hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Euro ticked a hair south again with wave 1. It's pretty much in the middle of the guidance.
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Yeah, as a couple other models fade back southeast, the UK keeps inching nw.
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UK has come in a bit south with wave 1. It was already one of the south models. If you live in southern Iowa, the Canadian and UK say you'll get dumped on while the other models say you'll get mix/rain or even a dry slot.
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The Canadian has shifted well southeast with the Friday system and falls apart when it crosses the Ohio river.
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The NAM still wants to lift the sleet up through Cedar Rapids Tuesday evening... a bit more aggressive than the HRRR.
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00z HRRR at 48 hrs
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Wow, I had no idea it got that warm over by the river. We were held to the low 30s by the snow. I picked up 0.9" of snow, about what was expected and a nice hors d'oeuvres ahead of the bigger snow this week.
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FWIW, the 18z parallel GFS just shifted back eastward(now veers east of Iowa), the first run of any model that has done that.
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All the models are occluding/shearing the low at some point, but differ on when. The opGFS does it before reaching Iowa, the Euro after.
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It's not often we see a winter low track from the nw gulf to Quincy.
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Euro showing a lot of icing north of the low.
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Except the potential problem with wave 2, even over here, is the warm air aloft.
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The UK is now showing a big nw shift with wave 2. The UK continues to be farther south with the first wave as well, so here's the total.
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Parallel GFS is a bit farther west than the op GFS and pulls warm air aloft back into Iowa.
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The west trend with the second wave continues unabated. The 06z Euro and parallel GFS are even west of me now.
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This thing is going to change so much over the next few days. My area could easily get 10 inches or nothing.
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The Euro has now joined the other models, showing the northern wave clearing out and leaving the southern wave behind. The southern wave then cuts north and wraps up.
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We continue to see significant changes from run to run with the southern energy. The trend is certainly to slow it and dig it farther south.
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The initial wave of snow appears to be aimed at northern Iowa, with just a bit here followed by mix and rain.
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The models are certainly seeing the possibility of a robust southern wave cutting north somewhere.
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Eastern Ohio Valley again?
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This Euro run has secondary wave development, but it doesn't really wrap up until it's exiting into Canada.
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Hmm.... just a bit of a difference. The UK is fast with the northern wave and pretty much just sweeps it through the region with no big low. The Euro dives a northern bowling ball south into the trough and wraps up a big storm (takes a northern track). UK
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The front-end snow is vanishing for southeast Iowa and points east.
