Gravity Wave

Looks like .5" of QPF for the area. Good sign considering the ensembles are usually too dry this far out.

Yeah, the storm comes further north but the faster vort means less phasing and a weaker storm.

Changes at H5 through 96. Let's see... Continuing at 108. The vort is diving at the same time but it's north and east of at 12z. Might allow the storm to come north. Clearly N on the surface.

It's consistently been in the GFS camp, albeit at the extreme end of its run. Interestingly, the NAM also appears to be much faster with the digging shortwave over Ontario; the most recent GFS runs have had it diving south on Sunday, but the NAM is bringing it down on Saturday. vs I'm not sure what that would mean for the storm though, and again this is the long range NAM.

Thanks for the link.

Speaking of which, why is the 12z UKIE not out yet?

Agreed. But a late north trend like we've seen so often could put the coast into moderate precip.

The storm is considerably more organized compared to the 0z, but it's still south through 120.

Yup, a lot of the members are tucked into the coast at 0z Monday. Also most members have the low moving NE rather than due east as at 6z.

PA had its third largest tornado outbreak in history in October. Had that setup occurred in the spring or summer it could have been a May 31 1998 redux. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-May_1998_tornado_outbreak_and_derecho#May_31_New_York_and_Pennsylvania_tornadoes

12z CMC largely holds serve, although the outflow on the NW side of the low continues to be oddly constricted.

Upper levels different again on 12z GFS through 102. E: This allowed the storm to come further north at 126, brushing us with snow. Unfortunately H5 evolution is closer to the 6z run overall in evolution than the 12z.

Positive trends so far tonight, as the confluence is setting up further north on the models. GFS in particular showing the potential for quite an overrunning event. Would love to get the Euro or Ukie on board. As for the GFS accuracy, I don't think it's wise to trash it as long as there support from other models (CMC, JMA).

The confluence is what needs to change. If that backs off then it's game on. People who know more about teleconnections than me can explain how likely that is.

New GFS looked like frame by frame rerun of the December snowstorm through 138, but at 144-150 it's trying to pull the storm up the coast. Heaviest banding still slides off the coast.

Euro is far from infallible, but it's hard to get too invested in this without it being at least close to something.

I hope that the Para will come out faster once it's the main GFS model. It's been stuck on 102 for 45 minutes.

Wow, the CMC is great too, 990 low just inside BM. Doesn't throw much precip back to us but with that track that shouldn't be a problem.

I remember that. I was mostly hanging out in the Upstate NY forum then since I was in Ithaca but I lurked here when it looked like this would become an HECS. I remember a 0z NAM run 36 hours out or so that gave most of NNJ and the LHV 40"+. Easily the worst bust I've seen since I didn't follow the weather closely in March 2001 (although I do remember watching Local on the 8's and having my totals in Allentown slashed throughout that Sunday before the storm). The worst bust I ever experienced personally was January 2014 in Ithaca. It was a rare major snyoptic storm in upstate NY, and the Finger Lakes were, for once, the jackpot zone in all of the models. 16-20", and from how the storm was overperforming in the midwest it seemed like 2 feet was within reach. Every model was on board the night before, with the exception of the old RAP (I think) which had the heaviest snow sliding south, although it was still giving me 8-10". I went to bed expecting to wake up to heavy snow and no classes. When I woke up I heard a car passing on the road outside, and it sounded like it was driving through slush rather than compacted snow as you would expect in a big storm. Sure enough, when I looked outside we had 2 inches of pixie dust and a slushy coating on all the roads, with light snow falling. As it turned out, the RAP was right about the track, and a deathband had set up over an Oneonta-Binghamton-Elmira axis that ended up dropping 24-30" along most of the I-88 corridor. The subsidence from that band killed us and Ithaca ended up with 6", which was pretty much the lowest amount anyone in Upstate got from that storm (areas to the west cashed in more since the deathband hadn't set up yet and there was less subsidence, and areas to the north got lake enhancement and were north of the worst subsidence). Probably my worst weather memory.

CMC showing a big storm Sunday into Monday. Tracks straight north from Hatteras to EPA so it's all rain, but it's deeper and further east than 12Z. GFS and GEFS look about the same as their earlier runs. FV3 is now also showing a storm in that timeframe, although it's disorganized and off the coast.

Well, it's nice to finally have a potential threat to track, at least. Euro gives us some nice cold air to work with before the storm as well.

That winter was epic for the central MA and aggravating for everyone north of the PA turnpike. Almost everyone in the northern MA ended up getting one big hit but it was hard not to be disappointed with all of the close calls and sharp cutoffs.

Last year proved you can get accumulating snow down to the coast in March as long as you have sufficient snowfall rates and decent temps. The issue for NYC with last March's storms is that it was either a degree or two too warm, or the heaviest rates set up just east of the city. Still got a decent storm out of the last one.

Firehose definitely looks to be setting up over Suffolk and Western CT. Pretty significant bust by the short range models given this is happening about 75 miles east of 12Z yesterday. If this were a winter storm we'd all be freaking out. Although the city looks to finish right around 2", which can't be called a bust.