Gravity Wave

This is also going to help fill in that long evening model hole between the 18z GFS/RGEM at 4:30/5:00 and 00z NAM at 9:30/10:00 (I'm ignoring the 21z SREFs in that because LOL).

Really hope this is right.

The line is starting to look better as it enters more unstable air. Lapse rates aren't ideal but most others indices look at least decent.

My favorite part of the summer was when the atmosphere spontaneously combusted with non-forecasted tropical thunderstorms.

There's always something missing in this region when it comes to big severe outbreaks, usually either shear or lapse rates. Most of the best storms I can remember, whether here or in Allentown, have come on days which weren't supposed to have significant outbreaks. The 3km NAM has some discrete cells popping front of the squall line Wednesday evening, but under its current timing the front would come through here during the early morning hours of Thursday, which could limit the severe potential.

I nominate Hurricane Lili for "Most Overhyped."

Yeah. Call me no fun but I think that professional agencies should refrain from silly, inane stuff like that.

Could Florence's SW drift combined with the NE flow of the Gulf Stream mitigate the impacts of upwelling in this scenario?

Still socked in with low clouds in Midtown, although the sky is getting lighter. I'm not going to complain if the sun stays away with these high dews.

GFS caves completely. Is the Euro back to being the King?

My reaction when I saw the GFS cave to the Euro:

I can see NYC's snow drought had a serious psychological impact on those who experienced it. I never went through anything quite that bad but growing up in Allentown we got fringed by almost every major snowstorm of the 2000s (Jan 2005, Feb 2006, Feb 2007, December 2009, Feb 4-6 2010, with PDII being the one exception) before February 10, 2010 broke the curse with 18 inches of snow in 8 hours during my last winter there. Since then Allentown's had 3 18+ storms and I missed all of them, including 30" with the Blizzard of 2016 that hit 24 hours after I left to go back up to school.

Yeah this threat is all but dead for our area unless the WAR suddenly gets weaker for next week, which seems unlikely.

Definitely starting to feel better about my flight out of LGA Friday morning. UKIE and GGEM have it going into Savannah now LOL.

Hearing about heatwaves from way back then makes me wonder how anyone could bear living here without AC.

Yeah, i think people are being a little cavalier in saying it won't be more than a 1 by the time it gets up to the Delmarva (assuming no significant land interaction over NC, of course). E: Another issue if it really hugs the coast and stalls is that upwelling impacts could be mitigated by the relative shallowness of the continental shelf.

Storms beginning to pop in NWNJ.

Right now it's GGEM, Euro, and UKIE vs GFS, although the Euro brings an organized Florence up north after NC landfall while the GGEM has it stalling and dying out down there.

Yikes.

Half the buildings in this city need to be torn down anyway, the dewsaster is a good excuse to speed things up.

Except Atlanta actually has air conditioning in more than 20% of the buildings.

Really? I've always seen NY, NJ, PA, DE and MD as the Mid-Atlantic with VA, WV and NC thrown in as well depending on the source.

You can really tell which locations got helped out by the abnormally warm SSTs.

On the plus side GFS says this weekend is gorgeous and next week looks like low-mid 80s with low dews, which will probably seem refreshing after this hell.

A little tropical excitement would somewhat make up for the general awfulness of the weather this summer and hopefully change the pattern in time for fall.