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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Amish Annihilation.
  2. jm1220
    Final for that run (and it wasn't, there was minor additional even after this panel).
  3. jm1220
    Story's not close to being written on this yet. I wouldn't count anyone in this subforum at least as really being out. Might be shaping up as down here a crazy 10-12 hour burst of our snow and well NW a lighter 18 hour snow with the CCB feature.
  4. jm1220
    The v16 did a lot better on the 12/17 event overall than the retiring GFS, but the retiring GFS had us down here quite a bit colder and busted. Reversed this time with these-old GFS has the crappy thermals and the v16 annihilates us and most of you guys too. .
  5. jm1220
    Snowgoose FTW? (sorry I had to lol)
  6. jm1220
    Final
  7. jm1220
    Oh yes, wow and it's still snowing here. I really hope this model has a clue, it did better for the 12/17 event than regular GFS.
  8. jm1220
    This isn't really like Jan 2016. That was more miller A and El Nino fueled-you could track the moisture from it right to the tropical Pacific. This is more miller B-coastal transfer from a primary. It won't make it a lousy event but spawned differently.
  9. jm1220
    I think in the end you'll be fine (you're in Dutchess County N of I-84? If that far maybe/maybe not). Maybe not the highest amounts but good ratios will help and prolonged duration of lighter snow it looks like. These NW bumps seem to happen every time. I at least don't think you get shut out.
  10. jm1220
    Maybe the rain will taste like strawberries like on the commercial.
  11. jm1220
    GFS looks quite nice to me for most, best is focused on the coastal area but it trended NW again. Has a crazy Monday afternoon/evening snow burst that comes through on the easterly 850mb jet for coastal areas. It peters out north of the city. We'll see how far north that crusher snow batch can make it on that easterly jet along with max ratios.
  12. jm1220
    Also note in purple the freezing layers that could show what precip is left after 0z Tue could be sleet or sleet/rain mix (on this NAM run). Notice the small mid level warm layer and surface above freezing. Thankfully the crazy lift and heavy precip comes in before any warm layers arrive and the lift (and real precip) is gone by then.
  13. jm1220
    For White Plains-that's perfect for high ratio snow. So for NYC that's as far north as you'd want this to go on this NAM run.
  14. jm1220
    For NYC and LI on the 0z NAM the max lift is just below the -12 to -18C layer so ratios could be decent but not maximized (on this run). For best ratios you want the lift centered between the -12 and -18.
  15. jm1220
    I was never worried much about suppression, it was in the back of my mind this morning but it looks like this one's following the trend of 90% of storms. Question now is when the trend stops.
  16. jm1220
    Yeah I'll definitely take that lol. And it's still snowing here when the run ends, there's a CCB feature overhead.
  17. jm1220
    Yep, that's about picture perfect for NYC for big impact. Now we see how much more NW trend we have left to go in other models.
  18. jm1220
    That's about as far north as I want the NAM for my backyard. The mid level low tracks are still good for coastal areas but there's a dryslot and mild 850mb air that makes it to SE areas. Hellacious front end thump though before anything like that which the 12"+ amounts come from.
  19. jm1220
    The slow movement means the snow will linger quite a while. The heavy stuff shuts off once the east mid level flow backs down but there should be some semblance of CCB for some additional light amounts.
  20. jm1220
    Yeah, that’s about as good as it gets. Far NW is still fringed but that’s a crusher for 90-95% of us.
  21. jm1220
    That is one crazy 850mb easterly moist flow coming in on this. This’ll be a very nice event where that can be maximized and the cold air stands firm. It’s not a bombing out low where there’ll be 3-5”/hr bands I think but we can rack up totals well over a foot over the duration it’ll last. I’d pay more attention to where that easterly jet gets than the snow maps necessarily. The Euro that run as is gets the mix line close to the twin forks for a time and seems like it changes SE MA over. Hopefully it doesn’t amp much more.
  22. jm1220
    They probably aren’t I’d wager. Late north shifts happen almost every storm. Just hopefully it isn’t more than 50 miles or so, that way most of us can jackpot and the mix can stay offshore.
  23. jm1220
    Right now I’d say small odds but we have until tomorrow evening I’d say before we can lock in an all snow event. As we know it won’t take a huge change to bring the issues back. Before 12/17 there was a day or so head fake before the amped trends began and we got the nice event but inland got much more. This is a somewhat different setup and the confluence will only allow so much amping but you can never rule it out.
  24. jm1220
    That said there’s definitely a nice fetch of moisture coming in on that easterly mid level jet around the stalled out/crawling low so it will go to town somewhere as that sits overhead. Some swath probably gets 10-15”+ in that region.
  25. jm1220
    We have to keep watching the mid level low tracks. This can trend back to a place where the 700/850 lows track NW of many and the dryslot and rain come back. There’s still time for that too. Right now it’s perfect for LI/NYC/central NJ but 72 hours left.
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