Gravity Wave

WSW up for NWNJ. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1221 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 NJZ007-008-PAZ062-160530- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.181115T1721Z-181116T1400Z/ Warren-Morris-Northampton- Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem, and Easton 1221 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In Pennsylvania, Northampton county. * WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Yup, City only flips to rain around 9:30 after the heavy precip is over.

IDK if I'd have the Bronx and Brooklyn in the same zone with this storm but looks good otherwise.

That winter was trash everywhere. I was in Ithaca and the biggest storm was 6" of concrete in late April. That February was also the warmest I ever experienced prior to this year's.

KNYC down to 37 from high of 39, DP of 15. Already 34 at HPN. Expecting an icy inch or so.

Sun angle was overrated with those March storms last year. The last one (which had the worst sun angle) was easily the best producer for the city.

The Snow depth and Ferrier maps for the NAM seem far more accurate; general 1-3" NW of 95 with 3-6 in higher elevations of central PA. E: The 12k snow depth maps look much better for PA and NNJ, not really sure why other than it being slightly more generous with QPF and a smidge cooler.

The trend this summer was for models to underestimate the long range warmth. It would be nice if we could get the inverse for this winter.

Pouring in Midtown.

It's trash. I've stopped looking at it. It was calling for a major cooldown in September and completely missed the cold start to this month. The fantasy range GFS is considerably more accurate.

From the analogs posted in response to this, I assume this is good news for those of us who want a snowy winter? In other news the ECM, CMC and GFS are in strong agreement through 240 hours about the cold outbreak. GFS is the coldest for the NE, which is a little surprising.

It's not like the CFS has been great either. I'm not particularly inclined to trust any temperature predictions beyond 10 days.

KDIX radar showing a stationary band of rain on the NJ coast up through the city. Seems as though it extends quite a bit further north.

Where were these lapse rates this summer? We all saw what happened in PA when they showed up there.

Still pretty significant timing differences between the models. NAM and CMC wrap up the steady precip by noon Saturday, GFS keeps it going through the early evening.

OP GFS still not showing any signs of a sustained warmup at any point in its run, but GEFS looks similar to the EPS although surface temps only look to be marginally above average.

12z GFS really tones down the November warmup. The ridge is much flatter. Still past 240 hours though, which is the point where GFS temp forecasts seem to become more accurate and consistent run to run. E: Also worth noting that the GEFS continues to show only a minor moderation of temps during the first week of November.

I was in Ithaca in 2011 and we got nothing from that system. There was a very sharp cutoff NW of I-88.

43 at the Park at midnight. Good shot at sub-40.

October 2011 had a big snowstorm just N/W of I-95. I remember my Dad in Allentown laughing at me when I told him to expect 6-10 inches. He ended up having to shovel 7-8 inches of concrete the next morning.

3k NAM, 12k NAM and HRRR have the city making it into the 30s.

I honestly haven't been very impressed with the CFS weeklies, especially beyond week 2. Consistently underestimated the heat this summer, and then underestimated/didn't even show this cooldown.

12Z 3k has a decent looking squall line coming through just before midnight.

Yes, the HMON and especially HWRF performed very well on Michael. HWRF was honking the RI up to landfall horn the whole time, although it still ended up 15mb too weak.

As exciting as the end of the Dewsaster is, it's kind of sad that we're likely going to experience a fall with virtually no beautiful sunny 70-some degree days. We're going straight from 70s/80s and muggy/cloudy to 50s/60s and dry.