hawkeye_wx

The steering current collapses as the storm reaches the sw Atlantic, so it is just slowly meandering at this point.

This is my fourth consecutive dud event. I only received 0.11". Since August 8th, I've only received 0.60".

Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeastward escape.

Well, I guess I have to take that back. After 180 hours a very strong ridge pops over sw/sc Canada, and in response a trough forms over se Canada. That trough is far away from the cyclone, but it weakens the west-Atlantic ridge so the storm is slowing and turning nw.

At 180 hours it's booking wnw toward the Bahamas and there is nothing but strong ridging across the US and into the western Atlantic. It has nowhere to go but west.

Like the GFS, the Euro also shows the 500 mb energy getting stretched apart by the developing upper low to the north. However, while the GFS has a bunch more troughiness beyond that, the Euro builds an upper ridge, so the system is able to reorganize and head wnw into a favorable environment.

The GFS shows some solid 500 mb vorticity where the system is now, but over the next 5+ days it shows a bunch of mid-Atlantic troughiness continually trying to yank it north and pull it apart.

Meanwhile, this is the third consecutive dud rain event for my yard. I got 0.09". We did well during the first week of August, but I've received only 0.49" total since then. I'm sitting at 2.99" for the month.

We missed out on any good rain again. Models teased half to one inch for days, but every good cell either went around me or crapped out before arriving. I only got 0.39".

This one isn't going to make it. It showed promise early yesterday, but the convection poofed and it never really came close to closing off a defined circulation. It's a weak mess this morning and there is little time left over water.

Nope, this is not the wind field of a TD or TS. It has more work to do.

It is currently partly sunny and 68º here at 1pm. Saturday is probably the last chance to hit 90º this month.

It was a delightful day. We were in the low 70s through mid afternoon and only maxed out at 76º when the clouds cleared late. I got the lawn mowed as it's getting rather lush and thick in spots.

The Freeport area is getting clobbered again this morning. 24 hours ago they got 4-8 inches of rain. This morning the same stations are getting another 3-5". Meanwhile, much of southern Iowa has received less than an inch over the last 30 days.

0.54" in my yard. Just barely to the north and east is a band of 2-5".

Cedar Rapids' dewpoint just reached 80º. The heat index is 111º. I hope we can cash this soup in for some good rain.

Dubuque and QC have officially hit a dewpoint of 80º. It's a sauna out there, but the high cloud spillage has certainly helped keep it bearable.

A severe-warned storm just moved through Cedar Rapids. I estimate the wind maxed at about 50 mph here.

Yeah, I was pretty shocked as well. All I could think is the forecast is computer generated and they didn't bother human-tweaking it. Over several days the forecast went from 105 to 101 to 99 to 96 to low 90s, and now upper 80s.

The locals and NWS should just stop forecasting anything above low 90s for us at this point. Today's forecast was mid 90s, but we aren't even getting out of the 80s. Wednesday has been wildly over-forecasted for a week. The NWS actually had 105º in my forecast for Wednesday late last week. That is a dust bowl temp, nearly impossible to achieve today. It now appears we'll be lucky to get out of the 80s again Wednesday. I see the NWS has upper 90s in the forecast, yet again, for Saturday. Low 90s is much more likely.

For the second straight night a strong storm moved through Cedar Rapids. This time I got a bit of small hail and a quick 0.46" of rain. Much of eastern Iowa got nothing both nights, but I lucked out and got hit twice.

I was one of the lucky ones tonight. Much of the area received nothing, but a cluster of strong storms moved through Cedar Rapids. I got 1" of rain and a station only a mile south got 2". It lasted quite a while and had constant lightning, but pretty quiet thunder. Right after the back edge moved through I went outside just to check the gauge, but I was treated to one of the most amazing lightning displays I've ever seen, directly above.

This morning's Euro removed ALL 90s from my forecast through ten days. There are also now four rain chances over the next week with multiple fronts moving through. 100º is certainly out of the picture Wednesday because of an earlier frontal passage.

I'd really love more storms and heavy rain, but the weather has been pretty great overall. Any surges of heat and humidity have been brief.

Unlike you, I love the lack of 90s. 80s during the day and 60s at night is perfect for me.