Solak

0.43" on Thursday.

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 51s The 12z ECMWF continues support a wintry weather threat late next week. Overrunning wintry precip in Southeast Thursday, coastal low by Saturday with wintry weather eastern Carolinas/SE Va. 12z GFS/Canadian had no overrunning and coastal too far offshore. 12z EC keeps hope alive.

Chasing D10 storms = doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result.

Starting the morning out at 68 degrees at 7:30. Supposed to be 40 degrees colder in 48 hours.

Yesterday was a pretty big forecast bust around here. Picked up 0.04" early in the morning, and then nothing the rest of the day or overnight.

.02" overnight. Looking like a dryer afternoon than expected, based on current radar trends, until the front gets closer later in the day.

@NWSReno Kirkwood now gusting 209 MPH! This could potentially be a new California state record wind speed if verified!

James Spann 14 mins · NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) continues to support the idea of a concentrated area of heavy rain this week over North Alabama. There will be a sharp cut-off on the southern periphery, most likely somewhere around I-20. Rain amounts of 4-6 inches are possible somewhere in that 60-100 mile wide strip, and flooding issues (both flash flooding and river flooding) are likely. 69

A rather chilly 26 degrees this morning.

One of the local roads (Swift Creek Rd.) here is closed for flooding. That hasn't happened since Matthew. Impressive rise on the Neuse in Smithfield. Flood stage is 15', currently 18.3', supposed to crest at 20.3' overnight.

3.70 yesterday. Had some insane gusts earlier this morning around 7:00 - easily 40-50mph. It's settled down a little now - the pines are whistling instead of howling.

Adding to the above, when was the last time there such a widespread RAIN event from Florida to Maine, stretching from the mountains to the coast ---- all at the same time?

Rain has finally made it here. Time to add to the 0.75" we had between 7-9 this morning.

Forward progression seems to be temporarily halted at the Wake/JoCo line. Still dry here in Clayton.

@WRAL · 28s Just In: People asked to take shelter at Charlotte-Douglas airport, UNC Charlotte during tornado warning #wral

0.58" overnight,

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · We have been upgraded to a high risk for Flash flooding for Thursday. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 165

Temp is slowly creeping up. 70 now.

Yeah, it's looking like it'll be quite an event. Soggy ground and any severe wind events won't be a good mix, either.

And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25"

The ever-present caveat for Thursday's potential heavy rain event... One important, potential caveat worth mentioning is that historically, whenever you have such a strong, dynamic system digging as far south as the GOM, there is the potential to see a reduction in QPF downstream(across our latitude), due to the likelihood of organized upstream convection racing east within the axis of moderate instability (~1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) in place across the Deep South/eastern Gulf Coast region. An alternate scenario such as this has played out numerous times, and this system definitely fits into the conceptual model.

Geez--- the 12z GFS is pushing out over 4.5" rain on Thursday!!!

0.74" Friday. All rain. CoCoRaHS January Monthly total 4.28"