Solak

...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Slight risk has been dropped.

Looking ahead to Tuesday... RAH QPF is anemic on the latest model runs and the trends have been going in that direction in the last several runs. We will carry a chance of showers, but QPF will be limited to most likely less than 0.10.

Forecast has changed a little for here. They took next week's chance of showers out. Another week of dryness looms.

Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says: For those looking for cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly bring temperatures to below normal values for early October.

We might "see" some precipitation Monday night/Tuesday morning!!! Latest run of the NAM is showing enough air mass moderation for some virga possible across the northern zones.

Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh... Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front from the northwest.

Seeing lots of Tweets today similar to this one.

For the Raleigh area folks...

Have a great trip!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

And the crazy 06zNAM 3.83" and afternoon highs in the 60's on Saturday with a dry Sunday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

For RAH... 00z GFS 0.76" --- dry Sunday 06z GFS 2.32" --- wet Sunday. 00z rebounds in to the low 80's on Sunday 06z keeps it in the low 70's.

Well, it's not the 70's, but it's also not the 90's. High temperatures should remain near normal on Friday before dropping considerably the remainder of the period thanks to a plethora of cloud cover and the presence of ongoing showers/storms. Expect afternoon temperatures to meander within the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the low to middle 60s during the overnight hours. Some hints at a temperature increase as the front attempts to return north early next week, plausibly allowing central NC to return back into the warm sector.

GFS (18z) is still holding strong on the weekend cooldown. Low to mid 70's at this location.

I'll gladly take the rain without the severe factor. Dry around these parts.

From RAH this afternoon: Looking into Wednesday night into Thursday, this looks like the period most likely to receive significant rainfall at this point. In fact WPC QPF values for Wednesday and Thursday show a combined 2.5 to 3 inches of rain possible in the eastern half of the forecast area with a sharp gradient of lower values to the northwest. While the confidence in the frontal zone being over the area is high, the higher totals will ultimately depend upon where the shortwaves develop and supply the extra dynamics for enhanced rainfall. With more unsettled conditions in place and cloud cover likely to be greater, expect temperatures for the rest of the period to drop into the mid 80s for afternoon highs.

Another dry cold front. This east Coast trough and recent fronts haven't worked out very well for this location in the past 3 weeks. Just 0.58" since 7/24. Three more dry days forecast before the next monsoon sets in.

Had one over this way as well... ...Summary... A brief tornado touched down 11 miles southwest of Clayton, in the Cleveland area of Johnston County, near the intersection of Cornwallis Road and Justin Drive and lifted near the intersection of Goldfield Drive and Justin Drive on July 23, 2019. Damage observed included minor shingle loss on several homes, numerous softwood trees snapped, and lawn furniture tossed a substantial distance. Damage is consistent with a brief tornado with maximum wind speeds of 80 to 90 mph.

3 E Fuquay-Varina [Wake Co, NC] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 23 Jul, 2:34 PM EDT -- A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED IN THE COMMUNITY OF WILLOW SPRINGS, NC ON JULY 23, 2019. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED OF A COMBINATION OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES, MINOR SIDING DAMAGE TO ONE HOME, AND NUMEROUS FENCES BLOWN DOWN. THE TYPES AND DIAMETERS OF THE AFFECTED TREES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS OF 75 TO 85 MPH.

Was thinking the same thing. At least they're predicting a 'decent' amount of rain. From this morning's AFD Rainfall amounts in the 1 to 1.5 inch range will be possible during this 12 to 18 hour period, with higher amounts possible in areas that see training or slow moving thunderstorms