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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Better than 12 or 18z.
  2. Amped
    I don't see how this storm comes west if the southern stream stays behind. It's pretty much a done deal except for eastern New England if that happens.
  3. Amped
    Less progressive than 12z so far
  4. Amped
    Just look at how much models have bounced around over the past several runs and you'll realize no model has a good handle on this yet. We usually don't get a remotely accurate picture of the timing and amplitude until somewhere between 60-84hrs out.
  5. Amped
    CMC 120-126hrs shows the pressure dropping from 1014mb to 1004mb along the Carolina coast in an environment where winds are out of the north. This is probably some kind of a feedback error and effects everything that happens north of there. And total pressure drop is 1014mb to 957mb in 24hrs. Seems a bit fast.
  6. Amped
    GFS looks a little like the 18z HECS run. No first storm and digging everything pretty far west at 108hrs
  7. Amped
    932mb low south of Martha's Vineyard has my attention
  8. Amped
    GEFS are all east of the OP. Some of them give us snow.
  9. Amped
    January 25 2000 lines up with that swath pretty well
  10. Amped
    Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify. Looks more like a -epo polar vortex pattern like 2013/2014. We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also.
  11. Amped
    We all know the timing is just as wrong this run as it was last run. The difference between the GFS accuracy at 222hrs and 216hrs is negligible.
  12. Amped
    Southern stream making a quick escape this run.
  13. Amped
    Icon did well also.
  14. Amped
    This is either going to be a really big bust for the Gfs or Euro.
  15. Amped
    They still might.
  16. Amped
  17. Amped
    This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10.
  18. Amped
    The surface low and the 500mb low are 800 miles apart on some models. The precip moves in lockstep with the baroclinic zone at this point. Even better if the baroclinic zone is further north In AL/MS so the low gets cranking earlier.
  19. Amped
    Icon and RGEM keep us in the game at least. The GFS is
  20. Amped
    Not bad at 500mb. I'll take that look and assume they'll be precip further northwest.
  21. Amped
    NAM 500mb looks like Gollum's spine.
  22. Amped
    Agreed looking at the 18z Euro 72, there is no reason to believe it would be drastically different with the storm than 12z.
  23. Amped
    Euro is an outlier with both the northern and southern streams. Even if it turns out correct I don't think anyone should be taking it's solution literally yet. We're going to need perfect timing to get a HECS in this chaotic pattern.
  24. Amped
    Only need to get the southern stream 500 miles further east and the northern stream 500 miles west for it to look like the Euro.
  25. Amped
    Trend on CMC since showing the HECS, A lot less phasing now. However with the 500mb low tracking over us, there is still a good chance for an over-performing high ratio event kind of like 1/30/10.
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