Solak

RAH - Sunday afternoon update. By Thursday morning, we'll see moist WSW flow aloft beginning to overrun the cold low level airmass advecting into NC, thus many of the models have been suggesting some light precip developing to our SW and skirting at least our southern and southeast zones during the daytime and evening Thursday. It's worth noting that the operational ECWMF has been shifting the precip shield further and further south with recent runs (given its further southward progression of the aforementioned cold front). That said, if the GFS and Canadian verify, which suggest that precip will fall farther north than what the ECMWF shows, forecast soundings from these models suggest an opportunity for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the otherwise light rain over the south and southeast portions of our CWA. Clearly there is a great deal of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, so the best advice now is to stay tuned to future forecasts for updates, but right now we are not forecasting anything that would lead to substantial weather impacts for central NC later this week.

Where did THIS come from? (I know it's not mid-long range, but it's not an observation yet, either ) Tonight A chance of flurries between 11pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 51s The 12z ECMWF continues support a wintry weather threat late next week. Overrunning wintry precip in Southeast Thursday, coastal low by Saturday with wintry weather eastern Carolinas/SE Va. 12z GFS/Canadian had no overrunning and coastal too far offshore. 12z EC keeps hope alive.

Chasing D10 storms = doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result.

@NWSReno Kirkwood now gusting 209 MPH! This could potentially be a new California state record wind speed if verified!

James Spann 14 mins · NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) continues to support the idea of a concentrated area of heavy rain this week over North Alabama. There will be a sharp cut-off on the southern periphery, most likely somewhere around I-20. Rain amounts of 4-6 inches are possible somewhere in that 60-100 mile wide strip, and flooding issues (both flash flooding and river flooding) are likely. 69

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · We have been upgraded to a high risk for Flash flooding for Thursday. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 165

Yeah, it's looking like it'll be quite an event. Soggy ground and any severe wind events won't be a good mix, either.

And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25"

Geez--- the 12z GFS is pushing out over 4.5" rain on Thursday!!!

RAH early thoughts for next weekend. It's worth noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the upper low passage. The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend! The Canadian looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement.

141 years ago, the weather was still the same!

8 NE Garland [Sampson Co, NC] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG at 1:38 PM EST -- *** 3 INJ *** A WATER LOADED MICROBURST OCCURRED OVER UNION INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL, CAUSING A PARTIAL ROOF COLLAPSE. THREE STUDENTS WERE TREATED FOR MINOR INJURIES AND TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL.

Yeah - kinda crazy to be even posting 384hr maps from the Sears Wish Book.

Not totally unheard of. All of central NC and a good portion of SC had one on this date in 2014.

Pretty big expansion up in to NC

GFS has been all over the place with precip amounts for this coming weekend. RDU has gone from 4.52" on yesterday's 06z to 0.24" this morning for the same time period.

This came out of nowhere... Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 809 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms capable of localized wind gusts up to 40 mph or even a brief tornado will be possible through 11 PM.

For the uninformed, 15-20mph wind now is considered "intense" The wind in the area reached 15-20 mph, according to CNN Meteorologist Gene Norman. It was so intense that it broke state Sen. Jamaal Bailey's umbrella as he was addressing reporters at the scene. A massive wind turbine in New York City crashes down onto a car https://www.foxcarolina.com/a-massive-wind-turbine-in-new-york-city-crashes-down/article_49f21efd-684e-5d6f-9635-3b1c60224d28.html?fbclid=IwAR0jw7-CJdkcJ9F3g1tn1aMGyzBhxK8KrYwNkpzT7jUfvlgvvfPN5Di83zo

Love model mayhem. 00z GFS - 2.12" precip this weekend. 06z GFS - 0.48" this weekend.

It would take a lot for anything frozen based on the 12z. The cold is very fleeting, and not really all that 'cold'.

Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them.