Gravity Wave

Euro seems to be backing off the warmup it's been forecasting for next weekend. GFS and CMC have a moderation of the below normal temps for that period followed by a new trough.

It was only 7 years ago that areas just n&W of I-95 in the MA had a nice snowstorm in the last week of October. It's definitely possible with the unseasonably cold air being forecast.

36 hours until summer is finally over.

LR GFS not showing anything like the current warm, muggy conditions for the duration of the run. Euro brings them back (kind of) for Tuesday but they get shunted away quickly for the remainder of the run.

I don't see the long range heat that people are talking about. GFS, which has a warm bias, has some above average temps (with low dews) after 300 hours. Hard to take it seriously >10 days out with temps.

12z GFS showing a Friday cooldown, now at 168 hours. CMC about 20 hours later.

I'm shocked to learn that there has ever been a December without a sub-freezing low at LGA. 32 is the average low for the month.

12z GFS suite still has the pattern shift and actually speeds it up to next Friday night/Saturday morning, coming in line with the CMC.

0z GFS, FV3 and GEFS holding steady with the pattern shift on the 14th. CMC has the shift as well, but 24 hours earlier.

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240. That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

I can deal with 70s in October as long as dews stay manageable but 80s are just depressing. On that note, only the GFS has low 80s for tomorrow, with the 3km NAM being especially mild with low 70s.

Very impressive system overall given the time of year. Just goes to show what lapse rates (which are usually missing in NE severe outbreaks) can do.

I'm not sold on anything major for the immediate metro area later, the NAM has the storms weakening significantly as they enter NJ this evening.

The CT supercell has weakened but still carries a STW and looks pretty nasty. Definitely still some rotation as well.

I count three tornadic cells strung out along I-80 right now, including one that's about to hit Du Bois.

There hasn't been an outbreak of any significance for PA in several years, so this looks to be the worst since the 2011 Super Outbreak (7 PA tornadoes, 2 of which were F2s) by default. Before that you'd have to go back to September 17 2004 (although that was just a lot of F1s), and then the back to back major outbreaks of May 31 and June 2, 1998 which were the worst since 1985.

I've always wondered about this. The few moderate days we get usually disappoint and the worst outbreaks I can remember have come on slight risk days.

That looks really big by regional standards.

Some very interesting looking storms in western PA right now as well.

I just love this cool, crisp October weather.

NAM has storms for us this evening. HRRR misses to the north but it's not in its ideal range right now.

GFS overshot today's high by 7 at NYC and 5 at EWR despite properly forecasting this afternoon's clouds. FV3 did better.

Models singling out Thursday as the warmest day of the week (and probably the rest of the year). Low 80s on NAM, GFS and CMC, upper 70s on ICON.

I don't know how anyone is rooting for more heat after Dewsaster 2018.

12z GFS only has 80s from Monday - Wednesday next week, and except for Wednesday is low 80s (which means upper 70s when you factor in GFS warm bias). Looks pretty chilly after that until a ridge pops back up in the super long range. On a related note: is anyone concerned about the GFS bias impacting its forecasts this winter? I don't remember the warm bias being bad last winter but it's been over the top consistently through the summer (and today, with 79 forecast at NYC when its not getting out of the low 70s). The 850 temp map might be more useful.