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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    The Euro hasn't let us down since last week.
  2. Amped
    Better than 18z, but not as good as 12z
  3. Amped
    It never really showed tons of snow, other than the CMC and that one GFS run
  4. Amped
    Extrapolating the 18z Euro past 90 hrs hasn't let us down since last week.
  5. Amped
    Leaving the southern stream way behind again. Not good.
  6. Amped
    If December 2010 was a Miller B than we've changed the definition.
  7. Amped
    This is a Miller A screw job like December 2010.
  8. Amped
    The storm is so big its 200 miles offshore and we still get snow from it.
  9. Amped
    CMC would have March 93 superstorm if it dug the NS a couple hundred miles west.
  10. Amped
    Southern stream further east and northern stream further west. Much closer to a negatively tilted troff.
  11. Amped
    Better than 12 or 18z.
  12. Amped
    I don't see how this storm comes west if the southern stream stays behind. It's pretty much a done deal except for eastern New England if that happens.
  13. Amped
    Less progressive than 12z so far
  14. Amped
    Just look at how much models have bounced around over the past several runs and you'll realize no model has a good handle on this yet. We usually don't get a remotely accurate picture of the timing and amplitude until somewhere between 60-84hrs out.
  15. Amped
    CMC 120-126hrs shows the pressure dropping from 1014mb to 1004mb along the Carolina coast in an environment where winds are out of the north. This is probably some kind of a feedback error and effects everything that happens north of there. And total pressure drop is 1014mb to 957mb in 24hrs. Seems a bit fast.
  16. Amped
    GFS looks a little like the 18z HECS run. No first storm and digging everything pretty far west at 108hrs
  17. Amped
    932mb low south of Martha's Vineyard has my attention
  18. Amped
    GEFS are all east of the OP. Some of them give us snow.
  19. Amped
    January 25 2000 lines up with that swath pretty well
  20. Amped
    Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify. Looks more like a -epo polar vortex pattern like 2013/2014. We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also.
  21. Amped
    We all know the timing is just as wrong this run as it was last run. The difference between the GFS accuracy at 222hrs and 216hrs is negligible.
  22. Amped
    Southern stream making a quick escape this run.
  23. Amped
    Icon did well also.
  24. Amped
    This is either going to be a really big bust for the Gfs or Euro.
  25. Amped
    They still might.
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