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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Not optimistic about anything to force a pattern change to warmer anytime soon. The cold SSTs east of Newfoundland aren’t going anywhere, and we keep seeing troughs wanting to dig in near there for the foreseeable future. That will keep the highs going over the Maritimes, and they’ll try to keep backdoors coming in. Maybe we won’t be dreary to today’s extreme later this month, but I’d be pretty stunned if May ends up above average for temps.
  2. jm1220
    Take a few hundred 747s, dump napalm and light the match east of Newfoundland. That cold anomaly up there will keep reinforcing the backdoors for as long as possible.
  3. jm1220
    The last few years have gone from winter, to socked-in, to summer. Of course, this year it's "winter", to socked-in to probably summer when the -NAO/marine layer crap finally breaks.
  4. jm1220
    That was a nice 3 hour warmup. Winds already backing to the east and noticeably chillier.
  5. jm1220
    Finally somewhat sunny outside and warm, even if very temporary as we’re about to get socked in again.
  6. jm1220
    Just cranked the heat up. On May 1st=no bueno.
  7. jm1220
    Troughs northeast of us in the Maritimes this time of the year almost always mean the backdoor gets most of us. This looks like a pretty deep trough too reinforced by the -NAO, so it'll be tough for surface warmth to make it this far NE.
  8. jm1220
    Moderate shower coming through now. Looked at sunset like we were clearing out and the sun broke through briefly, but then showers started rotating in again from the Sound.
  9. jm1220
    Nice surprise rain event here. Quite a soaking, gauges here are all over 1”.
  10. jm1220
    Coming down in buckets here in Huntington. Local gauges have 0.75” now.
  11. jm1220
    Models have the storm stacking and starting to dissipate west of us, so here it's just showery but west where the low is still strengthening has more organized heavy rain.
  12. jm1220
    Was very nice in Huntington this afternoon, probably around 70 and partly cloudy. Then I drove to Long Beach which fought back and forth with fog, later on gusty south winds, and couldn’t have been higher than 60. Springtime is by far the worst season there.
  13. jm1220
    I remember back door front passages in Long Beach where you could watch the stratus deck come in off the ocean and feel an instant temp drop. Wonder if this was one of those.
  14. jm1220
    Feels summerlike outside. Temps rocketed as soon as the clouds broke. Local weather stations are in the mid-upper 70s here. South of the Southern State is where it seems to cool down, to the shore where it's 55-60. Sharp gradient but typical this time of year. Really sharp demarcation NE of a line from New Haven to Danbury from the backdoor front which is unfortunately headed this way.
  15. jm1220
    Highs this time of year on models are often underdone. Trees aren’t fully leafed out, meaning less moisture in the air from transpiration.
  16. jm1220
    Sleet in Melville.
  17. jm1220
    No one can be thrilled with 40s and light rain/stratus, which we can easily have many days of in a backdoor pattern. 60s or 70s/sun is awesome. Hopefully on the north shore now there won’t be the Ambrose Jet frigid days Long Beach gets stuck with.
  18. jm1220
    The -NAO pattern developing on the long range GFS and Euro=yuuuuck for a good long stretch. It'll be backdoor city because of the low heights NE of us, and it looks like the parade of storms from the Pacific will continue and keep us wet. Really hoping that's overdone. The blocking shown over Greenland will do away with any kind of warmth here as long as that persists. And no, it won't be cold enough for snow outside of the high elevations in NY and New England.
  19. jm1220
    I’m still there pretty frequently. I’ll be there tomorrow actually. Haven’t seen the new dunes really, I’ll have to check them out. Last I really saw of them they were still under construction.
  20. jm1220
    Yup. Moved closer to my job in Melville and the extra snow helps... In just the 10 minute drive from my apartment to Melville you can tell the difference.
  21. jm1220
    Places in the sun are patchy coverage by me, but shaded areas still have a few inches or more of cement.
  22. jm1220
    You definitely notice a difference south of the LIE, I have a few inches in many places that’s frozen solid enough to walk on, and mostly complete snow cover. South of the LIE it becomes patchy, and in Long Beach it’s probably nothing but some mall piles.
  23. jm1220
    Ratios at JFK were also likely much less than 10-1, temps were above freezing, and it was warmer aloft than expected. Even up here in a colder location on LI, the snow intensity wasn’t really anything great until temps warmed up and it had a hard time accumulating when it wasn’t mixed with rain or sleet. If the ground to 800mb was 2 degrees colder, there would be widespread 8-10” amounts here instead of a few inches.
  24. jm1220
    RGEM really flunked this one. It was pretty obvious given models like the Euro and NAM being warmer and risking a mix on the coast cutting down amounts, but it’s a far cry from the go-to model it was a couple winters ago.
  25. jm1220
    We can do fine down here in March with the right conditions. Last late March’s 12”+ storm and Apr 2nd morning storm are examples.
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