jm1220

Coating here on old snow/cold surfaces. Pavements wet. Light snow.

Looks like a nice burst in the N Shore. I‘m in Long Beach for this event. Alternating between light snow and flurries.

Some sticking on colder surfaces.

Finally light snow here. No accumulation yet besides whitening some of the old snow.

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga.

As you can tell I’m not optimistic about this at all. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Pixie dust flakes in Long Beach.

You can see the radar echoes drying up over LI from the confluence. Maybe a wave or two can reach the south shore but I doubt much happens here beyond the flurries we have now honestly because it will keep getting eaten up until the inverted trough develops and shifts the snow south. Maybe the south shore can get lucky with a coating to inch.

They'll likely back down north of I-195 with the overnight update.

Seen this show before, I remember a couple of these in 18-19 that dried up as soon as the snow got to Trenton and DC/Baltimore got warning snow. This looks to be another of those. Might not be much of anything here given the trends. The snow will head northeast until it hits the confluence brick wall. Just can't catch a break.

Might end up another DC to Baltimore storm.

Looks if anything like snow is trending south even more. North of Sandy Hook be happy if it’s more than 1”. Just isn’t able to do it against the confluence. Of course we finally have a south trend/ more confluence leading into an event.

My “time to be concerned if we don’t see a turnaround” window is around now and not encouraging to see these signs of the Pacific going on another rampage. If snow is out of the question I’m fine with it warming into the 40s-50s again. Screw these cold periods with nothing to show for it. If it’ll be another total fail “winter” the worst is useless cold.

Time to take it behind the horse barn.

NAM looks lousy/south.

Also keep in mind as Don said ratios may be above 10-1, so 0.2 of precip may be 2.5” snow.

It’s disappointing but we have snow on the ground and will get more tomorrow to freshen it up. Hopefully the NWS is right in it being more aggressive.

RGEM looks like dung but the WRF models look pretty amped/wet.

I drove through my neighborhood last night and the ice was definitely noticeable in the trees. Very wintry scene. Not to the point branches were drooping but much more and there could’ve been power issues. I’m near Jericho Turnpike so the sound doesn’t affect my area. Down to 17 here, may get down to the low teens.

Good trend, let’s see if other models pick up on it. Hopefully we’re at the range where NAM can’t be totally trashed.

NW of the city was a bust on the modeling like you said. They almost all showed the heaviest snow up there but they were skunked.

I’ll be in Long Beach for this one. For once that might be a good thing.

They also had 7” of snow I think in the last storm. Deep deep winter in that area.

There was definitely a nice glaze on trees here but I wouldn’t say we were near 0.25” which is warning criteria ice. I would say 0.1” or so actually accreted. When temps are just below freezing a good amount of the rain just runs off. When temps get down to 28-29 it becomes a lot more dangerous when there’s steady rain.

Maybe today we’ll see the bump north we usually get with these systems. Let’s see what the other models have to say. If we get a little less confluence and slightly better S/W it can happen. Won’t be a major event but a 3-5” type outcome isn’t off the table.