Gravity Wave

I know it's still fantasy range, but the fact that every GFS run within range has had a major storm in the East for the New Years period is encouraging. 18z is a bomb. Euro and CMC will start coming into range on Friday.

12z GFS retains the big New Years storm, this time it shows up as a GLC.

Everything is looking good from New Years on, no need for any more premature December panic.

Moderate snow in Chelsea, my deck has a slushy coating.

This is interesting from JB on Twitter. Even as we've shifted between AN and BN patterns this year, the overarching pattern of low maximas and high minimas has remained. This summer we had merely slightly above average highs despite record high lows, and since the ridge from hell died in mid-October we've been seeing impressively low highs with relatively average lows.

The stone age of weather forecasting for me was the 7 day forecast on the weather channel. If the models were showing a storm they'd just hint at it until a couple days out. Even once I started looking online for weather info in the mid 00's, the maps that were available then were those low res QPF maps that showed the blue 0 degree 850 line, which was used as a proxy for ground temps. The clown maps were horrible back then as well, the GFS in particular had one with completely random colors.

December has been a dead month for big storms for a while. As long as the El Nino pattern sets up by the end of the month we'll have our chances.

Got it, I figured my memory was a bit foggy. No one on the forums I read then focused much on the vort or the 500mb maps in general, which is pretty funny in retrospect.

I remember the December 19-20 2009 storm, every model was consistently suppressing it up. DC was on the fringe and no one north of there was going to see anything significant. This was after 3 straight garbage winters for the MA so hope was low to begin with. Then the 18z NAM on the 17th showed a full fledged I-95 blizzard (it ended up being too generous with the northern extent of the heavy snow, much to my disappointment in Allentown) and every other model flipped on their next runs. It's up there with BDB as the most remarkable short term shift I've experienced for a major winter storm. To be clear, I was too young to understand the 500mb setup for that storm and I'm not making any predictions.

Double barrel low feature also showing up on Para GFS.

13/14 and 14/15 had very impressive cold from January on, but December was unremarkable, at least in Ithaca.

People in PA are furious at PennDOT as well. The Lehigh Valley in particular was a disaster area, which is inexcusable since the forecasts there always called for mostly ice and snow. https://www.mcall.com/news/weather/mc-nws-winter-weather-advisory-lehigh-valley-snow-20181115-story.html

The wind is howling right now.

What a commuting mess. I've never been happier to live in Manhattan than tonight. Looks like about 3" on my roof in Chelsea, although the rain and compaction has definitely cut down on visible accumulations. My parents reported 6" in Allentown a few hours ago, not surprised to see over 7" at the Airport outside the UHI.

Lightening up now but heavy returns are surging NE. Could get another inch or two before the changeover.

Rockefeller Plaza is totally covered in Midtown. Won't be back in Chelsea for a couple more hours but I'll be interested to measure on the wood roof deck.

Road closures popping up all over the place. I-78 W and I-476 S closed in PA.

RGEM has a historical warm bias, GFS is just trash with thermal profiles.

30-35 dbz echoes moving in for everyone right now.

Half mile visibility here.

Reports of 3-4" and heavy snow all around Philly in the other subforum. Mix line is moving north though.

Visibility down to around a mile in Midtown with moderate to verging on heavy snow.

Steady snow now, visibility noticeably falling.

First flakes drifting down in Midtown. Looks to be a quick ramp up.

WSW for immediate N and W suburbs. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-160900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.181115T1800Z-181116T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0009.181115T1800Z-181116T0900Z/ Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- Including the cities of West Milford, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes, Wanaque, Bloomingdale, Fair Lawn, Paramus, Ridgewood, Elmwood Park, Wyckoff, Ramsey, Oakland, Putnam Valley, Lake Carmel, Mahopac, Carmel, Putnam Lake, New City, Spring Valley, Nanuet, Pearl River, Monsey, Stony Point, Suffern, Ossining, Peekskill, Jefferson Valley, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry, Mount Kisco, and North Tarrytown 1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and then mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic and Western Bergen Counties. In New York, Putnam, Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.