Solak

For the Friday system ... RAH Medium-range models indicate a weak shortwave trough swinging through the area Thursday/Friday, however there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the strength of the wave and whether it will generate any precipitation.

I'll blame it on the model run . It's not doing a good job depicting the rain currently falling along the lower Gulf states from West of New Orleans to JAX. 18z shows all the rain should be in the FL peninsula.

18z GFS - What storm?

GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track EURO Sunday, GFS Friday.

0.55" overnight

Gotta love the headlines this morning. USA Today: Next week's Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US CBS News: Americans prepare for Arctic blast

72 today. Probably won't see that again for a while.

RAH is waiting for more model consistency. A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air Tuesday night and beyond.

12z - the cold is 12 degrees warmer (35), and it's all rain (0.58") for RDU.

This would be ugly...

The 1-2 inches widespread significant rainfall mentioned above is now... While the cold front may lack widespread precipitation with it, it will not lack for cold air.

GFS (for Raleigh) has gone from 1.6" liquid (18z 11/3) to 0.025" (12z 11/4) for the upcoming 7 day period.

Rooftop frost and 32 this morning.

RAH: Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day expected on Friday.

Maybe for some, but not all.

18zGFS Hr 276. Later with the cold...

Impressive lightning. Seeing the sky light up from storms 50+ miles away.

For our Northern Counties...

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0

* Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.