hawkeye_wx

It appears the Rockford area is the bullseye... already 2-3" with another 2+" on the way.

I received 0.73" overnight. I was hoping for 1+", but the system slid to the east a bit too much. Much of the rain total was from long-duration light to very light rain, so it certainly wasn't exciting.

The new UK shifted the good rain east of my area, but the GFS, GDPS, and Euro are solid with 1+". I'd have loved the 3-4", but it's just not our year for that. 12z Euro

Yeah, that pocket of dry air never allowed the core to get that real pretty look we like to see. It did well to drop to about 960 mb.

Models have trended toward a farther north track of the upper low this weekend, so the rain bullseye has been moved to Wisconsin.

Recon just measured 107 kt at flight level east of the center. The convective ring around the center is really beginning to come together now.

New dropsonde found 971 mb. The shear is gradually diminishing as the upper low to the west drifts south and the hurricane lifts north. Outflow is really fanning out.

Latest dropsonde pressure is 976 mb.

Models have converged on a similar scenario this weekend into next week. It appears there will be widespread 1-3" of rain under the deformation zone with some areas receiving 4-6". Every model shows this now. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of a major screw zone. This morning's Euro does exactly that for southeast Iowa. The Euro is very strong and stalls the low right over me or just west. Southeast Iowa gets major dry-slotted while a ton of rain falls to the nw. The UK, on the other hand, has eastern Iowa near the western edge of the heavy stuff. The Canadian has 1-3" from Nebraska through Michigan. An average of the current models would be fine, but that Euro scares me.

Satellite presentation is not pretty, but the pressure has dropped to 978 mb.

Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off. Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks. The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard.

It has become incredibly boring. Lawns are browning again and there is little to no rain in sight. This year we don't even get any tropical action to distract from our local boredom.

It was probably a TD this morning (It would have been if it was anywhere near the US), but it looks like crap this afternoon. Convection has waned and is being blown off to the east by shear.

Models are in pretty good agreement that Thursday may be the day this system gets going, once the upper low to its north lifts out. The weather pattern over North America, with ridging over the central/western US and troughing over the east and into the western Atlantic, does not appear favorable for any hurricane landfall.

The steering current collapses as the storm reaches the sw Atlantic, so it is just slowly meandering at this point.

This is my fourth consecutive dud event. I only received 0.11". Since August 8th, I've only received 0.60".

Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeastward escape.

Well, I guess I have to take that back. After 180 hours a very strong ridge pops over sw/sc Canada, and in response a trough forms over se Canada. That trough is far away from the cyclone, but it weakens the west-Atlantic ridge so the storm is slowing and turning nw.

At 180 hours it's booking wnw toward the Bahamas and there is nothing but strong ridging across the US and into the western Atlantic. It has nowhere to go but west.

Like the GFS, the Euro also shows the 500 mb energy getting stretched apart by the developing upper low to the north. However, while the GFS has a bunch more troughiness beyond that, the Euro builds an upper ridge, so the system is able to reorganize and head wnw into a favorable environment.

The GFS shows some solid 500 mb vorticity where the system is now, but over the next 5+ days it shows a bunch of mid-Atlantic troughiness continually trying to yank it north and pull it apart.

Meanwhile, this is the third consecutive dud rain event for my yard. I got 0.09". We did well during the first week of August, but I've received only 0.49" total since then. I'm sitting at 2.99" for the month.

We missed out on any good rain again. Models teased half to one inch for days, but every good cell either went around me or crapped out before arriving. I only got 0.39".

This one isn't going to make it. It showed promise early yesterday, but the convection poofed and it never really came close to closing off a defined circulation. It's a weak mess this morning and there is little time left over water.

Nope, this is not the wind field of a TD or TS. It has more work to do.