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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Same as it has looked for 3 days but moving faster.
  2. Amped
    Latest Recon dropsonde 941mb.Hasn't changed since last night despite the CDO cooling trend.
  3. Amped
    Cloud ring has been cooling again the last few hours. Might be starting another period of intensification.
  4. Amped
    Another ERC underway on the latest recon. Pressure has gone down though. This managed to stay a CAT4 despite the dry air yesterday which is now gone.
  5. Amped
    That was a quick erc. Latest recon shows outer eyewall is now stronger. Almost no sigs of an outer eyewall from the last mission. Mysterious storm.
  6. Amped
    Eye is out again. Sam's fighting it's way back quickly over the last few hours.
  7. Amped
    Kind of unusual for an ERC to visible on IR literally.
  8. Amped
    It has weakened enough that it could RI again.
  9. Amped
    It's weakening faster than IDA after landfall.
  10. Amped
    Does look like there's some wind shear eating apart the western side of the storm.
  11. Amped
    The latest recon ob is hitting 64kt winds further out than yesterday it seems. The next set of obs will be telling. Edit: Nope still one eyewall
  12. Amped
    Models showing only small fluctuations in inensity over the next few days. Wonder how long this can stay essentially a steady state CAT4?
  13. Amped
    Here's how you know this is a fish storm. You don't see this quote in an nhc discussion when a storm is near land and warnings are up.
  14. Amped
    A few years back Dorian had a ~137kt SFMR with about the same pressure and NHC didn't upgrade it to a CAT5 since FL winds weren't high enough. Wonder if they do the same here? Also there no rain flagged SFMR obs in the core. That's pretty unusual.
  15. Amped
    Also I don't see any sign of an ERC in the wind or pressure data. Just one sharp wind max on both sides.
  16. Amped
    Hurricane Charlie basically.
  17. Amped
    PSU ewall site has a decent Goes 16 page too now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_US/index.html
  18. Amped
    Yes I'm using weather nerds, cyclonicWX and COD
  19. Amped
    Only 95kt at 5AM. That eye is impressive though. This will probably make a run at CAT5 unless shear kicks in by tonight.
  20. Amped
    Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida.
  21. Amped
    Raw Adt up to 5.3. The eye is clearing out. Should be a major by 5am.
  22. Amped
    After some dry air disruptions this morning the core looks great now.
  23. Amped
    Euro just doesn't dig the troff. Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right. Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show.
  24. Amped
    Update: Visible satellite supports a 10.5N center. The 12z early cycle guidance has it at 10N. Still needs another cycle or 2 to close the gap.
  25. Amped
    GFS has the vortex initialized at ~8.6N. Invest position also looks way too far south. I'm guessing it's actually at 10.5N-11N.
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