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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    The direct impact zone will be pretty small from this. It’s not really transitioning from tropical as it gets here. It’s definitely possible it landfalls in Montauk and there’s not much happening in NYC.
  2. jm1220
    Yep seriously. Bye.
  3. jm1220
    And for the Sandy/1938/Carol etc thoughts, the pre-Sandy ones likely had big helps from the mid-latitude jet accelerating them and adding energy. Donna I can't say but likely the same story. Sandy essentially became the Perfect Storm 1991 literally doubled due to Sandy's own intensity, huge size, the trough phasing in and blocking high which drove it NW. This is nothing like that. Not to say this won't have significant impact somewhere but I think it's mostly rain related and over CT or 50 miles or so W and SW of where it tracks.
  4. jm1220
    Unless it seriously gets going soon I'm not sold on it coming ashore as more than a 50-60mph tropical storm. A compact system like this will fade pretty quick north of the Gulf Stream unless it hauls which models aren't doing. Sure there will be wind and surge impacts east of the track but the small size and diminishing intensity would mean a small area of impacts from those. I'm starting to lean to this more as a rain event. Again watch this explode tomorrow but still.
  5. jm1220
    My thought is over the Twin Forks but close enough. Henri's struggling so it might be fairly irrelevant in the end other than where the heavy rain sets up. There won't be that bad a surge and wind impact if it doesn't start ramping up soon, and also since it'll have to rely on being purely tropical north of the Gulf Stream. It'll have a nasty (damaging but not widely destructive) impact in terms of surge in the funneling bays and winds on the east side but if it kinda stays as is I think it might tick east some more and be generally known as a rain event with power outages where the border hurricane gusts happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll all be humbled with an eye as it pounds into a Cat 2 but I'm not seeing the wow here.
  6. jm1220
    Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side.
  7. jm1220
    And for the record if this does become a RI/SE Mass storm, awesome (not for them obviously). After Sandy I’m done ever rooting on a hurricane again.
  8. jm1220
    This might really nudge east but I wouldn’t base that on the Nam. Very subtle interactions will shift the track.
  9. jm1220
    Fine by me.
  10. jm1220
    This is narrowing down IMO to Moriches to Block Island for landfall. And not a huge area of direct impacts like tropical systems usually are for this area.
  11. jm1220
    Naked swirl warning has a nice ring to it lol.
  12. jm1220
    Yup, that low can still easily nudge it east as much as tug it west.
  13. jm1220
    If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once.
  14. jm1220
    Irene went about 10 miles west of me on the south shore of LI. Winds were strong enough to knock some larger trees down but nothing “extreme”. I’m not sold on the huge wind potential for this one either. If this blows up to a strong Cat 2 maybe but if it straggles as a minimal hurricane it’ll reach us as a mid grade tropical storm.
  15. jm1220
    Comes down to how much it strengthens IMO. If it stays weak maybe it goes east like the HWRF but if it really blows up, it might get pulled west more. That was a decent jump east on the HWRF though. Most likely to me it comes in east of the William Floyd Pkwy somewhere.
  16. jm1220
    I’d monitor the hurricane models more for strength. They show a strong TS most likely at landfall.
  17. jm1220
    15z would be really bad timing with the high tide. Hopefully that can slow down to more like 18-21z.
  18. jm1220
    That’s a shift west. It’s been tracking it around Block Island or east before. I doubt the NJ landfalls we’re seeing on some models but an eastern Suffolk landfall looking more likely on Sun AM. At Jones Beach the high tide’s at 9:30AM Sun. Hopefully the speed can slow down so it comes in at low tide in the afternoon. HMON has been pretty consistent the last 2 runs in tracking it about over my head and HWRF takes it about over Shinnecock Canal.
  19. jm1220
    Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm.
  20. jm1220
    That being said the surge won’t be nearly as bad as Sandy. As others pointed out the driver for the surge there was the huge size and track which funneled water into LI Sound and NY Harbor. But if this starts really trending west toward Sandy Hook then NYC really does have to start worrying.
  21. jm1220
    That track would be horrendous for the south shore of LI as well. I’d have to look up high tides but that may be close to high tide. Fire Island and the Hamptons would get walloped. Hopefully this doesn’t keep going west otherwise NY Harbor has to worry.
  22. jm1220
    Anyone to the right of the track would get a nasty surge. How high is uncertain because of how intense the storm will get, how large in size, forward movement speed and low/high tide but enough to cause some major flooding. Winds are also much higher to the right of the track so if it makes landfall as a 75mph storm, gusts would probably reach 90-95mph. There would be little rain other than squalls, the heavy rain would be west of the track with much less surge and wind. Sandy was a huge sized storm which worsened the surge and it struck Atlantic City.
  23. jm1220
    If the trends continue at 12z I would at least extend the hurricane watch to Sandy Hook. West of the track won’t have anywhere near the wind impact of places east but the 30 mile difference in track to the west could bring it into NYC. Keep in mind also with the wet ground the wind will cause a ton of tree damage. Likewise with Isaias there was almost no rain over LI but lots of wind and tree damage. The talking point after wasn’t how NJ got 3-5” rain.
  24. jm1220
    I’d much rather be west of the center of this. No one talks about how the Jersey Shore, LI and NYC had less than 1” rain from Sandy and how DC got crushed by 6-8”. Starting to get concerned with these west trends. Hopefully those are done and it ticks back east. This won’t be a Sandy but east of the center could still be in for some really rough surge and wind.
  25. jm1220
    And yes HWRF shifted west pretty substantially. Last run it was over Marthas Vineyard.
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