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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    One thing I hate is useless cold. If it won’t snow I’d like it mild. Cold/windy and dry patterns are the worst.
  2. jm1220
    Some mid 90s in central Nassau ahead of the seabreeze boundary. 92 here.
  3. jm1220
    I ended with about 15” here. Given our 30 year average here in the mid 30s per winter, anything below 20” I’d consider an F. Until the Pacific pattern meaningfully changes we have to significantly beat the odds to get even an average snow winter. Temps well above average are just about given. Maybe we can time a relaxation of the PAC jet for a snow event or two. Or buy a cabin in MT/the Dakotas where there’s actually still winter.
  4. jm1220
    Can’t rule out a late heat surge next month. But looks cooler than average if anything for the next week.
  5. jm1220
    6 months of autumn.
  6. jm1220
    For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air.
  7. jm1220
    Yep, maybe mid 90s today if we can get the downslope WNW flow.
  8. jm1220
    Severe threat trimmed north of I-195 for tomorrow, looks like a better shot for the South Jersey Alley stretch.
  9. jm1220
    At least with back doors this time of year they don’t come with gunky stratus clouds and mist. But if we’re going back to a pattern with troughs/high pressure to our NE it will be hard to sustain any kind of heat.
  10. jm1220
    It did get breezy where I was but really blew up just south of me.
  11. jm1220
    Looks like it’s blowing up just west of ISP. Some dark red/purples on it.
  12. jm1220
    Here in Smithtown, absolutely dumping but no hail so far.
  13. jm1220
    In Smithtown, storms firing all over. Looks like just N of here might be some hail.
  14. jm1220
    Thankfully looks like the storms weakened a little before hitting Suffolk. They don’t need another drop.
  15. jm1220
    Severe watch up for eastern Suffolk. We’ll see what can survive across the Sound.
  16. jm1220
    From now through Sept even into Oct is the best weather period for us. The heat dies down but still quite comfortable and no back door abominations or frigid cold seabreeze like the spring. The main thing to worry about is the tropics.
  17. jm1220
    It’s the one month that can still be cold for us. The insane W PAC MJO forcing is cold for us then before we’re blasted away with the Pacific jet for the next 4 months. I’m bearish on any kind of snowy winter here again until that goes away or we draw an inside straight somehow like 2020-21.
  18. jm1220
    Amazing Top 10 day out.
  19. jm1220
    Looks like the highest official LI total was the 10” in Sound Beach. Somewhere under that stalled T-storm yesterday from St James to Terryville likely ended with 12”. The radar estimate was over 14”.
  20. jm1220
    In any Nina if we don't see something decent in December it almost certainly won't ever happen. We had the Dec 2020 snowy pattern which came back in Feb, Dec 2010 into Jan 2011, Dec 1995... you know, 1/4/18 which came back in March etc but plenty of other Ninas which were lousy in Dec and stayed that way.
  21. jm1220
    Not when it never starts!
  22. jm1220
    Should already be through, winds are shifting to NW.
  23. jm1220
  24. jm1220
    Last brief moderate/heavy shower here and we’re finally done.
  25. jm1220
    Since places there as of this morning were at 9-10", it's a decent possibility. Rt 347 must be a lake.
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