12z Canadian has similar set up in terms of cold. I would not be surprised to see an anafront system develop if the cold is that strong. The AIFS is 3-4 days later. Modeling is picking up on a strong cold front...timing TBD. The Tenn-Vandy game would be pretty frigid if the 12z GFS/CMC were to be correct.

The 6z Euro AIFS has some company.

Well, well, well...look what the 12z GFS just drug in.

6z Euro AIFS FTW....been wanting to post that all morning. Cloudfare had other plans. Thankfully, systems are slowly coming back online.

D8-14 analogs from CPC today. Really pulling for the Dec 09 thread to be THE analog. 19851121 19561203 19851116 19721207 19641123 20051202 19961113 20081214 20091207 19801203

I recommend unpinning this thread and pinning John's December thread. All deterministic threads(as John notes) have December within their sites.

Thanks, man. Good points as well.

The Weeklies do mirror what @John1122shared earlier in the winter or fall thread(from Grit).

The can kicking has paused...and the control and ensemble are now singing the same song as noted above. They have recently been on opposite sides of things with the control winning the battle! I say that, because we kind of hope the control might be right today. Here the 32 day control run - temps are accentuated BN by heavy snow which falls after the 20th. In general, temps are 10-15 BN regardless of snow cover. This would rival any December cold outbreak. The second is the 7 day ensemble mean which is centered on Christmas. The 500 pattern is nice, especially after the first week of December. LONG way out there, but fun to look at... For those of you who are new OR are visiting from other forums, we often put maps to brainstorm/discuss, admire, or just for future reference. They are NOT forecasts at this range. I prob should have placed this in the winter thread! But.....I already have this ready to go, so will leave it here. If a mod wants to switch it to winter, no problem. Anyway, for new folks (or visitors) we kick a lot of stuff around in this forum. We are often not afraid to be wrong which I think is what makes this a great place. You can take a risk. Another great thing about this subforum is that we have no incentive to drive numbers with posts that you will see on social media which are designed to get clicks. If you see us post a map, we are just adding to the conversation. Never be afraid to ask a question. Unless the poster has a red tag(an actual meteorologist! thank you to those folks!), the rest of us do this as a hobby. Now, we do have a couple of folks here who have chosen not to get a red tag who are also mets. You will figure out who they are pretty quickly. I am definitely not one of those folks - just a fun hobby.

It looks like we "might" (famous last words) have some consolidation w/ the Euro Weeklies. It looks like the cold is delayed, but now holding for the last three weeks of December. Christmas(for now!!!) looks very cold on both the ensemble and control. It has been a while since the ensemble and the control have been singing the same song.

All I can say is this...if you don't see me commenting about the LR pattern, there is a reason for that. LOL. The trend has not been our friend over the weekend. But it is the LR, and things can(and likely will) change again. I still think we go cold, but I don't have a lot of model support nor a lot of confidence in that. Cosgrove has to be feeling good about now - he made a good forecast. No idea if it is right, but it is well supported, and he made that when modeling said otherwise. If forced to make a call for December(and this could change), I would say: Week 1: AN to normal Week 2: transition to normal or cold Week 3: BN Week 4: choose your own adventure book

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events. And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well. By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference! The wind was howling. I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard. I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future. LOL.

I like Grit's posts. Good share. I tend to think we see a warmup in there, but recent LR ext modeling trends definitely support Grit. Interestingly, the analogs we looked at the other day maybe(off the top of my head without looking) seemed to support a mid to late cold outbreak.