Euro is an outlier with both the northern and southern streams. Even if it turns out correct I don't think anyone should be taking it's solution literally yet. We're going to need perfect timing to get a HECS in this chaotic pattern.
Trend on CMC since showing the HECS, A lot less phasing now. However with the 500mb low tracking over us, there is still a good chance for an over-performing high ratio event kind of like 1/30/10.
CMC looks very similar to the January 1978 KU storm.
https://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1978&mm=01&dd=20&run=06