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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Getting hot, will probably be some nice storms.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Sky is bright blue, clear. Yesterday the storms moved in as a "high energy front". I would say the same thing happens today.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Somewhat of a subsurface recovery, we are still in El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised for Nino 3.4 to warm in the next few weeks.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The North Pacific looks very El Ninoish for the next 15 days. Subsurface is cooling. -OLR for the first time in a long time near 180W is going to keep us away from a +north Pacific Hadley cell though, despite neutral/negative ENSO.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is Weak La Nina, but the +PNA is stringent. Through the next 15 days, wonder why the disconnect.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Cold May begats thunderstorm-less Summer
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like a -AO period really takes hold in the medium and long range.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here we go again [(Major govt interference)]
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As expected, we're getting this near-surface subsurface warming
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty strong El Nino pattern coming up I think we are still going into El Nino
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Kind of disappointing.. you could tell earlier today with the way the clouds were low and throughout that it wasn't going to do clear enough for storm. Lifted index is -3 to -4, radar is dying out a bit.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at all these storm reports already today
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Classic El Nino looking pattern on the long range GFS
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this +Nino 1.2 cold-PDO difference in the last 7 days https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looks good for tomorrow.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It might just recenter West and ramp up for a Fall-Winter 2019-2020 El Nino Get some cold 1.2 readings over the Summertime for hurricane season
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Still a chance.. we basically didn't see +PNA at all, not even for 1 day in many years of no-El Nino
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    That looks like a graph of strength of the global system imo. It's been +AO though.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at how this El Nino has just completely collapsed.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just like pretty much every El Nino after 97-00.. Warm Nino 4, cold 1.2. 6/7. La Nina's are colder in the east (Nino 3) too.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Sometimes it does this, becomes a purely surface-based movement. We saw this in 1982, 1972, 1997.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this. Reminds me of the Winter.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprised no one has mentioned the Euro.
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