hawkeye_wx

The Euro is actually a bit north from 12z and is the best of the non-NAM models.

The GFS has gone to sh*t over the last few runs. It barely has any snow at all now, certainly nothing in Iowa. One very notable trend over the last couple days of runs is for the moisture source to get whisked away, out of the picture, so there's little left for the PV to squeeze out.

While the Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor has been ground zero for snow this winter, the Cedar River begins up in north-central IA into southern MN. That area has received much less snow.

Models are mostly trying to bypass the western sub with the post-PV cutter. I would need the PV to exit more quickly and the incoming northern wave to slow down, which might create and opening for the strong southern wave to cut more nw.

The 12z Euro is ok, but there's just not much moisture because the surface front (with waves riding along it) is way down in the Gulf of Mexico.

The random bullish model runs have no follow-through. Usually, the very next run is a big jump back south.

We need the PV lobe to delay its southward plunge for a day so the pacific wave has an opening. Something like the 06z GFS would be ideal.

1.1" total here from only 0.03" liquid. That's a 36:1 ratio.

A yellow band on radar has been parked over that area for a couple hours. 4-5+" reports are not surprising at all. I will have to settle for a bit over 1".

I'm at about an inch so far. It's a bit clumpy. Unlike the disappointing 10:1 snow a couple days ago, this stuff is pure dandelion fluff.

Even here on the northern edge of the band, the flakes are large and floating down like feathers. I just wish it was heavier.

The heavier snow has remained south of me so far. I'd really like it to lift north a bit.

So, of course, the 00z Euro decides to flip to what the GFS had been doing and crushes any chance of any precip in our region. Ugh.

The GFS has improved significantly next weekend. Hopefully, this wave will pan out better than the Superbowl wave train has.

It's about -15º here in the city. The Cedar Rapids airport officially hit -20º

I have received only 0.7" of snow this afternoon. I expected a bit better, but the ratio is lousy. The 0.7" of snow melted down to 0.07" liquid, so a 10:1 ratio.

I only need about 15" (after today's snow) to break the Cedar Rapids record. Bring it on.

All the models this morning are very active into the extended range.

It did not take long for the snow to reach the ground here. It's snowing pretty good. I may be able to get an inch before it quickly moves out.

Brutal cold behind the system, too.

00z GFS

Two other storm notes... - The Cedar Rapids airport reported a 51 mph gust. I don't remember hearing any local met mention 50 mph as a possibility. DVN did not issue a blizzard warning, but I believe we did meet the criteria. - Most models had the precip starting as rain here, but we got none. It began as some sleety snow and quickly changed to snow.

I finished with 5.8". Cedar Rapids was bulls-eyed by the storm five days ago and it was again today. Cedar Rapids is the new Des Moines. This was essentially two storms. The first two inches fell with little wind and were wet and heavy. The next four inches were a blizzard. The driveways and sidewalks collected all the dry stuff that blew around. The shoveling job took three hours (mine and my neighbor's). The piles are rivaling February 2008 when over 2 ft of snow fell and we equaled the season record. My season total is up to 44.8".

While I had not yet bought into the jackpot totals on some models, no models were predicting anything less than 3" in Cedar Rapids. At the time, my point forecast said 1-3", which didn't really make sense.

As of 1:20pm, my snow total is up to 5.0". When you're hot, you're hot. The heavy snow is over, but a couple more hours of lighter snow might get us to 6".