Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity. They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020. Both those storms took off pretty fast.
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That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies. It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage.
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Josh is chasing in Canada for the first time I think. This is going to be bad even by NS standards.
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The GEFS took a pretty big jump northeast.
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GFS is the furthest west of any model so it''s probably wrong. One reason is it might be having some convective feedback issues in the 42-96hr time frame. Convective blobs appear to reform the center further west several times in this timeframe.
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With cooler waters and increasing shear, it's possible the pressure doesn't change much between now and landfall. Just a big expansion of the windfield due to ET transition.
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927mb t6.7 It would be pushing cat5 if that were accurate.
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Family good track agreement from the GFS and Euro for 10 days out. GFS is quicker with development as usual. Also looks like another weaker solutions stay further south deal on the ensembles.
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ADT only off by 20mb.
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Of course the 5mb/hrs stuff only happens between recons outside radar.
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That was almost 8 hrs over land without taking much of an intensity hit.
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The ECMWF was the furthest south and likely will end up pretty accurate unless it drifts a lot further southwest.
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The troff is unmissable. It's flushing out the western 3rd of the Atlantic and the entire Caribbean.
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Guess it's a matter of taste, some like the exact center, some like the right front quad eyewall. Based on this, I'd put Ponce on the exceeded cat1 expectations list.
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Was actually expecting to see Josh here.
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Down sloping could be enhancing the MV in the NW eyewall. It doesn't seem to be circulating the eye like a typical MV would.
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It's in range of PR now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html
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Don't know what the HWRF is doing. Has it deepening from 1004 MB to 985MB in 3 hrs. HMON shows a similar convective burst and quick deepening before PR, but it's over 24hrs not 3
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You know it's desperation time when someone posts the geps.
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Yeah this is a very intensity dependent track. If it's stronger the deep layer steering turns it north. I am leaning weaker since shear really seems to be kicking it's ass right now and I don't see much change in the upper level wind configuration over the next few days.
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The GFS caved to the Navgem. Has the storm bombing out between PR and Bermuda in fairly strong SW shear. Probably way overdone.
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Earl looks the best it has so far. 90kt 954mb latest estimate, and it might still be improving, so cat3 not out of reach.
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It's gonna rain.
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Deepening in about 25kt of SW shear.
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A hurricane, just not a pretty looking one.
