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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    There's a nice band over Ohio and WV, hopefully it can make it to our area.
  2. Amped
    Have never been happy with how this looks north of I70. We really don't get into the good rates. It's going to be hard to get 6" from snizzle.
  3. Amped
    Euro has a pretty strong low coming out of the central plains into the Ohio Valley late next week. It would likely result in a multiday severe outbreak. GFS looks totally different.
  4. Amped
    2018 Tornado stats from 4 states I handpicked. Tells most of the 2018 story. WY: 14 OK: 10 VA:10 ID:9 Edit: Another tornado, right after I make the post. And of course, it's in Wyoming
  5. Amped
    Now this is almost like a storm moving up the Gulf of California.
  6. Amped
    Looks like the deathband totals got killed by the upslope totals in a very slow painful way.
  7. Amped
    15:1 should be about the maximum ratio allowed on large snowstorm >20". If you have more than 30, you better have >2" liquid.
  8. Amped
    NH and Maine look like they're getting rocked just as hard as MASS
  9. Amped
    Poor Tolland, they got fringed.
  10. Amped
    Yeah kind of an odd sounding there's lift above and below H7
  11. Amped
    So a deathband forms over ORH even if no model has one there.
  12. Amped
    GFS and ECMWF D9-10 showing a possible Philippines storm. Storms don't often form below 10N, but when they do, there isn't much shear, and SSTS stay high year round in these areas.
  13. Amped
    Sandy definitely looked worse. If they had satellite in 1938 it probably wouldn't have looked much better. Transitioning storms aren't going to look as good on satellite.
  14. Amped
    Probably down to a tame 100kts with a 10 foot storm surge over the worlds most populated area. No big deal.
  15. Amped
    Taken a big jog west of the forecast track the past few hours. Moving due north as far as I can tell.
  16. Amped
    You can see it's fighting off shear and dry and maintaining intensity. It will hit cooler SSTs after 00UTC but still above 26C until close to landfall. Also models show landfall between 15 and 18utc, this track looks a tad slow.
  17. Amped
    http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171021/k10011185351000.html Transated 70 m/s= 157mph . Also yesterdays 12z Euro 24hrs had 926mb. Todays 12z was initialized to 956mb. Euro track goes right up Tokyo bay, GFS is west of it.
  18. Amped
    EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track. This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.
  19. Amped
    This is going to get pretty ugly for Tokyo and a lot of Japan, hopefully they are well prepared.
  20. Amped
    So it was a bit underdone here.
  21. Amped
    Not sure how -75.9, +19.5 is only a T6.3.
  22. Amped
    Looks like Lan finally got it's bandwidth upgraded.
  23. Amped
    You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3. Latest microwave pass says big but healthy. HWRF shows a decent 36hrs ahead. Edit: Also you can see a second band on Himawari 8 rapidly making the core symmetric. Probably bombs away for real this time. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100
  24. Amped
    I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look. Maybe the storms just too damn big. A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs, so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.
  25. Amped
    More convection on the NW side now. Should start to intensify rapidly. Euro would be a major hit for nearly all of Japan.
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