Solak

82/77 HI = 90!!! Shouldn't we be having wind chills by now?

Not sure if this is going to pan out or not. "Showers likely, mainly between 4pm and 5pm."

0.01" overnight. Temp was 73 when I got up at 6:00

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

77/61 at noontime. That's supposed to be our high for the day.

Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0

Our part of the line broke up. Only grabbed .05".

* Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Slight risk has been dropped.

0.38" yesterday morning. Storm total 1.77".

Cold front is approaching... 60 in Raleigh, 72 here at KJNX. 1.39" up until 7:00AM, about another 0.50" since then.

Looking ahead to Tuesday... RAH QPF is anemic on the latest model runs and the trends have been going in that direction in the last several runs. We will carry a chance of showers, but QPF will be limited to most likely less than 0.10.

We shall see...

37 again this morning.

A crisp 37 this morning.

1.12" yesterday. Dipped down to 42 here at the house this morning.

Over an inch here since 8:00 this morning.

I hope this doesn't become the norm... With the coastal storm's track continuing to trend offshore, thinking the highest QPF amounts (0.5 - 1.25") will remain east of our CWA boundary, primarily along the far eastern coastline. Further west, a secondary swath of higher precipitation values will be possible between the foothills and Triad region, while areas in-between could could see closer to 0.25" as a dry-slot begins to setup. CAMs and global models continue to differ in terms of location/intensity of these precipitation gradients, so have chosen to go more conservative with a smoothed forecast output.

45 this morning. Currently 77.

0.87", with some decent lightning/thunder last evening.

I'm not going to hold my breath, but one can hope... Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.