jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Thanks and good luck on your search. For MBY I’d say 17-18 was the best of the bunch, close with 10-11 which was an awesome NYC winter but generally serviceable other than 22-23 which was obviously a disaster. That blend would be maybe 25-30” for the winter here, slightly below average but would gladly take at this point. Hope we get the poleward Aleutian ridging which can force the downstream cold/PV further south. Whatever can disrupt the Pacific jet is more than welcome.
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I think it’s too early to say if the storm will be weakening as it comes onshore. As we’ve seen the dry air/shear impacts are hard to predict. We’ve seen them disrupt the hurricanes more than expected but it’s the same the other way around especially since on its way in it’ll be moving over jet fuel SSTs. People might be hearing “it’s supposed to weaken” and deciding to stay which would be a BIG mistake.
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Don’t want to drag this off topic but the construction type also only really helps with wind. A massive surge will damage any type of property overcome from the water. The only way in the future any of these properties might be insured is if they’re on stilts.
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Eye looks to really be clearing out. I’d think it’s pretty likely it makes it to Cat 5 again.
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Pityflakes speaks for everyone including the hurricane experts?
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Longboat Key would be really bad for Sarasota, maybe as far south as Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda with surge.
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Just about anywhere north of Marco Island is very heavily developed and in really bad places for surge. Bradenton/Sarasota by itself is over 100K people.
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I see posts mentioning the presentation is getting better again and it’s borderline Cat 5.
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Who’s “everyone” saying “weakening badly” and who’s definitely saying it makes landfall S of Tampa, an area still populated with hundreds of thousands of people?
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The surge doesn’t diminish as fast as the winds do. See LA/MS from Katrina. It kept its huge surge even though it degraded significantly into a halfacane.
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You have to also remove the debris in 24 hours from Helene so it doesn’t become missiles as well as batten down for this one. Can’t even imagine all that has to go into getting ready.
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If Milton ends up hitting the same places Ian did, wonder how many will decide to just leave instead of rebuild again. Some of those towns got flooded in Helene too. I’d imagine it would be impossible to get any hurricane/flood insurance. And without massive sea walls I have no idea what you do about surge flooding especially with rising sea levels and people developing the most surge prone land.
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Yep, it would still be hundreds of thousands of people facing devastating impacts from a south of Tampa landfall. And those people live right in the worst surge prone areas on barrier islands or on bays. The only real “good” outcome would be a huge N or S trend taking it away from those populated areas which isn’t likely.
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The wave setup well ahead of the eye also factors in. I remember the water levels being very high well ahead of Sandy even though winds were offshore right until they suddenly shifted onshore as it hit NJ. Obviously this one’s size won’t be as big but I’m sure water will start pushing in well ahead of the main impacts.
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Possibly down to 40 here late week, not quite cold enough for frost but close. Can’t totally rule it out. The pine barrens likely get there.
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Maybe 0.1” this AM.
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Looking like this is a delayed not denied season that goes boom when the overall environmental conditions are ripe.
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No question they’re in huge trouble if these tracks into Clearwater pan out. Even with the storm weakening some or even significantly the flooding will be horrendous. The surge doesn’t decrease as fast as the winds can and it’s also partly due to the storm’s overall size which will be expanding. Hopefully people are getting out of anyplace near sea level.
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After Helene apparently sea birds were found in GA that were stuck in the eye. Happens pretty often with these stronger landfalling hurricanes where the birds can’t escape.
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Yep, I’ve seen that time and again in some of our stronger Nor’easters up here and with storms like Irene 2011 where we gusted to 70 or so and Sandy 2012 where we had frequent 85-90 mph gusts. The amount of rain also matters as it loosens the soil.
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And even if the center goes S of Tampa, as we all know from Ian it’s still very heavily populated real estate all the way to Marco Island. Would still be devastating for perhaps hundreds of thousands and many who are still rebuilding post-Ian. The east coast of FL might also be impacted pretty bad-Irma was bad for the whole peninsula even though it tracked into the Gulf and weakened significantly from peak.
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Definitely a nail biter for Tampa/St Pete, 30 mile or so difference between possibly historic surge or the bay getting pushed out again. Yikes. The weakening trend would help but if it really ramps up beforehand the surge impact would be largely baked in like with Katrina.
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That was a really nice one (1/4/2018), too bad it couldn’t slow down. It was hauling.
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I think it’ll happen within 10 years that there’s a truly crippling historic snowstorm or series of snowstorms that happen here when we can get the pieces to finally fit together-stuck pattern, warm Atlantic SSTs and finally enough cold. By that I mean widespread 30”+, maybe 36”. NYC was 40 miles from it happening in Feb 2013, close in Jan 2015 and 2022, close in early Feb 2010 etc. It did happen in Mar 1888 and and to a lesser extent 2/26/2010 with the retrograding bomb (I know a bad memory for most of New England). I would take that in a second even if the rest of winter had zilch.
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Can’t believe I’m saying it but in a way it’s good we had the August deluge (for LI) or else we’d be starting to look at a significant drought. From record El Niño wet winter to this now.
