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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    All you really need to see. This would be insane.
  2. jm1220
    That's not happening and I would ignore it.
  3. jm1220
  4. jm1220
    Revised thoughts: Central Park: 18" JFK: 16" Newark: 20" Middletown, NY: 20" Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22" Danbury: 20" Bridgeport: 18" White Plains: 21" Asbury Park: 12" Freehold: 18" Montauk: 8" Riverhead: 12" Long Beach: 14" Islip: 16" Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17" Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals.
  5. jm1220
    Where you see the blues would be where the best lifting is so you'd want to be just NW of it I'd think. But before this there's an insane front end batch of heavy snow anyway which means that the overall difference may be just a few inches or so between NYC and west of town, and by this point on the map the low is starting to occlude which means the snow will become more spotty/banded.
  6. jm1220
    Here's what I mean-it would be best if that 700 low was a bit further east, like offshore NJ. It's really being nitpicky at this point but this is why the heaviest amounts are over N NJ/E PA. Like I said if it happens this way I'll definitely sign on that dotted line.
  7. jm1220
    Yep it was a little better. If the 700 low can track east just a little more it would be ideal for everyone but regardless I'll take the 15" it gives me before any changeover that would likely just be drizzle anyway in the dryslot.
  8. jm1220
    Totals from the Euro. If anything looks a little better than last night.
  9. jm1220
    I could see it maybe for S Nassau and SW Suffolk. For the east end it's a question of the blizzard conditions lasting 3 hours or more due to mixing concerns.
  10. jm1220
    Amped is winning out as expected but hopefully we can get a small shift east before start. NYC and LI will probably be warm enough for rain for a time but it will be when the heavy precip is over anyway, so most end up getting about the same amounts, but the highest would be NW where you also get the better ratios.
  11. jm1220
    Should just make it a longer event. I don't expect much accumulation today or anything but it'll set the stage. Models all have this lasting through Tue in some form.
  12. jm1220
    These typically do.
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully that picks up soon. In my time there there (Jan 2015-Nov 2016) was a F1 that went less than a mile from me, decent hail events (best I saw was a golf ball severe event, luckily for me my car was under a canopy), a 80 mph bow echo and numerous other severe/tornado warnings. Anything I experienced on LI severe wise beneath paled in comparison.
  14. jm1220
    I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up.
  15. jm1220
    I would think you're in a decent place N of Providence for a while anyway. And I have to think it will end up a little less amped and more the way Miller B's typically turn out than the Euro has in the end.
  16. jm1220
    From my experience these front-enders don't just totally crap out like this even for you guys. It should cool the column enough at least for a few good hours. For the Cape and places like Plymouth sure I guess.
  17. jm1220
    Right, I can see the layout of what it's showing with the min for the CT River valley etc but the amounts to me are just crazy low. I'd bet good money Northborough MA does better than me in a Miller B. Boston I could see the easterly flow and matured low killing after a time.
  18. jm1220
    Yes, I'd have to think that's worth more than the 3" in Boston that map shows.
  19. jm1220
    That has to be too conservative, the PivotalWX and other maps are better. Is this based on Kuchera ratios? (FWIW for my backyard it's not too off from those but also a little conservative, I'll certainly take either).
  20. jm1220
    Yeah that wasn't fun. I think as the CCB pivoted I ended up with 3" or so. One I'd rather forget.
  21. jm1220
    I think they bump up somewhat and perhaps make blizzard warnings for southern Nassau/Suffolk/Twin forks.
  22. jm1220
    I'll certainly take it although the dry slot makes it here along with some rain. Just 50 miles or so SE can make it even more awesome though lol.
  23. jm1220
    No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet.
  24. jm1220
    Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time.
  25. jm1220
    12z for comparison. I'm not seeing a big difference. Better snow for the NW crew. I guess more GGEM-like with the max in E PA?
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