jm1220

Salivating at the radar coming up from NJ. And looks like it has a couple pushes west into the city and a bit further.

About 2” here. Lots more blowing snow over the last 15-20 min.

Heavy snow here in Long Beach. Picked up in the last few minutes. Let’s go!!

I’ll say that if the 40-50+ mph winds don’t happen tomorrow or in the meat if the storm then ratios might work out. Lift looks good in the temp layer (-12 to -18C) for a while for most of us where dendrites would form. But the 970 or under MB low expected will generate much stronger winds by the morning and would ruin it by breaking the flakes up. Ratios are about the temp where the flakes are made in the cloud and those flakes making it to the ground. I’ve been in 10 degrees before in a bunch of 10-1 ratio at best sand flakes because of poor growth. Not saying it’ll happen here but you can’t just take it’ll be cold and it’s snowing for big ratios.

Long Island-Incoming. Interested to see where this westernmost band shaping up over SE NJ ends up. Could be over the city by the looks of it.

Can he pilot about 1000 military planes to about 200 miles east of Charleston and dump about a billion ice cubes in the water so the convection would stop there? Please and thanks. In all seriousness it’s nowcast time and we just have to see how it evolves.

No but people shouldn’t think there will be 18” on 1” liquid either.

That’s what we don’t want. We want that convection to be weaker. That might be the mechanism to string out the low and drag it east. But the short range models are in good shape so hopefully not.

Incoming for the city east-first heavy band coming in from Monmouth. Also have an inch or so here in Long Beach.

Right here. For the 1000th time the Kuchera amounts aren’t happening. Those seem to assume like 16-1 ratios and that won’t happen in the strong winds we have in the meat of the storm and especially tomorrow. 12-1 sure so you can increase the 10-1 map somewhat but not too much. It would still be a great event though regardless.

Perhaps the beginning of the outer heavy snow band. Let’s see how far west it can get up here. Unfortunately NW of that is likely the big cutoff.

Borderline moderate in Long Beach. Good coating on all surfaces other than the street. Radar looking good to the SW. Here we go.

I think it’s HRRR/RAP time at this point. And they’re both trending better gradually.

It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts.

NYC 0.8” or so liquid on the last few HRRR runs.

HRRR seems to be getting better with the storm evolution and steady with me about 1.2-1.3” liquid. Hopefully we can get 12-1 ratios which would be 14-16”. Suffolk has 1.5-1.7” which should be 20”+ in places.

Light snow in Long Beach. Surfaces beginning to be coated.

What a hilarious shift this close in. Models really have no clue here.

That was a nice improvement. HRRR/RAP are also holding steady or improving. Maybe we’ve got a shot after all here.

Partly yes. It’s warm advection ahead of the main low (whatever that is given the model trends) developing off the Carolinas.

Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch.

This is… pretty crazy. I thought warm Atlantic waters are supposed to help storms, not make them sheared out garbage?

I’m still reasonably optimistic I get 12” in Long Beach where I’ll be. But normally with a look like that aloft I’d be thinking 18”. Maybe we should get in a boat and head 500 miles east to go storm chasing later with the amount of energy this convection is supposed to steal. Im hoping it’s overdone but I’m not the one with the Ph.D to be able to tell one way or the other.

A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east.

I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is.