Met1985

Alright fellas here are some pics from Crabtree in Haywood. They had a few inches.

Snowing in parts of Haywood currently. Temps are dropping especially above 3000 feet.

Well this morning's runs go like this. The GFS is the least impressive with regards to snow accumulations. It has a few inches right along the boarder counties and that's it, the FV3 goes nuts for snow accumulations. It has some places getting a foot over the SW mountains and hammers a good portion of the boarder counties with decent snowfall amounts. The NAM has switched to have the majority of the heavy snow up near Roan mountain and right along the boarder and not much for the SW mountains... This is a very unique situation we have with the low so far south and not having a good air mass to work with behind it. Also it will be very windy so that is a factor and this will very much be an elevation defendant snow I think for the most part. So we will see how things go. I know one thing it is absolutely hammering the rain this morning.

Yeah the 00z NAM looked impressive for sure. We will have to see how things turn out as this is very moisture latend but we really need the cold air to rush in here to get a sizable snow.

Absolutely Grit! It was about the best run of the season probably. I'm still very hesitant on biting on this pattern change currently. Let's get into the first of January and see how the models look then.

Psuhoffman posted the Euro weeklies in the MA forum if anyone is interested.

Yeah I see that. The changeover would have to be fast and furious for that to happen. Will be interesting to see if it is onto something or it's off its rocket. The old GFS has some impressive totals but is not as uniform with snow accumulations as the NAM is... Will be interesting to see who wins out.

With those winds and the snow we could see whiteout conditions in the favored areas.

Here we go!!!!! SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FT... .As a low pressure system tracks northeast of the area, northwesterly flow will bring in cold air and lingering moisture to the Southern Appalachians on Friday. Precipitation will start out as all rain Friday morning, then snow levels will start to drop during the afternoon hours to the valley floors by early Friday evening. Snow showers will gradually taper off early Saturday morning. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-210445- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0020.181221T1700Z-181222T1700Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, and Tuckasegee 343 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 inches possible in the highest elevations of the Smokies. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 ft near the Tennessee border in western North Carolina. * WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.

I am very confident that we will at least see some sort of advisory or even maybe a watch coming soon to the boarder counties because of what had been issued for the TN side of the mountains... Accumulating Snow Across the Higher Elevations Of The East Tennessee Mountains Friday And Friday Night... .Rain will continue tonight into Friday, but colder air moving in on Friday will gradually change the rain to snow across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Snow showers will then linger in these areas Friday night. Significant snow accumulations can be expected, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet. TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-210430- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0018.181221T1500Z-181222T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Mountain City, Cosby, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Roan Mountain, Cades Cove, Gatlinburg, and Coker Creek 319 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 6 inches expected at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts will be possible across the highest elevations. * WHERE...Higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. * WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

I'm not sure about the Euro snow maps short term but the 18z NAM has beefed up totals along the boarder again... So I think this has merit to watch closely especially this coming in overnight.

Oh yeah I hear yeah. Yeah its pouring the rain here also. Nice cool rainy day.

Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days.

For our snow chances coming up the 6z NAM does not look as impressive because it delays the cold coming in so the totals are cut back a bit. The 6z GFS looks pretty good from what it had been showing. Looks like a couple of slushy inches currently with the highest accumulation near Roan mountain and right along the boarder in the SW mountains.

Although tonight's NAM looks much juicier than the GFS did at 18z .

Man the weenies are running wild in here lol. It still looks like we may see some snow from Friday night into Saturday morning but it does not look like much currently.

This is a wrong assumption. We have had several PV splits that stay on the other side of the globe. This is always a worry when dealing with the PV.

I absolutely agree. Perfect weather currently. Cold nights and average daytime highs.

The 18z GFS is a bit juicier this run for some snow especially across the southern mountains. Still a ways out though but so far so good.

What site do you use for the FV3?

Also I would take note that this pattern is not a bad one to be in currently. I have seen it a lot warmer than this and the 7 day forecast looks really good actually. We are tracking some snow and temps look to be very seasonal especially going into the weekend. So really all in all not bad at all. I have enjoyed the warm up a bit and its nice to see the sun shining.

This morning's GFS continues to advertise a strong chance of snow across the mountains towards the end of the week. This flow is going to be a bit different though. With the low so deep and south of us the cold aid actually will wrap around from the SW... This means the southern mountains will change to snow before anyone else. We will eventually get a NW flow but that will not happen until the Low pulls east of us. A pretty neat setup really. I think this is mostly confined to the boarder counties but it is still early.

Interesting. No wind here at all. A pretty cold morning also with a current temp of 28 degrees.

Yeah it looks like we will see a rain to snow situation at the end of the week especially across the higher elevations. We dont have a strong cold source to pull from so things will be from top to bottom across the mountains.

Looks like this weekend is just going to be nasty all the way around. A cold rain with some wind and some flooding. Even here they are calling for a bit of rain/snow Saturday night into Sunday.