jm1220

The only way we get a substantial flash freeze is if there’s substantial precip with the cold front. Models are generally backing off that, maybe a quick 0.2” or so. Most of the rain comes with the warm front on Fri AM. And since the cold air is coming in on SW winds, it’ll be modified significantly. Still quite cold with mid to upper teens (around 10 NW) and wind but nothing that noteworthy for us.

Turning into a snowy cold front passage for most of that area and the low takes forever to organize. Sounds familiar like a certain storm on 1/29 last winter? Not to say it didn't come together for many people but it could've been way better without the competing vorts/double low.

If we were all in Chicago we'd be getting pissed at this development of these secondary "convective feedback" lows along the wave/vorts pushing out ahead of the main trough that seems to be stealing from the heavy snow CCB they would be getting. Looks like this might be real again but it wouldn't mean snow for us-but it could mean a nastier time in terms of wind and heavy rain. Sound familiar-like a certain storm on 1/29 this year where that happening probably cost NYC 12" of snow?

It doesn't even look like that big a snowstorm coming up with this late week event anywhere outside the snowbelts. Looks like the trough takes a while to close off and the surface low to deepen enough for a CCB heavy snow shield to form over the Midwest and when it does close off, the low occludes quickly and there's only really heavy snow for parts of Michigan. Our secondary low(s) along the cold front might take some of their moisture/snow away too. Chicago area might just get 3-6". Reminds me a little of the "convective feedback" area that we screamed at during the 2 January events last winter. This looks a little like that with the waves ahead of the main trough forming secondary lows that in this case hug the coast/go just inland along the cold front and might make our storm worse in terms of heavy rain and winds.

Yikes. That would make sense with the strong onshore flow though. And it’s a new moon.

Fine by me. If it won't snow I'd rather it be comfortable outside. Cutter to cold to cutter is the worst.

It’s why it’s a fallacy to say “the cutters always work out 6 days in advance but the NYC snowstorms don’t”. We couldn’t care less if the cutter changes 150-200 miles in track, it’s still a cutter and washout. But for Chicago it makes a big difference. A change like that for us is always a big deal.

Should allow a mercy rule for the high rollers.

Yup. This front coming through will cool those waters down somewhat but these marine heatwaves even more than the global indices are driving the patterns these days. The Australia marine heatwave has helped create more of a Nina pattern than would be the case if those waters were cooler. I've said for a while that 20-30 years from now our climate will probably resemble the VA Tidewater. It snows there in the right setups but I don't think there's any question we're due for payback from our epic 10-15 winters run.

It didn't get work after our 0.5" on Mon AM? What a pity.

The Pacific refusing to go along with this -NAO/AO pattern to such an extent that the SE Ridge is actually linking with the NAO block does it for me. The pieces are there but get chased away like dust bunnies by this massive cutter. This month is done, hopefully Jan can turn things around.

Unfortunately many have to get burned enough times to finally learn. That was me when I was younger lol.

Euro a strong cutter at 12z but seems more meh with the frontal passage than CMC. Low occludes over Michigan and it's breezy/windy here but not 70+ gusts like the CMC. We get into the mid teens in the city, around 10 NW on Christmas Eve AM. Seems like the determining factor between roaring frontal passage and more meh like the Euro is if we can get a wave/secondary low develop closer to us.

Maybe in part but that death band sat over central Suffolk which made it cold enough. Up where I live now it's usually 2-3 degrees colder than NYC all else being equal which made it cold enough to flip to snow sooner. In Long Beach where I lived then it was infuriating watching the wasted heavy rain and sleet for hours. I remember seeing posts where it was heavy snow down to Sunrise Highway but still sleet at my house. It of course did snow hard eventually but 2 degrees colder and there would've been 20" instead of 10-11".

I was a toddler then. My focus was throwing spaghetti on the walls lol. I remember 93-94 as a cold snowy winter but 95-96 really got me into weather.

The Feb 8 2013 event wasn't ruined for many of us by the track, it was the primary low bringing in warm air that had to be dealt with by the bombing coastal, which SNE is far enough north to not worry about. Without that initial warm air NYC would've gotten over 20" easy. Parts of Westchester had over 20".

This Dec will probably be slightly below average temps. See how well that's working for us.

It's frustrating but we obviously have way long to go. Feb 2021 was a purely awesome winter month despite Jan being horrendous and walking into Feb 1st with only the 8" I got before rain on 12/16/20, then 30" in 15 days and the snow lasting. Hopefully we can get some blocking to come back later in the winter and we can time that with a cooperating Pacific. One thing this new climo is good for is making something work in a big way when we can get the pieces together.

Hence my being hopeful but not excited when this pattern was being advertised. We also saw ways it could go wrong when the Pacific refused to play ball and here we are. Maybe we can salvage a good January run like many of us last winter.

I doubt it happens like that with this weird multiple centers evolution. That usually happens when the model can't figure out where to put the main center under the strong dynamics/lift advancing NE. What I want to see is it digging a little later/further east. If we have a strong neutral tilted trough over the MS Valley we're in trouble.

Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to.

Maybe not that cold. Strong 970mb low over Hagerstown would likely spike us to 50 for a while.

N winds behind the low finally pulling cold air down.

Something else Nina’s are known for… northern stream dominant systems. I know there are many other factors influencing things but this Nina has to end.

Apparently there was moderate flooding today in the Nassau/Suffolk south shore bays during high tide. I don’t see any media/Facebook photos yet so maybe not too bad.