jm1220

Hopefully if the big ACE season pans out there are lots of recurves. In a Nina it’s our one positive indicator for a snowy winter we can look forward to. But the tendency for the Bermuda high ridge to spike further north the last 5 summers or so might also mean storms are headed N at our latitude not NE which is a big danger if we have hurricanes near the Carolina coast.

Bayville and Eatons Neck both had 68mph gusts. They’re windy spots in any easterly wind events but no doubt the HWW verified. Also looks like numerous large branches/some trees down around the island. Rain generally 2.5-3”.

Will cloud back up and more showers with the upper low swinging through.

Usual places like Lindenhurst and Freeport flooded during high tide. Beaches took a pounding again looks like.

I think it’s time to pull the plug and call time of death on any chance of NYC making it to 10” snow this winter

In Melville this afternoon the flags/branches were being blown around pretty good and rain in sideways sheets. Definitely a tropical storm vibe.

JFK gusted to 54mph so far, I think HWW criteria is 55+. I’m sure a number of areas met it so far. Not to the point there’s widespread damage but the “nasty meter” today definitely off the charts.

5th or 6th time in the last few months my backyard became a pond.

The secondary low forming means lots more rain for us.

Pouring and windy in Melville.

It took basic pattern recognition to realize that this was never a storm in terms of snow for us, and would be dicey in SNE but a fairly small shift would’ve kept it interesting along I-90. There’s as usual no preexisting cold to speak of, it’s another storm packed with moisture and the SE ridge is trying to make it cut as much as it can. Even if there’s a NAO block, we’re in trouble with the mega SE ridge. And oh by the way, it’s April.

If it’s getting to the point now where SE ridges will regularly link up with the -NAO which negates the benefit of blocking episodes, we’re in big trouble and probably SNE too. Not sure if there have been historical periods where this happened.

Looking pretty likely Boston ends under 10” for the winter which is absolute basement level disaster. Even I had 15.5” this season. If you take the last 4 winters from 20-21 on it’s been about as good here on the LI N Shore as it’s been there-and of course the last 2 winters have been complete trash. 21-22 was better there but 20-21 better here. Looking quite dicey on the coastal flood threat tomorrow AM, major flood predicted in Freeport and moderate to major almost everywhere else on the S Shore bays. That plus maybe 2” more rain will means lots more flooding everywhere. Power might be out/trees down as well if these 60 mph gusts happen on saturated ground.

More worried about the coastal flood threat again. Hopefully that’s overdone too. The beaches/bays can’t take any more of it.

Sounded like some sleet pellets mixed in with this shower.

Already about 0.9” from this at JFK. I suspect a good chunk of us will get 3” total by this time tomorrow or so. Our rainforest-ation continues.

Coastal flood warnings up-mod to major flooding expected on the South Shore bays and waves up to 10 feet.

What a shame we can’t use it to track the rain/snow line in this one. It’ll be a nail biter!

Was nice to wake up to that morning, there was 6” of glue right down to the S Shore.

Don’t underestimate this extended fall with 10 days of winter’s ability to find new ways to keep us suffering.

A little surprised there’s no Flood Watch given the high water tables. Some models have 3”+ from this storm. Looks like another soaker.

I guess anything’s possible. It’s possible something sprang 1000 Loch Ness Monsters that will storm Battery Park tomorrow. That’s about as possible as seeing any snow from this storm.

It won’t in any way that will matter here. Embrace the puddles.

Take a day or two off and drive up there. Might be half decent around Hunter Mountain. Besides that nature is what it is.

Along I-90 to Boston I'd definitely keep an eye on it still. ORH area anyway away from the coast and elevated could definitely still be majorly impacted. Our wet windy misery might just be a couple degrees colder if Boston ends up getting slammed.