jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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To me UKMET looked a little better-more QPF and not amped. Best down here/along the coast but inland still gets a decent event.
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GFS is the best case scenario for 95% of us. Still amped enough for plenty of snow inland and good ratios, and cold enough for the city/coast. The 5% it’s not ideal for is well east in Suffolk but it should cool off enough pretty quick and flip over. Snow would probably start pasty in the city/east and become powder by the end.
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18z GFS looked a little hairy east of the William Floyd initially until winds turn N and really drives the cold in, and snow would probably be wet from the city east initially but I’d gladly take. It’s the best case scenario for around the city, still plenty strong/amped. And I’d think eastern Suffolk would still get a few hours of decent snow at the end. But here comes 0z anyway.
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I had my usual this winter consolation dusting that was gone within an hour of sunrise this morning.
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Yup still a disaster for anyone near/east of the city. Hoping it can eventually slip 75 miles or so SE. I wanted to see at least a small shift.
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RGEM looks maybe slightly better but definitely still favors inland. Low still tracks over I-95 which is all rain east of there. I don’t expect it to make big moves in one run, don’t think I’ve ever seen that. Icon went maybe 30-50 miles SE.
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Cooling down fast again tonight, down to 25. Wonder if we see another sneaky night in the teens in some places.
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NAM (I know) looks like a 3-6” type event for everyone. Sign the dotted line.
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HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range.
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They've been issued for the NW suburbs where they're most confident of warning level amounts for now.
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Depends on where the cyclogenesis happens. If it happens over NJ like the RGEM certainly. If it’s offshore like the other models, the N flow will pull the cold air in. It’s an arctic airmass being tapped.
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There’s no way there can be a GFS like outcome shifted 25-50mi southeast or even the numerous Euro outcomes that would be a solid hit everywhere? I’m as aware as anyone that I could be dealing with a mainly rain event here and the RGEM barely budged but that’s ridiculous.
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If we could tick the GFS 25 miles SE everyone would win. RGEM-no comment.
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I know, I used to live in Austin where I was urged to stay off any road after there was a tiny amount of sleet on the ground. Feb 2021 was an absolute disaster there and 6” in Houston would be just the same.
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Not sure where you are, NW NJ? But that looks like one of the best places to be for this event.
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For the billionth time it needs to be retired.
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Blowing and drifting for the Alamo?
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It’s not really elevation, it’s the storm’s track and speed that the cold air to the west can come in. It’s bone chilling cold right behind the storm. When the winds turn west temps should drop quick.
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It’ll be funny to see which either Euro or CMC ends up face planting. Hundreds of mile difference with 60hrs to go.
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Well-hope you’re right
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K.
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Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still.
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Sigh of relief.
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It hasn’t really budged. We’re at the point where you have to weigh it somewhat. And GFS did go NW at 6z. We’ll see soon enough what the overall trend is. If we see models lurch NW at 12z we’ll know where this is going.
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I said it before-would fit the winter theme to a T if in the 48 hours it’s warm enough we get a coastal hugger mostly rain then back to suppressed crap.
