jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Low 60s here, southerly winds and clouds mean we have a lot of catching up to do for temps. We won’t really rocket up until the front passes and winds turn westerly.
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The sea breeze made it here and we’re in the low 60s now but was over 70 earlier. At the same time Captree was at 50. So that map was even more crazy a couple hours ago. It can be brutal on the immediate shore this time of year and gets even worse when the Ambrose Jet gets going in the afternoon and the awfulness is gusting over 25-30 mph.
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Really warmed up today. 72 here now. Only 50 at Captree which is a 20 min or so drive south.
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If we see the trough build over the Maritimes and a big high, we know what that means. Garbage as long as that’s there.
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For west of the city sure. East of the city it's about when the front passes and winds turn westerly. If it's early to mid afternoon most of us could get over 70.
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Sound breeze for the extreme North shore too. Temps there in the low 50s with a north wind off the sound. Anywhere near a large body of water is chilly this time of year.
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Long Beach 51 degrees right now, my neighborhood 63. So glad I don’t have to endure “spring” there again.
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Yup. One of these days maybe soon a storm will take an Isaias track but hit NC instead as a cat 3. If that happened it would’ve been devastating even up to our area.
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Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes.
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Boom bust has been the cycle for sure. 17-18 had the huge March but lousy Feb, and had the big 1/4 storm. 15-16 snow came from late Jan into early Feb. 10-11 had the crushing month long period from Christmas to 2/1. This year for me 10” before the 1/31-2/1 storm and 30” within under 3 weeks after that, nada since.
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Might have contributed. It was a pretty solid bust by the models. Central Park had 0.63”, ISP 0.59” when close to 2” was widely shown. If this was snow we’d all be quite disappointed.
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The rain is looking like generally a bust also. Farmingdale has 0.43" so far when most models had close to 2". Maybe if we're lucky this rain from the Delmarva clips us and we end up at 0.75".
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Color me stunned.
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8" bullseye over my house. From that panel to God's eyes.
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LMAO-18z NAM actually develops a snow band for central NJ through LI overnight. The 10-1 maps have 5-8" from roughly Trenton through LI.
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3/16/07 May have been one of those setups, if I recall right there was a surface cold front east of here but mid level warm air still in place with the tons of sleet that storm had.
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I have 40” here (maybe a little more) so I definitely can’t say that’s a disappointment. 30” of it came in 3 weeks but seems like we get these boom and bust periods more often now.
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Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March.
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Yep, soaker incoming. Most of us should see close to 2” rain.
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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost
jm1220 replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
Down here? Sure. Always has been. We can use the rain though, that's good news at least. -
Even if the snow maps did show accums down here I’d be skeptical. It’s rare that we start with upper 40s and heavy rain but end up with decent snow accums in this area. This is an upstate NY/New England setup.
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Highly unlikely. Much more likely is Boston getting their 5-6” event that overtakes NYC for good this season. I don’t see it being more than a burst of snow at the end that barely or doesn’t accumulate around the city. Looks like a standard washout that becomes a cold washout with some slush at the end. North of town especially north of 84 could get a few inches.
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Light snow/snow grains a few minutes ago.
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The old GFS is the only model I can see bringing anything decent to near NYC/LI. Para GFS is largely a washout south of I-84 like the NAM and Euro. We could use the rain so that's a win I guess. There probably will be a changeover to snow/slush as it ends but it would be brief near the coast. I-90 corridor is heavily favored here.
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To me it looks like a mainly I-90 event with maybe some snow at the end down to NYC. Northern posters might get a few inches. I’m not too interested unless we get significant changes.
