hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Another 2" in the last hour.... 7.6" total.
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It's a shame this is passing through so quickly. The back edge of the real heavy snow is within 20 minutes of me.
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5.6" here at 5pm.
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This is awesome. Our heavy snow (1.5+"/hr) with small flakes just turned into cotton balls. Radar says no mix anywhere close.
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Up to 3.9" here, 1.7" last hour. There is no mix approaching highway 30 (Cedar Rapids), so we should easily go past 6".
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Pretty heavy snow here, up to 2.2".... 1.4" last hour. The rate has peaked in the last 15 minutes. It is dry and fluffy, blowing quite a bit.
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The 3kNAM had ZERO snow accumulation in southwest Iowa. That area actually received 7".
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Coming down pretty good in Cedar Rapids.
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Definite trend from the Euro, weakening and shearing east earlier. This system peaks in the southern plains.
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Final Euro for wave #1.
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Most models are looking good for Cedar Rapids. The NAM continues to insist WAA aloft will surge up through the area and kill snow totals.
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UK not budging
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The 00z 3k NAM is very aggressive with the WAA. Even Cedar Rapids only gets a few hours of snow.
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NAM still surging the sleet and freezing rain into Cedar Rapids to southern Wisconsin.
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Yes, this is pretty ugly. Other models show something similar.
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This would be a dream storm, but 2+"/hr for several hours, which is what the HRRR is forecasting, is not realistic for Iowa. We are not Binghampton.
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Honest question. Does WAA ever underperform and sleet stays farther south during setups like this?
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HRRR and 3kNAM are so close over here, but the small difference is a big deal. The 3kNAM continues to lift sleet into Cedar Rapids for at least a few hours while snow continues to dump barely north. The HRRR keeps us snow.
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You are correct. It's weaker and loses some of the cooling, leading to more crap precip.
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Euro is nw again. Thermals are really garbage.
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Euro wave #1.
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UK nw again with wave 2. There's solid agreement with the nw track now. The farther-southeast Canadian is the outlier. Of course, this is still four days away... plenty of time to shift around.
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UK continues to tick southeast with wave #1. The question is... is the UK correct or are the sleet models correct?
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The HRRR is pretty to look at, but it's counting on colder thermals keeping the sleet farther south. Other models are easily surging sleet up through east-central Iowa. I'm not going to bet against the warm air aloft. 4-8" seems reasonable for Cedar Rapids. The Friday wave is trending back nw again, but, coming from the gulf, it's too darn warm.
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Euro continues to be quite a bit stronger and nw with wave 2. It doesn't really reach the confluence area until the lakes.
