Solak

Coming in at peak heating... RAH: Showers and scattered storms moving into the W CWA at the start of this period are expected to grow upscale and strengthen as they head E through Fri afternoon and encounter increasing diurnal destabilization within a background of strengthening deep layer shear. A nose of 50-60 kt mid level winds will spread in during the afternoon, just behind a 40-45 kt SW 850 mb jet and beneath strengthening upper divergence along and just ahead of the trough axis. These improving kinematics in conjunction with marginal to moderate destabilization should facilitate organization of convection into a wavy line or bowing segments capable of producing pockets of straight line wind damage, with a lesser risk of a weak tornado or two. The primary threat will be in the afternoon, decreasing by early evening as the surface cold front sweeps to our E and brings about late-night W-to-E clearing. Highs should range from the lower 70s NW, a minimal diurnal rise due to the clouds and precip, ranging to the upper 70s/near 80 E. With cold air advection Fri night, lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Frequent gusts to 25-30 kts are expected with SW surface winds ahead of the front, with gustiness lingering into early evening immediately behind the front as winds veer to W and WNW. -GIH

Charlotte News & Observer headline. Life-threatening ‘microbursts’ may erupt as storms hit I-77 corridor Friday afternoon https://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article229663139.html?fbclid=IwAR1Kw-JK4RFEPSs5s3zGfy0YXkAdCM4ObUlM46gRLfftWHew-av1cE8qnjA

RAH: The s/w exiting the Deep South early Friday will phase with another (though weaker) s/w in the northern stream and lift newd across the Carolinas Friday afternoon, taking a slight negative tilt as it does so. Surface based instability has trended more unstable compared to 36-24 hours ago with the NAM depicting MLCAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg over the region by mid day. While the kinematics not as impressive as last Friday, presence of 35kts low level jet and central NC in the nose of a 100+kt upper jet will provide enough shear and lift to generate thunderstorms, some of which could be strong/locally severe. The main severe weather hazard will be locally damaging straightline winds. Based on current timing, the threat for a strong/severe storm will be mainly across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and the Coastal Plain during the afternoon hours.

*Sigh* Starting to get all the Medicare information in the mail. So many suplimental plans out there to review as well.

The models continue to hone in on the heavy rain and severe (damaging wind and isolated tornado) threat for Friday into Friday evening for our region. Increasing gradient southerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph expected Friday. The approaching mid/upper trough is forecast to become a full deep trough/closed upper low as it approaches from the west on Friday and Friday night. The main cold front is expected to push east through central NC Friday afternoon into Friday night. An narrow but strong plume of deep moisture will be tapped from the subtropics around Cuba and Greater Antilles up and along the cold front. Most likely record high precipitable water value anomalies in record territory for the middle of April (+3 to +4 standard deviations above normal), will lead to dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s feeding into our region. This supply of moisture will lead to intense rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour with the heaviest showers/thunderstorms that will occur in bands as they move across the region Friday into Friday evening. QPF on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches can be expected with locally 2.5 inches storm totals (most areas will see the bursts of heavy rain for 3-6 hours as the bands move through). Flash flooding will be possible given the saturated ground and recent high river levels. In addition, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts as very strong winds aloft are forecast which can be tapped in the stronger and more intense cells or bands. Hail should be limited given the warm conveyor belt of subtropical moisture aloft. If there is any sun or breaks in the overcast (most likely in the Coastal Plain and eastward) then the damaging wind threat would increase given as the low level instability that can be tapped will become higher. Highs generally 70-75 west to 75-near 80 east. Gradient winds of 20 to 30 mph will gust to 40 mph. The models suggest that a mid-level dry punch will arrive Friday evening and push the severe and flash flood threats to our east during the evening, leaving variably cloudy skies and scattered showers overnight. Lows in the upper 40s and 50s NW to E.

...Another severe threat Friday afternoon and night... Another large and potentially strong mid/upper low is forecast to move out of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday, then possibly cut off from the main jet stream over the Tennessee Valley region by Friday. The operational GFS at the current time appears to be an outlier solution (may be too far south) than the model consensus. Regardless, a deep fetch of subtropical air feed into the system from the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico potentially producing very heavy rainfall rates in convective bands that develop Friday into Friday night. In addition, shear again is expected to become significant Friday afternoon and evening increasing the severe threat (which may be comparable or higher than Sunday's event). We will carry likely POP Friday into Friday night for showers and thunderstorms. If the mid level circulation cuts off, then the cold upper levels combined with surface heating may continue to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday. However, the highest severe threat, highest QPF, and POP will be on Friday and Friday night until the cold front passes. A drier NW flow is expected on the back side of the system by Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Locally, things are juicing up. Currently 73/72. RAH update: 14Z mesoanalysis and latest visible satellite imagery suggest the southern Piedmont into the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain have become unstable with SBCAPE near or slightly above 2000 J/kg. Available bulk shear is sufficiently strong enough to support convection with bowing segments associated with strong/damaging winds. The presence of a low level boundary will enhance low level helicity, and with available instability, cannot rule out a storm or that displays supercellular characteristics, possibly producing large hail or a brief, weak tornado. This threat appears highest between 3 PM and 7 PM.

@CarolinaScanner 1m1 minute ago NC: Lee & Harnett Counties - Reported tornado touchdowns. Rescues being performed.

Nate Johnson‏Verified account @nsj 2m2 minutes ago 6:50pm: Debris signature on radar / suggests tornado was/is on the ground and enough to kick up debris. Would be rain-wrapped. Go inside and get low!

At 645 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Fuquay-Varina, or 10 miles northwest of Lillington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

After the current band of storms passes through... This HWO is for most of the RAH forecast area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early evening. The primary severe weather threat will be locally strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. A weak tornado cannot be ruled out. A cold front approaching from the west late Sunday into Sunday night will be accompanied by a band of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. The main severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly a weak tornado.

Under our first severe warning of the year. Hearing some boomers out there. Hard to believe that 6 days ago it was only 37 degrees out! 81/64 currently.

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 2m2 minutes ago Latest update from @NWSSPC has upgraded portions of our forecast area (including the #Triad of #NCwx) to an ENHANCED RISK (3 of 5) for Severe Weather this evening. The forecast on timing remains the same, but the risk for damaging straight-line winds is increasing.

RAH: 10:50AM Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity.

NWS Eastern Region‏Verified account @NWSEastern 53s54 seconds ago Potential for severe thunderstorms today & tonight across parts of the Southeast & southern mid Atlantic regions. Damaging wind gusts % large hail are the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, as well as torrential downpours producing localized flooding.

First Hummingbird of 2019 at the feeder today!

Welcome to DST, that time of year when the models runs are an hour different for the next 7+ months

Love all the current snow/sleet observations in the mid-long term thread.

15 hours without a post in the SE Forum is pretty telling... unless everyone is on double secret probation or something.

Well, the Daytona 500 is finally over. Now the NASCAR season can begin!

If you add up all the percentages of rain for the next week, we have like a 740% chance of rain!!!

Glenn Burns... going out on a limb! Next weekend into early next week you all need to stay tuned. Big time cold air and snow would be likely. Cannot say where or how much yet. We will not know that until the day before, as always. Right now it looks like the precip moves in first and THEN the cold air. Not ideal conditions for a big snow storm. It’s more like the air gets colder AFTER the big event and then the colder air squeezes out what moisture remains. Time will tell. Too early to be any more specific.

Happy New Year, gang!

Quite a bit different from the 'standard' GFS for the same time.

Out at the beach... As of 1245 PM Sun...Updated to increase winds later today and esp this evening, as low pres now centered near Charleston races NE and up the NC coast this evening. The low will quickly deepen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, with most models indicating 15mb per 12hr pres falls as it exits off the OBX. Have upgraded OBX zones to a high wind warning as could see some gusts to 60 mph this evening. Otherwise, breezy and wet conditions across E NC with large area of stratiform rain continuing to move through the region.