Solak

NWS stays mostly South.

That's a pretty tight rainfall gradient! Brad Panovich Meteorologist · There will be some serious rain across the South Carolina into parts of North Carolina over the next few days. The farther south you are the higher the totals. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 31

Sure seems that way - 18z is way off again.

Watching the current(next) system develop... rain is MUCH further North and East in Texas than depicted on today's 12z GFS at hour 18z

You know it's a cold airmass when it's only 41 at the Diamond Shoals Light Tower!

Interesting temperature spread this morning across NC 54 in Topton 48 in Raleigh 34 in Smithfield

This ratio would be nice with one of the upcoming systems... @NWSKansasCity · 16m Just took our official noon observation and we had 3.0" here in Pleasant Hill. The liquid equivalent was 0.18" for a liquid to snow ratio of 17 to 1.

06Z GFS for RDU http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

Ended up with 2.65".

Kinda funny that now that the rain has started, our chance of rain has been lowered from 100% to 90% for today. Confusing.

A caliper would also work if measuring on a tree twig.

An official CoCoRaHS rain gauge will do the trick.

Could be a much needed soaker for the end of the week. When all is said and done, total liquid precipitation for the period Thursday night through Friday night could range from an inch to an inch and a half in most places.

0.28" overnight.

Looks like we're going to really miss out on this afternoon's 80% chance of rain. Closest radar returns are 3 counties away.

Those are temperatures, and a rare example of Warm Air Damming.

72/63 and sunny over this way.

Looking ahead to Christmas week, the 06z GFS is currently showing a rainy (2.16") period from 12/23 through early 12/25. Another cold chasing the rain as depicted.

0.43" yesterday/last night.

RAH thoughts at this time... Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at all. It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night-- has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place during that time.

Made it up to 54 this afternoon (forecast 51). It must have been chilly 9 years ago. Me on Twitter... December 7, 2010 at 3:54 PM · Seems strange saying "I really miss 40° temperatures".

28 this morning. Can see a few patches of virga ribbons in the cloud deck this afternoon.

I'm having a hard time with the GFS lately in even the mid range. Yesterday, it showed us getting 1.90" for next Mon-Wed rain event. Today, it's down to just 0.18".