RAH is waiting for more model consistency.
A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front
that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the
front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along
the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by
Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina
at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The
GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the
last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the
timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the
GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF
has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation
mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this
part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of
consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed
by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air
Tuesday night and beyond.