Solak

0.08" last night.

Wasn't expecting this this evening... 806 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 805 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 11 miles southwest of Spartanburg, or near Moore, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Woodruff and Moore around 810 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include Enoree and Pauline.

Starting the day with a crisp 44 degrees. Missed out on yesterday's scattered sprinkles.

1.98 storm total yesterday. Still don't understand how, by CoCoRaHS standards, most of that (1.73 that fell between 7-noon) counts as May precipitation. Their game, their rules.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 15 mins · Today we announce the retirement of senior hurricane specialist Dr. Lixion Avila. "Lix" issued countless forecasts for hurricanes that included names like Gilbert, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Michael and Dorian. Now after 33 years of federal service, all of it at the National Hurricane Center, he's ready to enjoy the next chapter in his life. We will miss our friend and colleague, and wish him well! In this interview, he reflects on his career at NHC: https://www.weather.gov/careers/meteorology-avila-lixion

Wow! Lucky!

A chilly 41 to start the day.

From RAH: Models continue to suggest a quick hitting round of convection capable of producing heavy rain and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms moving into central NC from the west Wednesday evening, through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday and offshore by Thursday evening.

Any snow/sleet/graupel in the southern mtns along the TN border? Seeing some 'pink' returns on radar.

0.02" overnight.

And another... 750 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Rabun County in northeastern Georgia... Southeastern Macon County in western North Carolina... Northwestern Oconee County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 749 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Clayton, moving east at 40 mph.

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 740 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Greenville County in Upstate South Carolina... Northwestern Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Paris Mountain State Park, moving east at 40 mph.

0.10" on Thursday.

Also on the bright side, it also tempers the chance of severe weather, at least for 'our' area.

Boy, the GFS has really cut back on precipitation amounts for the next 2 systems. (RDU area). Now just showing 0.20 for Thursday, and 0.12 for the weekend event. Meanwhile, NWS is still calling for over an inch for tomorrow/tomorrow night. NAM 12z drops 2.38" tomorrow. So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll probably get some rain, and it could be a little, or could be a lot.

I guess if the storms won't come to them, they flock to the storms. 4/12 was the same way. Lots of new 'faces' in the forum.

down to 33 this morning. Chilly!

Picked up 0.25" overnight. temp dropped from 64 at 1:15AM to currently 44 at 8:15AM

Big winds overnight/morning hours for central NC. Widespread and frequent wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph are likely late tonight through midday to early afternoon Monday; and these will impact all of cntl NC both within and away from convection/ precipitation. Scattered to numerous gusts between 50-60 mph are also expected, with isolated ones in excess of 60 mph; and this may necessitate upgrade to a High Wind Warning. While not as widespread as the background flow and gusts noted above, convection will focus narrow corridors of intense, damaging wind gusts in excess of hurricane force (74 mph), as well as isolated tornadoes - one or two of which could be significant (EF2 or greater).

Central NC specific from latest RAH AFD. The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%) that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400- 500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat will be.

New day 3

Dropped down to 32 overnight. Brrrrr!

GFS has really pulled back on precip amounts for this next event. Gone from over 3.5" to now (12z Friday) just 0.67" (RDU area)

GFS 12z for 4/15

Missed the showers again yesterday. Been dry 13 out of the last 14 days. Probably a big glitch, but the 06z GFS today dumps 3.5" around here on Sun/Mon.