jm1220

Within 25-30 years we’ll likely have multiple deadly heat waves where NYC gets over 105 degrees in the summer over multiple days, maybe even each summer. We’ve lucked out over the last few summers where the worst of the summer heat has been SW of us. That won’t last forever. TX and FL had their record or near record hottest summer this year.

I hope you have your affairs in order.

Brief snow shower here in Melville.

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away.

Plenty of time for it to trend boring but 18z GFS has over 40kt SSE winds overnight Sun into Mon. That's definitely enough to bring some trees down/scattered power outages.

1993 was way better IMBY. 3/2017 was maybe 3” of slush to rain which washed it all away. When 24 hours before it was expected to be 12-18”. It’s one of the most disappointing storms I ever experienced.

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century.

I vaguely remember a lot of flooding in Long Beach with the fallen snow, and a lot of it freezing over after the storm passed. The coastal flooding caused all of it to turn into icebergs. I remember tons of ice in 93-94 and praying like you did that the 2/4/1995 storm wouldn’t change to rain. Then we had the 95-96 blitz and being amazed at the amounts of snow.

I’m fine with a lousy pattern at this point, if there aren’t signs of a change by 1/15 I’ll get concerned then. 1982-83 had its huge snow event in Feb, 2015-16 in late Jan, 09-10 other than 12/19 lit up in Feb, 02-03 was big in Feb etc. I’d like a snow event in Dec of course but like you said we can get pretty close to average here with one monster (avg IMBY is about 35” so maybe to 2/3rds) And there was more here especially NYC on East after the record Jan 2016 event, there was also an event in Feb IMBY that was about 10”. In any event this winter can’t possibly be worse than last winter so there’s that too. I had the 5” on 2/28 which was gone in a day and besides that some dusting/coatings to an inch.

Somewhat OT but Central Park I thought got 2.3” in the 2/28/23 event. Maybe they got shafted by UHI since a degree or two difference that event meant white rain vs 4-6” of cement.

That's not at all what he said lol.

If we get to 1/15 and there’s still no sign of a cold pattern change I’d start to worry then. Otherwise Nino December’s are usually lousy. It would be nice to have something in the bank this month but it’s not necessary for an above average snow winter. Look how Dec 2015 was and what we ended with.

AGW causes you to roll snake eyes more often but there are still plenty of possibilities for good winters. However the average probability of a rat all else equal definitely is going up. We have numerous factors on a yearly basis that are more impactful than that background signal. We were (hopefully still are) in a snowy Northeast period from 2000-2018, and eventually the pendulum will swing away. There’s been record cold in MT/WY/Northern Plains in recent winters so it can definitely still happen. Just remains to be seen if we’re back in a 1980s to mid 1990s lousy stretch. Eventually it’s bound to happen. Anyone knows Central Park long term isn’t getting away with over 30” snow averages and that’s even before AGW impacts.

+NAO is better?

Hopefully this winter there will be numerous spot on the money measurements from Smithtown and plenty of snow hikes. Need to preserve our >35” average since the late 1990s.

Was gorgeous up here if not mostly cloudy. I was outside in a T-shirt much of the afternoon.

Yes-I wonder if something could be causing the PV to locate over Siberia or if it’s just been bad luck. Later into Jan, we won’t need arctic cold for snow, just a good enough airmass not totally ruined by Pacific garbage and a good storm track. Once the waters cool down we have more leeway to work with near the city.

Win for the NAM for a change. Most models had 0.25 or so when NAM was wetter.

From Syracuse to Watertown on I-81 it’s essentially nothing, and even Watertown we’d consider to be a pretty small town. Syracuse proper is a better bet-not the most snow but still tons (they average 140”) as far as any of us are concerned plus being in an actual city/small metro with cheap living cost.

I’m sure most of that is from the bonanza period 2001-2018. We get more big Nor’easters (or did in that period) that drop more precip as snow with the favorable tracks. We’ll see if we’re in a new climate period now where the West/Plains/NNE are favored. Not to repeat everything Bluewave has been mentioning but we’ve entered a much more Nina-like state. Since we’re in a strong Nino now, hopefully it can suppress the SE ridge enough to allow for those big offshore Nor’easter tracks again for a while, along with the STJ to bring the storms.

We’re surrounded by warm waters here. Speaks for itself.

The original bomb cyclone (lol) didn’t make it west of I-95 that far but they made up for it in the Mar 2018 storms especially 3/7 when it was white rain on the south shore mostly and well over a foot in NJ. Everyone eventually cashed in. Hopefully we get the sustained cold because like you said we haven’t gotten out of those without a big snow event in the last 8 winters or so.

Any wind reports from the Sun night event? Rain underperformed but winds were gusting over 50mph on the south shore. Lots of branches down in my neighborhood too.

We're probably going to be on the more windy east side of the low but less rain. Big west trend with the low/rain today.

Good tradeoff. My brother/his fiance's on his way up here now from S FL. 81F and partly cloudy when he took off.