Solak

The afternoon 70% chance was a 100% bust. Southern end of the line just vanished on approach.

1.23" Friday

This came out of nowhere... Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 809 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms capable of localized wind gusts up to 40 mph or even a brief tornado will be possible through 11 PM.

For the uninformed, 15-20mph wind now is considered "intense" The wind in the area reached 15-20 mph, according to CNN Meteorologist Gene Norman. It was so intense that it broke state Sen. Jamaal Bailey's umbrella as he was addressing reporters at the scene. A massive wind turbine in New York City crashes down onto a car https://www.foxcarolina.com/a-massive-wind-turbine-in-new-york-city-crashes-down/article_49f21efd-684e-5d6f-9635-3b1c60224d28.html?fbclid=IwAR0jw7-CJdkcJ9F3g1tn1aMGyzBhxK8KrYwNkpzT7jUfvlgvvfPN5Di83zo

Love model mayhem. 00z GFS - 2.12" precip this weekend. 06z GFS - 0.48" this weekend.

It would take a lot for anything frozen based on the 12z. The cold is very fleeting, and not really all that 'cold'.

Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Winter Storm Warnings for the TN line and the Smokies with Winter Weather Advisories for the NC mountains. 1-3" but with 3-6" above 3500' near the TN line. #wncwx #snOMG #tnwx #ncwx 116

Gotta love the headlines this morning. USA Today: Next week's Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US CBS News: Americans prepare for Arctic blast

Impressive lightning. Seeing the sky light up from storms 50+ miles away.

For our Northern Counties...

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0

* Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Slight risk has been dropped.

For the Raleigh area folks...

Have a great trip!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

I'll gladly take the rain without the severe factor. Dry around these parts.

Had one over this way as well... ...Summary... A brief tornado touched down 11 miles southwest of Clayton, in the Cleveland area of Johnston County, near the intersection of Cornwallis Road and Justin Drive and lifted near the intersection of Goldfield Drive and Justin Drive on July 23, 2019. Damage observed included minor shingle loss on several homes, numerous softwood trees snapped, and lawn furniture tossed a substantial distance. Damage is consistent with a brief tornado with maximum wind speeds of 80 to 90 mph.