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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Freshly thawed ground is even worse. Not having leaves on the trees will be helpful though.
  2. That looks nasty. Probably widespread power outages again for CT. This time MA and RI don't miss out.
  3. GFS slowly figuring out 85kt southeast winds at 850mb aren't good for snow.
  4. Looks quite different to the trained eye. Much stronger offshore flow. That's Probably a 960mb bomb and a Hecs at 276 or maybe just offshore.
  5. Don't look at the NAM positive snow depth change map.
  6. Euro has a string of weaker ones. Could lead to some pretty big gusts along the coast.
  7. 850 Low level jet it cranking, very far south, a sign this will probably be a historic large swath of heavy snow. We probably won't be in it though,
  8. Nashville gets Named on this run.
  9. The 18z Icon match the Euro and did this also. Seems there's no avoiding that track, it stays further south initially and the HP moves offshore when the low's further south and has more time to pull it back west before it gets here. We need it to trend 300 miles ENE to make a big difference which doesn't happen with disturbances tracking across the gulf coast. That's why I gave up on big snows for 95% of the area this morning.
  10. You don't see a 980 low over hagerstown often.
  11. Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it.
  12. Yeah but the low is further west so the spacing isn't changed. Edit: Nevermind it got worse. Going even further west.
  13. For all the uncertainty in the ensembles, GFS OP looks like it;s headed for the same solution as 18z. Nothing major changed through 84hrs.
  14. I've only seen an apps runner so far on models. No Cleveland superbomb solutions yet.
  15. The high is in a similar spot to the GFS. The LP in the south is about 5mb weaker with much less return flow coming from the gulf.
  16. Nothing off the table, could track easily track over Detroit, or end up a cutoff low over Arizona. There isn't anything really pinning this pattern down.
  17. 6z also had a pretty big disconnect between the GFS and the GEFS. Looks a little fishy. Time to put more trust in the EPS
  18. About 10 more runs until it's over Chicago.
  19. Got a high in the perfect spot, a 50/50 low and the shortwave is a well defined 540-546 split. This is usually how a KU storm starts, not saying it will happen though.
  20. CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us. I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.
  21. Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.
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