Solak

It's gonna be May all over again! Lows in the 69-73 range, with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93 elsewhere. Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.

It's GFS-FV3 showtime. National Weather Service‏Verified account @NWS 3h3 hours ago .@NOAA’s flagship weather model is undergoing a significant upgrade today to improve future forecasts of severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclones. Read more at https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model … #GFS

NWS WPC‏Verified account @NWSWPC 12m12 minutes ago A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the South Carolina/Georgia coast through tomorrow afternoon where up to 3 inches of rain is possible.

Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 9m9 minutes ago We had a possible tornado touchdown near Ellenboro at 5:10 pm. I have some confirmed damage reports and a very short lived couplet on radar. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

Lost power for almost 2 hours. 2 rounds of storms, 1.60" =/-, and the rainy stuff is still a few days away! We're gonna be

Mesoscale Discussion 984 < Previous MD Next MD > Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2019 Areas affected...South and North Carolina through southern and central Virginia...Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051652Z - 051845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

...GA/SC/NC/VA... Another convectively aided shortwave trough is noted over eastern KY/TN. This feature will track across the mountains and into southern VA and the Carolinas this afternoon. A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present over this region, with sufficient daytime heating to help initiate storms. 12z CAMs are consistent in developing multiple lines of storms across this area later today. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and degree of CAPE suggest a risk of damaging winds and hail with the activity. Organized and occasionally severe storms are possible as far south as eastern GA today.

Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 4m4 minutes ago 12:30 pm ET: Updated Severe Weather Outlook. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Texas-Leads-US-in-Tornado-Count-for-2019-510667461.html

NWS SPC‏Verified account @NWSSPC 3m3 minutes ago 11:44am CDT #SPC_MD 0971 , #scwx #gawx, https://go.usa.gov/xmM2j

RAH: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... ...Confidence increasing of a multi-day heavy rain threat across the Southeast Friday through early next week... A 4 to 5 day period of anomalously high PWATS of 2.0" or more(potentially enhanced by tropical remnants of the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche) during which a stalled frontal zone will bisect the area followed by increasing cyclonic flow aloft and then the arrival of strong synoptic lift with the upper level trough and cold front moving into the area will result in a multi-day heavy rainfall threat across the region with a cumulative 2-4" of rain possible.

All depends on what your idea of severe is, I guess.

It's a shame that area is sort of in no-mans-land... equidistant, and too far from all 3 relevant radar sites.

That escalated quickly from 6:20 until now. Had some 1/2" hail, and over 1.50" rain and counting.

That's a good sized watch box

Getting a nice view of cloud top lightning from the storms........40 miles off to the Southeast!

For Friday, 5/31/19 NWS SPC‏Verified account @NWSSPC 8m8 minutes ago 12:34pm CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Slight Risk: over a portion of the upper midwest and great lakes as well as eastern virginia into north carolina http://go.usa.gov/YW34

Brad's touting the Death Ridge. "This (Wednesday) will be the coolest day we're going to see for a long time and I'm not kidding," said chief meteorologist Brad Panovich. "Probably the coolest day we see until Autumn." Good writeup on the upcoming heat. https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/panovich-death-ridge-will-bring-intense-heat-with-possible-record-highs-to-charlotte-area/275-aed8e0c4-1049-4489-b04a-bac10c9e4199?fbclid=IwAR3Xcq-6PwBL6qDaZRz5ZV6c3nJkKPwNW7YA1uWxdkb4TlCRzc7BUBx4dmo

We've had them around here since early April.

Not in our area, but this is pretty crazy for the TX/OK area later today...

Euro = 594 death ridge. GFS = 595 death ridge. Pick your poison.

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/13/19 EASTERN WAKE / WESTERN NASH COUNTY TORNADO EVENT... .EF-2 Tornado confirmed near Knightdale to Bailey North Carolina... Start Location...4 miles NE of Knightdale End Location...4 miles NNW of Bailey Date...May 13, 2019 Estimated Time...10:13 AM EDT - 10:39 AM EDT Maximum EF- Scale Rating...EF-2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...115 mph Maximum Path Width...385 yards Path Length...17.40 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...35.8275/-78.4399 Ending Lat/Lon...35.8288/-78.1371 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... The tornado initially touched down just west of Rolesville Road near Tink's Place in eastern Wake County. The tornado initially produced widespread EF-1 damage with sporadic EF-2 damage noted on Weathers Road. Along the path to Weathers Road, numerous trees were either uprooted or snapped and mangled together, consistent with EF-1 damage. At Weathers Road, structural damage was noted as a single family home had its exterior walls collapsed. Several metal farm buildings were also completely destroyed and strewn about a field. Sheet metal was wrapped around a nearby tree. An RV was flipped over numerous times landing crushed in an open field. In addition, another home had the windows blown out with roof damage. It was in this area that EF-2 damage was determined. The tornado continued tracking east and crossed Edgemont Road just north of HWY 264/64, then crossing HWY 264/64 where numerous trees were downed and snapped. Generally EF-1 damage was noted here. The tornado then moved east into Zebulon along and near Highway 97 (West Gannon Avenue) where numerous trees snapped and uprooted. It continued east of Zebulon, crossing HWY 264/64 again, and going just north of the Five County Stadium. Generally EF-0 and EF-1 damage was noted here. The tornado then crossed into Nash County, where damage was observed on Brantley Road. Most of the damage consisted of trees being snapped and uprooted, with structural damage to an open-air farm outhouse. Just east on Massey Road, one newly constructed home suffered roof damage, with roof trusses severely damaged. Shingles had not been completed on the home yet, therefore this damage was considered EF-1 level. Also on Massey Road, a modular home suffered roof and wall damage, while two farm outhouses were severely damaged. The tornado then tracked east along Nade Road causing more uprooted and snapped trees. A home along Nade Road also lost its chimney with a cinderblock outhouse suffering complete roof failure. Finally, the tornado began to weaken as it crossed the woods east of Hoyt Road, and it eventually lifted just east of Winters Road.

Our niece's van got hammered...somewhere in the Cleveland/Clayton area, I think.

Hook was JUST to our N

Quarter size hail here at the house in that Tor Warned JoCo storm.