hawkeye_wx

It's out there pretty far, but the latest op Euro, GFS, and GDPS (Canadian) all show a nearly identical Colorado low producing good snow across IA/WI/IL late next weekend.

For the second consecutive day, a stratus deck advecting in from the east killed our temp, holding us in the mid 30s. The east wind off the lakes can be a real downer in winter and spring.

We knew there would be a decent break in the pattern, including a thaw. However, there is absolutely nothing in sight for the north-central US through the next ten days, maybe even mid February. At least we get mild air over the near term. After that it looks like we turn colder but remain dry.

I picked up 0.57" of rain over the last 24 hours. My January total is up to 3.25"... very wet. My beautiful, deep snowpack is now very grungy and about 2/3 gone. Grass is starting to show in a few spots. Grass doesn't get greener than this in late January. It barely froze through early January (the soil was soft when the snow hit), and then the deep snow insulated it during the extreme cold.

Even at only 35º, our snow is wasting no time getting the melt started. The driveways and sidewalks are now clean, there is a lot of dripping, and the deep snow in the backyard has really softened up.

We got a bit of freezing rain this morning, but the snow part is a dud. It briefly switched to snow and dusted the pavement, but then switched back to light rain. We were counting on dynamic cooling, but the precip is too weak.

Models are generally trending toward a quick hit of slop around here Tuesday morning, perhaps in the 1-3" range.

I finished with 1.8". The best snow passed south. Des Moines got another 4".

Models continue to trend colder early next week.

00z Euro

My snow board maxed out at 3.5" yesterday and was down to 2.5" this morning, but I'm going with 5" for my storm total. Several reports from the Cedar Rapids area are in the 6-8" range. The 2.5" of "dry" snow on my board this morning had 0.43" liquid in it, for a 6 to 1 ratio. I always get a terrible ratio when there is wind, even if the snow is bone dry.

Several hours of solid snow late morning through afternoon added <1" to my snow board, so my board is officially useless. I'll just have to go with whatever the other Cedar Rapids area spotters report.

This storm has been a snow dud for a large chunk of east-central Iowa. Models really struggled with the placement of the heavy band. A couple days ago it was expected to be sw through northern Iowa, but instead it tracked through southern Iowa and turned north around the Quad Cites. We didn't get much from the WAA band overnight and accumulation from the defo zone has been iffy today. A couple hours ago I only measured 3.3" and I probably still have <4". The HRRR continues to show snow over us through late evening, but radar shows a big dry hole forming and moving into Cedar Rapids, so we may not get much more snow. Oh well. We got the brunt of the early week storm and now we get the other end of that. That's life. Update: There is a new 6" report from a few miles north of me. It's so frustrating watching everyone around me report significantly higher totals when there is wind. Where are these people measuring?!? I swear, we could get two feet of snow and my snow board will have 6" on it.

Unfortunately, the snow crapped out as it headed north overnight. Southern Iowa got a nice 4-6", but only about 1.5" here. Our totals have come down quite a bit. I'm just hoping for a few more inches at this point.

The Euro (including the EPS) and both NAMs have suddenly dropped a nasty dry hole over my area and cratered the snow total for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Other models are down as well. Tonight's surge of heavy WAA snow is veering more east into northern Illinois, so it's off to a shaky start. Instead of 8-12", latest guidance suggests maybe 3-6".

The NAMs actually dried out Iowa.

The Euro is trending much wetter across eastern Iowa. The 06z run had a big dry pocket over my area. The 12z run got rid of that pocket. Now the 18z has us in a wet area.

The GFS appears way overdone for southern Iowa.

EPS

I finished with 2.7" last night. 3-4" fell just northeast of me. Models had it nailed pretty good.

I just got 1 inch of snow in 15 minutes. It is probably the heaviest snow I've ever seen.

It is ripping hard here, the heaviest snow of the season. The comma head of this potent little disturbance is about to go over me with very intense snow.

The last two weeks have been extremely cloudy. I remember only a few brief peaks of sun over that period.

Tonight's sneaky little wave has been improving for my area. The 12z HRRR now has a strip of 3-4" from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque.

My final measurement is 11.0", so I've still never measured a foot. Without the blowing and drifting later in the storm, I probably would have. All the spotters in and around Cedar Rapids who are reporting 12-15" must have more favorable locations to measure. Even with a 2-stage blower, cleaning this stuff was a long workout. It's the most wet snow I've ever received. Models really blew it when they shifted the heaviest snow band southeast yesterday.