Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Does look like there's some wind shear eating apart the western side of the storm.
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The latest recon ob is hitting 64kt winds further out than yesterday it seems. The next set of obs will be telling. Edit: Nope still one eyewall
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Models showing only small fluctuations in inensity over the next few days. Wonder how long this can stay essentially a steady state CAT4?
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Here's how you know this is a fish storm. You don't see this quote in an nhc discussion when a storm is near land and warnings are up.
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A few years back Dorian had a ~137kt SFMR with about the same pressure and NHC didn't upgrade it to a CAT5 since FL winds weren't high enough. Wonder if they do the same here? Also there no rain flagged SFMR obs in the core. That's pretty unusual.
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Also I don't see any sign of an ERC in the wind or pressure data. Just one sharp wind max on both sides.
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Hurricane Charlie basically.
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PSU ewall site has a decent Goes 16 page too now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_US/index.html
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Yes I'm using weather nerds, cyclonicWX and COD
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Only 95kt at 5AM. That eye is impressive though. This will probably make a run at CAT5 unless shear kicks in by tonight.
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Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida.
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Raw Adt up to 5.3. The eye is clearing out. Should be a major by 5am.
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After some dry air disruptions this morning the core looks great now.
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Euro just doesn't dig the troff. Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right. Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show.
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Update: Visible satellite supports a 10.5N center. The 12z early cycle guidance has it at 10N. Still needs another cycle or 2 to close the gap.
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GFS has the vortex initialized at ~8.6N. Invest position also looks way too far south. I'm guessing it's actually at 10.5N-11N.
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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At this point, it's just trying to confuse us.
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Clear NNE trend on the GFS.
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Just noticed the Euro and UKMET are way slower than every other model to move the storm through Houston. GFS CMC NAVGEM and ICON have the storm at the LA border at 72hrs. EURO/UKMET have it stalled over San Antonio. Assuming the more progressive solutions verify, the rainfall duration for Houston will be much shorter. Maybe just a 6-10 hr deluge which can easily drop 10" of rain. The 40" totals won't stand much of a chance though.
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Am not liking this storm at all. At least Harvey was a nice looking CAT4 when it hit the coast. This will be an ugly mess and cause major flooding problems. Also a lot of that precip falls in 18-24hrs over the Houston area.
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Finally center is kinda showing up on radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO2/loop.html
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Larry just needs a few more splotches before 11pm and NHC will likely upgrade it to a Jackson Pollock painting.
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Larry's outflow should get captured by the right entrance region of a jet streak over the next 24-48hrs. This might be able to intensify it again assuming the water is warm enough and the structure isn't too degraded.
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I better be able to count at least 10 MVs in the eye or it's a bust.
