hawkeye_wx

Last night's line of storms held together better than I expected. I got a nice storm out of it, with rain that totaled 0.58". My final July rain total is 8.66".

Tonight's big event for my area has kinda been ruined by all the recent action to the southwest. All we have this evening is an outflow-dominated, bubbly line moving through central Iowa. There probably won't be much left when it gets here later.

The MCS train has not budged from its track through Ottumwa the last few days. Ottumwa has received 6-7" of rain.

As expected, I only got some light anvil rain like Cyclone... about 0.15". The MCS track has been locked in for the last few days. Ottumwa had been the driest spot in Iowa, getting missed repeatedly over the last couple months, but they've been hit by at least five MCSs this week that have dropped several inches of rain.

The morning MCS activity across the sw half of Iowa likely ended any chance of storms here until Wednesday night.

I finished last night with 1.01". It was heavier just south of me where the storms trained. My July total is up to 7.97", which makes this my wettest July since I began keeping records in 2007. This is just one of those months in which we are maxing out every event. We aren't done, either. There may be more MCS activity Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

One more batch of bubbly showers and storms this morning boosted my rain total to 2.05". My July total is 6.96". This is our wettest July since 2008 and the first wet July since 2017. The last several have been well below average.

We've had small cells pop up for the last few days. The last two days I only got a tenth or so from each, but we got lucky early this morning when a potent cell blew up over Cedar Rapids. We got vivid lightning, some wind, and very heavy rain that totaled 1.74". My July total is 6.65".

I got 2.56" of rain (still raining lightly), the most from a single storm in about ten years I think. Unfortunately, the wind blew it against the house for an hour, so it ran down the foundation and into the basement.

97 mph gust reported just west of Dubuque.

It is real nasty here. Torrential rain, wind sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 60 mph for the last 10+ minutes.... easily our worst storm since the derecho.

Severe wind has now hit Cedar Rapids. My trees just held on during some big gusts.

Well, the sw tail of the storm is building back to the wsw, so I'm getting hit good now. There have been a bunch of close lightning strikes, something we don't often see from late-night MCSs. One strike knocked my power out for a second. The sirens are going off.

I just went out and put supports on a bunch of plants, getting drenched in the process (81º dew). I come inside and the radar shows this first severe line is going to miss north.

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely later this afternoon for portions of Iowa into Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin in anticipation of convective initiation, forecast to occur between 19-21Z. Thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale quickly into a bowing line, which will be capable of 80+ MPH winds, though 1.00+ inch hail and embedded tornadoes are also possible. DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough evident in both water vapor channel satellite imagery and RAP analyses is progressing eastward across southwest Minnesota. This shortwave is expected to provide additional ascent for convective initiation between 19-21Z over what is already a moist and unstable airmass, with widespread areas of MLCAPE > 3500 J/kg. This convective initiation is expected to occur anywhere from southern Minnesota, along the existing band of cloudiness, to central Iowa, where MLCINH has already eroded. Forecast profiles in north-central Iowa around the time of convective initiation show some slight curvature of the hodograph, resulting in modest 0-3km SRH of around 120 m^2/s^2. This will support the potential for tornadoes with any storms that remain isolated/discrete, but the overall expectation is for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. The primary concern this evening is for damaging straight-line winds in excess of 80 MPH associated with this MCS, in addition to 1.00+ inch hail. Further east into Illinois, forecast hodographs show more favorable curvature and streamwise vorticity along and south of the surface boundary. Given the environment and expected storm mode, embedded QLCS tornadoes appear possible.

The morning storms over southern Minnesota pushed a boundary down into Iowa. The boundary stalled wnw-ese through the Cedar Rapids area. 80º dews are piling up along the boundary this afternoon and there is a fair amount of agitation on satellite.

For my area, it will depend on how soon the storms can fire. The latest HRRR doesn't show much firing until after it is east and south of Cedar Rapids.

0.40" here overnight.

984 mb

Beryl's center actually moved east of north between the last two recon passes. The pressure, once again, has not changed.

There have been several center dropsondes through the afternoon and evening, but the one at 18:49z was 989.

The surface pressure is the same as it was six hours ago. The radar presentation continues to look pretty disheveled. As has been the case all day, a pocket of modest convection will pop up within the core, but as it rotates around, it dries up.... rinse, repeat.

The upper level outflow is beautiful. If Beryl had a tight and moist inner core, it would be cranking.

The process of mixing the dry air out of Beryl's inner core has been painfully slow.