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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Not necessarily. Most of us had 40" or more snow last winter with it being above average temps. Average snow has been increasing with the temps. It definitely won't last forever but we're moving to a climate where we have 2-3 big storms give us snow vs numerous smaller storms.
  2. jm1220
    03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc.
  3. jm1220
    Somewhat OT but for fans of Deadliest Catch, it seems when they have the awful, cold, stormy winters to deal with we bake. Hopefully for us there’s no ice and few storms there.
  4. jm1220
    We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent.
  5. jm1220
    Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm.
  6. jm1220
    That’s a good thing so far and hopefully it gets more east based but the PDO is awful to put it mildly. We can still have Atlantic blocking which looks to set in late this month and hopefully lasts into Dec. So it’ll be dueling influences on how things turn out. Where the Aleutian ridge sets up is key too, hopefully we can get that set up steep and far north so it can surge cold air coming into Canada. If that ridge is flatter it just brings in Pacific air into the continent.
  7. jm1220
    29 here this morning.
  8. jm1220
    I thought last winter would be a disaster and it ended over 40” for most of us so when it comes to seasonal forecasting I generally just shrug at this point. Odds I would have to say do favor a lousy winter vs good. But hopefully we can be pleasantly surprised.
  9. jm1220
    If the Nina strengthens in the east vs central Pacific it isn’t so bad. Central based Ninas are worse than east based. The PDO is horrible though, no sugar coating that. We need the help from the Atlantic for sure.
  10. jm1220
    It’ll be interesting to see what made everything go nuts once the line went east of NYC. Small hail at my house, a few tornado warnings and damage reported on LI and obviously for you guys too. More instability up here? Tornado outbreaks on LI are unheard of.
  11. jm1220
    Quite windy now behind the storms.
  12. jm1220
    Pea size hail and torrential rain in Long Beach. I can think of maybe one other time ever I’ve seen hail in Long Beach.
  13. jm1220
    Certainly explains the cold SSTA anomalies we see there now. Thanks!
  14. jm1220
    95-96 having that Aleutian ridge more poleward may have helped as well to get more cold air involved? But no doubt, this winter we need all the Atlantic help we can get. If the NAO won’t cooperate it won’t be pretty. The SSTA west of Canada argues for a big time -PNA.
  15. jm1220
    I think we got down to 31, surfaces were frosty this morning.
  16. jm1220
    31 here.
  17. jm1220
    It's a more sparsely populated and wooded area so it cools off faster on nights like these. It's nearer to the north shore and hilly so it gets more snow than southern areas but it's not special compared to other north shore places. The Pine Barrens is the coldest spot on LI on nights like these but it warms right up when winds go onshore. Temp IMBY down to 37. There'll definitely be frost when the sun comes up.
  18. jm1220
    40 here, 46 north of me in Eatons Neck and also 47-48 on the ocean. Another radiational cooling night.
  19. jm1220
    33 here and also frost.
  20. jm1220
    There was a storm on 1/2/96 that was a I-90 snowstorm and down here was ice/rain mostly which is what you’re referring to. Thankfully the pattern reoriented and the blizzard happened 6 days later.
  21. jm1220
    La Niña happens when trade winds are stronger than usual in the tropical Pacific. I haven’t seen any research about whether global warming would weaken or strengthen trade winds. I don’t think we’re more or less predisposed to Nina or Nino these days. 2 winters ago was a Nino I think and it was a disaster.
  22. jm1220
    We'll need blocking whenever we can get it this winter to force cold air down. You can already see the roaring Nina Pacific getting started on the models for late this week/next week that will want to keep it zonal and flood the continent with mild air.
  23. jm1220
    Sun coming out in Huntington.
  24. jm1220
    Was quite gusty before the heavy rain came through, curiously when the rain started the wind essentially ceased. Was likely a nasty few hours in Long Beach and immediate shore.
  25. jm1220
    Windier here now than it ever was with the last storm.
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